Electric cars.

[Chippy_Tea]

So we wait for it to happen for it to be proven to be true? I recall UK blackouts in the 70's - so it is true on this basis.

They were due to strikes

 

[Chippy_Tea]

I'm unable to comment on the impact on the grid - yet I am sceptical of the marketing hype of media and governments and car salesmen who will paint a rosy picture of just about everything they impose, it's "all for our benefit and there are no downsides to even consider (or debate)."

Funny you say you cannot comment yet you go on to say you are sceptical, which part of the article I posted did you thing was them piling the wool over our eyes?

I have reposted it below so members who may have missed it can read it.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

ELECTRIC VEHICLE GRID IMPACT​

Fact: If 80% of all passenger cars become electric, this would lead to a total increase of 10-15% in electricity consumption.

So far, the market entry of EVs has been very predictable and the electric grid is constantly being developed in parallel. Current EV market trends show low to moderate energy uptake rates.

The projected growth in e-mobility will not drive an immediate or substantial increase in total electrical-grid power demand, according to a study by McKinsey & Company. This means EV’s aren’t likely to cause any abrupt surprises or disruptions in our power supply and there is no need for new electricity-generation capacity in the near future.

If we take Germany as an example, EV growth won’t cause any large increases in power demand through 2030. On the contrary, EVs could add 1% to the total and require about five extra gigawatts (GW) of generation capacity. That amount could grow to roughly 4% by 2050, which would only require an additional capacity of about 20 GW. Moreover, this new-build capacity will likely involve renewables, including wind and solar power, with some gas-powered generation.

At the same time, electric vehicles are 5 to 6 times more energy-efficient than the best internal combustion engines (ICE) vehicle. In passenger cars, EVs consume 25% the amount of energy in comparison to ICE vehicles. E-trucks consume about 50% of their diesel equivalents’ own energy consumption.

This means that when a majority of the vehicles on our streets are electric, the total amount of energy consumed in transport is significantly less than what it is now. And electric vehicles only continue to get more efficient and green.

 

[Bernie]

I suspect we will be in total chaos at this stage anyway, so if you haven't escaped to your yacht already, then just down all remaining homebrew stocks and kiss your ass goodbye.

I would keep a beast of burden that doesn't use fossil fuels or batteries, in an apocalyptic world, rather than let it go.

 

[Stan's Brew]

That's an awful lot of doom and gloom about something that the evidence suggests is unlikely to happen.

In the UK only.

Have you considered that the articles saying things along the lines of 'blackouts will leave EVs stranded' and 'EVs will cause blackouts' are also propaganda by people who don't want to upset the status quo? There are an awful lot of people who gain by a slower adoption of electric vehicles.

I'm aware of their existence, but not bothered to research them as they are likely propaganda as you suggest. Out of interest, who gains through slower adoption?

Your last sentence also rather contradicts your original post. You wont believe government predictions that EVs are a viable future transport option that could have environmental benefits but will believe the Austrian Defence Ministry's prediction blackouts will occur. Is that the faint whiff of confirmation bias?

I didn't say I believed the Austrian MoD, I used the article to highlight the risk of blackouts in order to provide another angle to the debate, I think I've achieved this.

No confirmation bias, I own and operate a small electric outboard on a boat (6HP petrol equivalent). Not for the purposes of reducing CO2, not even with the intention of saving money although break-even is around 3-4 years depending on use, but for the purposes of reducing pollution and noise and having finer control for creek crawling and sneaking up on wildlife, that's my use case. My livelihood doesn't depend on an electric boat motor and speaking to other boat owners alot will be unable to afford the currently massive cost of converting to meet their use cases, so the market is rather restricted unless the prices drops significantly

In principle I am in favour of EVs for some of the same reasons as the boat motor for specific use cases, but because cars are more essential than boat motors then the risks of denial of use are correspondingly higher which is the area I am highlighting.

My view is that EVs, as for electric boat engines, are not currently financially viable for most people mostly based on high cost and range at this stage, this may improve, but as long as people are aware of the risks associated with adopting EVs at this stage, then it's your money your choice. All the hype is intended to make adoption faster without highlighting the risks.

I wonder if anyone is switching back to ICE after using EVs.

