Electric cars.

[Chippy_Tea]

I’m really struggling to follow your argument but I want too. Can you point us all in the direction of some evidence that the electricity supply is going to run out.

I may have this wrong but think he means the predicted power cuts we may suffer this winter.

It's been well documented under normal circumstances there is enough electricity to charge EV's now and as they become more widespread in the future

 

[Alastair70]

It's been well documented under normal circumstances there is enough electricity to charge EV's now and as they become more widespread in the future

That's what I thought too. However, I'm always willing to challenge my pre-conceptions and change my point of view if the evidence dictates that I was wrong.

Also, I get really p155ed when people just repeat an unvalidated claim ad infinitum until it becomes accepted as fact (insert your favourite politician quotes here; Trump, Johnston, Hunt, Blair, Cameron etc. they all illustrate the point perfectly)

 

[Chippy_Tea]

​

Polcho posted - I just don’t don’t think encouraging the use of more electricity, when we clearly don’t have enough, is an interesting concept.​

Myth 1: The electricity grid won’t be able to handle the increase in EVs​

Does the electricity grid have enough capacity for charging EVs?​

The most demand for electricity in recent years in the UK was for 62GW in 2002. Since then, the nation’s peak demand has fallen by roughly 16% due to improvements in energy efficiency.

Even if we all switched to EVs overnight, we believe demand would only increase by around 10%. So we’d still be using less power as a nation than we did in 2002 and this is well within the range of manageable load fluctuation.

The US grid is equally capable of handling more EVs on the roads – by the time 80% of the US owns an EV, this will only translate into a 10-15% increase in electricity consumption.1

A significant amount of electricity is used to refine oil for petrol and diesel. Fully Charged’s video Volts for Oil estimates that refining 1 gallon of petrol would use around 4.5kWh of electricity – so, as we start to use less petrol or diesel cars, some of that electricity capacity could become available.

Myth 2: The electricity used to charge EVs is created by burning fossil fuels, so there are still emissions involved​

More and more of our electricity now comes from renewable, green or clean energy sources, and zero-carbon power in Britain’s electricity mix has grown from less than 20% in 2010 to nearly 50% in 2021. With the growth in onshore and offshore wind farms and the closure of a number of coal plants, transport is in fact now the most polluting thing the UK does as a nation.

Our energy system is also becoming more flexible to maximise on this cleaner energy whenever it’s available. Apps like the WhenToPlugIn app, as well as new legislation and smart energy tariffs, are all helping us manage our electricity use – for example, Smart Chargers that can start or pause our EV charging to ensure it’s using the cleanest and cheapest power.

In New England and New York, only 0.1 to 2.7% of electricity is produced from coal and oil combined2 and, as electricity continues to decarbonise, these percentages will continue to reduce.

Read in full Busting the myths and misconceptions about electric vehicles | National Grid Group

 

[Alastair70]

I know, that’s right in my echo chamber. What I’m interested in seeing is @Polcho setting out his argument properly. One side is clearly wrong, so some evidence to the contrary is needed or you’ve won hands down.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

That's what I thought too. However, I'm always willing to challenge my pre-conceptions and change my point of view if the evidence dictates that I was wrong.

I don't think there is any evidence to back up his argument, it'll be interesting to see what he comes up with.

 

[Alastair70]

Given that we’re now on page 7 of discussion on an offshoot of another wild claim on a different thread, I fully expect an attempt at a firm rebuttal from the OP.

 

[Rodcx500z]

my take on this is, the earth has sufferd five extinctions none of those were caused by humans, the last one was 65.5 millon years ago and wiped out the dino's, This will give you an idea of what the experts say on the sixth one, What is the sixth mass extinction and what can we do about it? | Stories | WWF

 

[dad_of_jon]

I googled uk energy production forecast and then uk energy consumption forecast then filtered out the older results and came to the following conclusion. If heating and vehicles move to electric at the higher end of the predicted range there will be an issue with providing power at peak demand times as the infrastructure required to produce more power would lag behind. If you factor in a predicted imminent recession this will give some respite for any sensible government to crack on with energy infrastructure capital projects at this time to fix the gap in capacity.