I see HMRC and the corporates currently incentivising employees to adopt EVs, I'm sure many will take the option of electric over ICE with lower tax (as long as use case allows). However not all corporates are providing this incentive as list prices for EVs are starting at approx £40K. They are probably doing this as Mark Carney threatened to bankrupt any company not falling into line with the Green agenda and non-incentivised drivers are not splashing out on £40K plus EVs, therefore the market is sluggish as a result. We already see the creeping imposition of the climate agenda restrictions for non-EV cars, eventually all will pay, all the incentives to adopt EV will evaporate once governments hit arbitrary targets as we've seen with other incentives for solar and insulation for example.

As an employee, unless you are fully onboard with the green agenda and perceive that you are saving the planet (or whatever the latest buzz is), then it is likely that you are still better off with a 2nd hand premium diesel/petrol and take the cash equivalent.

I would suggest that if anything the confirmation bias is from the green side where people are fully embedded in the green agenda and will happily pay the required high price to assuade their own moral guilt related to the subject (assuming that this cohort are not hypocritical about their green credentials, which is where our politicians appear to be). In my experience most people base their purchasing decisions on cost and need, 'saving the planet' is not high on their list of priorities.

 

[Stan's Brew]

They were due to strikes

Good spot, another example of a threat to the grid, there are many others, I'm sure

 

[Stan's Brew]

Funny you say you cannot comment yet you go on to say you are sceptical, which part of the article I posted did you thing was them piling the wool over our eyes?

I have reposted it below so members who may have missed it can read it.

I didn't see the source of the article, did you post the source along with the article?

Who sponsored the report by McKinsey?

 

[Chippy_Tea]

I didn't see the source of the article, did you post the source along with the article?

Here is one from earlier in the thread that has the link -

Myth 1: The electricity grid won’t be able to handle the increase in EVs​

Does the electricity grid have enough capacity for charging EVs?​

The most demand for electricity in recent years in the UK was for 62GW in 2002. Since then, the nation’s peak demand has fallen by roughly 16% due to improvements in energy efficiency.

Even if we all switched to EVs overnight, we believe demand would only increase by around 10%. So we’d still be using less power as a nation than we did in 2002 and this is well within the range of manageable load fluctuation.

The US grid is equally capable of handling more EVs on the roads – by the time 80% of the US owns an EV, this will only translate into a 10-15% increase in electricity consumption.1

A significant amount of electricity is used to refine oil for petrol and diesel. Fully Charged’s video Volts for Oil estimates that refining 1 gallon of petrol would use around 4.5kWh of electricity – so, as we start to use less petrol or diesel cars, some of that electricity capacity could become available.

Myth 2: The electricity used to charge EVs is created by burning fossil fuels, so there are still emissions involved​

More and more of our electricity now comes from renewable, green or clean energy sources, and zero-carbon power in Britain’s electricity mix has grown from less than 20% in 2010 to nearly 50% in 2021. With the growth in onshore and offshore wind farms and the closure of a number of coal plants, transport is in fact now the most polluting thing the UK does as a nation.

Our energy system is also becoming more flexible to maximise on this cleaner energy whenever it’s available. Apps like the WhenToPlugIn app, as well as new legislation and smart energy tariffs, are all helping us manage our electricity use – for example, Smart Chargers that can start or pause our EV charging to ensure it’s using the cleanest and cheapest power.

In New England and New York, only 0.1 to 2.7% of electricity is produced from coal and oil combined2 and, as electricity continues to decarbonise, these percentages will continue to reduce.

Read in full Busting the myths and misconceptions about electric vehicles | National Grid Group

 

[Stan's Brew]

A quick google of McKinsey reveals an agenda bias:

https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/world-economic-forum/overview

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Good spot, another example of a threat to the grid, there are many others, I'm sure

Nice try, we don't have coal mines anymore so that is not going to be a issue.

 

[Stan's Brew]

Yes, we are back to the

Nice try, we don't have coal mines anymore so that is not going to be a issue.

Are power station workers or power infrastructure workers in the UK & France (EDF supply some of our electricity) banned from striking? How immune are we from that cause?