Now I wonder why more isn't being done to help householders generate their own power which would be another way to reduce the potential gap, ah yes they'd rather offer us a grant to buy something that keeps us reliant on the national grid. The're not that keen on helping us become more energy self sufficient

 

[foxy]

Now I wonder why more isn't being done to help householders generate their own power which would be another way to reduce the potential gap, ah yes they'd rather offer us a grant to buy something that keeps us reliant on the national grid. The're not that keen on helping us become more energy self sufficient

I think that would be part of the solution. I felt guilty for about 5 minutes signing up to a 68 cents FiT knowing that poor pensioners and the not so well off were subsidising my FiT. Governments should forget about a FiT and give subsidise solar panels and batteries for all houses. As for those who say they can't charge kerbside, have a look at this.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-03/electric-vehicle-charging-trial-access-challenge/101605792

 

[Hoppopotamus]

A lot of the buses here are electric or hybrid. As soon as you head out of the city, the provision is patchy at best.

The main problem is with the use of the words "a lot".
We live in what is designated as a large commuter village - there are no buses at peak commuter times and the advice is to travel outside of these times.

 

[StJayJay]

These are my thoughts on EV ownership over the last year. We bought a plug-in hybrid last year after we visited our dealership looking at options as we were approaching the end of our finance term on the family motor. There was a hybrid just arrived so no waiting time. Most of the driving is fairly short but we do a few trips through the year from Central Scotland to my folk’s near Wigan, so some range anxiety steered us away from full electric at the moment.
Good experience so far, with lots of positives: average driving does not result in the ICE coming on very much and can get to around 50 miles on just electric, which dips on the motorway. If I drive sensibly, I can get to and from work on electric, about a 40 mile round trip, most is motorway. I do my weekly shop at a Tesco 6 miles away, they do free EV charging at the moment and am in long enough to get a charge covering the journey.
Mostly, I have it on in hybrid mode though and let it decide.
I typically do around 1000 miles per month now I’m getting into the office more and am refilling the 60l petrol tank around every 6 weeks so it’s a touch over 100mpg between fill ups.
That figure can drop like a stone on the odd longer motorway journeys, if I drive at 70 all the way, it is about 49mpg for the journey, one journey was as low as 25mpg however as I may have strayed over 70 once or twice.

Getting the EV point was somewhat of a faff mainly due to the first company, BP Pulse, as they came recommended by the dealership. It was ok at first but could not get a date for installation for months after as they don’t have enough engineers. Jumped ship and restarted the process with Hive/Scottish Gas, had it installed quickly, no problems.
Charging the battery has noticeably increased our electric consumption which is obviously an increasing issue with costs of kWhs, but it’s still a lot cheaper per mile than petrol.
No benefit for VED due to the ICE, costing £535.50 a year. Slightly ironic that our other car, a 1.2petrol Pug 108 probably uses just as much petrol through the year, but the VED rate for that is £0.
I feel much more comfortable about going fully electric in the future. I am imagining that once the 108 is needing replacing, we’ll get a smaller full EV for the local runarounds.

 

[Polcho]

I’m really struggling to follow your argument but I want too. Can you point us all in the direction of some evidence that the electricity supply is going to run out.

Firstly, I’m not against electric vehicles, anything to reduce global warming and the effects thereof is of great importance.

All I’m saying is, on the one hand we have the government telling the power companies to prime us for power cuts, on the other hand, we are actually stopping the sale of combustion engine vehicles by 2030.

My point was that all of a sudden, we will have this massive drain on the grid, when presently, we are being braced for power cuts, that’s all

 

[Chippy_Tea]

My point was that all of a sudden, we will have this massive drain on the grid, when presently, we are being braced for power cuts, that’s all

As it says below -

"in the unlikely event that insufficient gas supply coincides with reduced electricity imports from continental Europe, it could be forced to implement planned, temporary blackouts to manage demand"

this is not because under normal circumstances we cannot generate enough electricity it's a set of unforeseen circumstances that may cause a problem and cause us to rethink how we use electricity, i see they have already discussed the use of off-peak electricity for those with smart meters to take the strain off peak time usage. (for general electricity use not just EV charging)


Western Europe’s supplies of oil and natural gas are currently under significant strain in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, contributing to mounting cost-of-living pressures. In its Winter Outlook Report, the National Grid Electricity System Operator has warned that in the “unlikely event” that insufficient gas supply coincides with reduced electricity imports from continental Europe, it could be forced to implement planned, temporary blackouts to manage demand.
https://www.lewissilkin.com/en/insi...may-need-to-prepare-for-electricity-shortages