 

[Chippy_Tea]

A quick google of McKinsey reveals an agenda bias:

https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/world-economic-forum/overview

Way too much to read, can you prove the grid will not be able to handle the extra demand i have posted two articles that say its not a problem all you have done is dismiss them as the ramblings of EV fanboys.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Are power station workers or power infrastructure workers in the UK & France (EDF supply some of our electricity) banned from striking? How immune are we from that cause?

FFS you really are clutching at straws now have you heard of any strikes being planned by these workers why would they suddenly go on strike as ECV's take off its not like they are shovelling coal into the reactor their jobs are not going to get harder but are going to get a lot more secure i cannot say the same for mine.

 

[Stan's Brew]

Way too much to read, can you prove the grid will not be able to handle the extra demand i have posted two articles that say its not a problem all you have done is dismiss them as the ramblings of EV fanboys.

Of course I can't prove anything, I didn't dismiss them, I highlighted that they have an agenda bias - due to links with the WEF and Davos.

 

[Stan's Brew]

FFS you really are clutching at straws now have you heard of any strikes being planned by these workers why would they suddenly go on strike as ECV's take off its not like they are shovelling coal into the reactor their jobs are not going to get harder but are going to get a lot more secure i cannot say the same for mine.

No straw clutching, if you think that there is little risk then that's great, I've no idea if these people would strike, just as I had no incling that nurses would strike, or there would be a war in Ukraine or a pandemic or ...

 

[Stu's Brews]

Out of interest, who gains through slower adoption?

A few examples...

Oil companies as they want to continue selling petrol and diesel so their profits don't dwindle.

Existing vehicle OEMs who have been slow to offer EVs within their range and need time to catch up without losing sales.

Any financial institutions that have vested interests in either of the above industries.

Possibly to a lesser extent; HMRC as they face a drop in tax revenue (although being mitigated through planned reform of vehicle excise duty).

 

[Stan's Brew]

The problem with any discussion related to the Green agenda is that [the majority of] people think that everyone thinks the that the root of all evil is CO2 - I don't, I think there is a healthy dose of bullsh!t about it all and retain a healthy scepticism.

 

[dad_of_jon]

So I follow this guy a lot. He is a qualified engineer and I have a lot of time for him.

It's a warning to not blindly follow msm hype.

TLDW: Integrated infrastructure needs to be in place for the Whole energy system otherwise rationing is a possibility. Of course if we had enough nuclear plants or batteries to store our renewables we'd be swinging. Only the lead time on nuclear is a major pain.

 

[Stan's Brew]

A few examples...

Oil companies as they want to continue selling petrol and diesel so their profits don't dwindle.

It would be interesting to see how much effort they are putting into a transition and if they are deliberately slowing adoption - I've not researched to provide a view though, my guess is that they have lobbied governments hard to come to an agreement to preserve profits.

Existing vehicle OEMs who have been slow to offer EVs within their range and need time to catch up without losing sales.

It's a cutthroat market, market forces dictate demand, are slow offering companies really losing sales to EV companies at this point in time, surely if governments are forcing companies to change or go bust then offerings will be spilling off forecourts aplenty?

Any financial institutions that have vested interests in either of the above industries.

Possibly to a lesser extent; HMRC as they face a drop in tax revenue (although being mitigated through planned reform of vehicle excise duty).

No way will large finance backers or HMRC lose, they control the market after all!

 

[Stu's Brews]

The problem with any discussion related to the Green agenda is that [the majority of] people think that everyone thinks the that the root of all evil is CO2 - I don't, I think there is a healthy dose of bullsh!t about it all and retain a healthy scepticism.

Nothing wrong with being sceptical, provided you are willing to listen to reasoned arguments for and against. And as far as I can tell, nobody has so much as uttered anything about 'green' or 'CO2' until now.

You've presented a legitimate concern about how blackouts might impact electric vehicle usage. Myself and others have countered with reasoned arguments that blackouts are unlikely and if they do happen the impact will either be negligible or not solely applicable to electric vehicles. However, you don't seem to be willing to consider changing your view in light of any evidence presented at you.

For what it's worth (and almost certainly repeating what I've said previously), I don't believe electric vehicles are the sole answer to the climate challenges we face. However, I do believe they have a role to play as the evidence shows their overall environmental impact is less than a petrol or diesel equivalent.