 

[Bernie]

Firstly, I’m not against electric vehicles, anything to reduce global warming and the effects thereof is of great importance.
All I’m saying is, on the one hand we have the government telling the power companies to prime us for power cuts, on the other hand, we are actually stopping the sale of combustion engine vehicles by 2030.
My point was that all of a sudden, we will have this massive drain on the grid, when presently, we are being braced for power cuts, that’s all

Car drivers are notoriously reactionary. Any change must be resisted. Unusual designs are derided, new traffic systems detested, engine and driver management decried.
Any idea that helps maintain the status quo is given credibility.
Internal combustion engine (ICE) cars will not be sold after 2030. How can that contribute to a sudden drain on electrical power?There will be a gradual tail off as fewer ICE cars are on the road after 2030. Those drivers might even enjoy a deflation in petrol prices. As it is, electricity is already a major energy source in transport, mainly trains, trams, underground and other minor systems.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

The thing that will stop the majority switching over the next few years is a lack of options to charge if you don't have off street parking, when eventually something like this is installed in our streets we may see a big increase in sales but that will depend on what the companies installing them are going to charge for us to keep our EV's topped up.

 

[dad_of_jon]

Car drivers are notoriously reactionary. Any change must be resisted. Unusual designs are derided, new traffic systems detested, engine and driver management decried.
Any idea that helps maintain the status quo is given credibility.
Internal combustion engine (ICE) cars will not be sold after 2030. How can that contribute to a sudden drain on electrical power?There will be a gradual tail off as fewer ICE cars are on the road after 2030. Those drivers might even enjoy a deflation in petrol prices. As it is, electric power is already a major energy source in transport, mainly trains, trams, underground and other minor systems.

good points there. I'm hoping at around 57 yrs old I've bought my last car and it's 100% petrol. but if fully autonomous driving vehicles do come to fruition in wales with the p155 poor public transport and the unreliable service we have in wales's seconds biggest city I might have to dig into my wallet one last time.

 

[Alastair70]

Firstly, I’m not against electric vehicles, anything to reduce global warming and the effects thereof is of great importance.
All I’m saying is, on the one hand we have the government telling the power companies to prime us for power cuts, on the other hand, we are actually stopping the sale of combustion engine vehicles by 2030.
My point was that all of a sudden, we will have this massive drain on the grid, when presently, we are being braced for power cuts, that’s all

Hi Polcho, I know what you were saying. I was asking if you could provide some evidence for your claims. I’ll help you out here. Drawing a direct link to whats happening today to how you perceive things are going to be next decade isn’t a valid argument. I could equally draw a similar erroneous link between the growth of renewable energy over the last decade and declare that we’ll actually be carbon neutral before next Christmas.
Also, I personally don’t think that there will be a sudden massive drain on the grid. As I have said I’d be to challenge that view if you’ve got something to get us all thing about.

 

[Stu's Brews]

but if fully autonomous driving vehicles do come to fruition in wales with the p155 poor public transport and the unreliable service we have in wales's seconds biggest city I might have to dig into my wallet one last time.

I think you can keep your wallet firmly closed on that one.

The industry is now accepting that fully autonomous vehicles are almost certainly never going to happen due to the sheer number of variables that they'd have to deal with.

We may see them employed in controlled environments such as motorways but in town centres there are just too many possibilities of what could happen. There is also a significant moral issue around the decision making that must occur at the point the AI driving the vehicle realises it has to either sacrifice it's occupants or another human as an accident is unavoidable.

At our company we have recently made the decision not to pursue fully autonomous driving as it's simple a massive cash drain with almost no payback.

 

[dad_of_jon]

I think you can keep your wallet firmly closed on that one.
The industry is now accepting that fully autonomous vehicles are almost certainly never going to happen due to the sheer number of variables that they'd have to deal with.
We may see them employed in controlled environments such as motorways but in town centres there are just too many possibilities of what could happen. There is also a significant moral issue around the decision making that must occur at the point the AI driving the vehicle realises it has to either sacrifice it's occupants or another human as an accident is unavoidable.
At our company we have recently made the decision not to pursue fully autonomous driving as it's simple a massive cash drain with almost no payback.

until AI becomes as intelligent as skynet and decides to crash all autonomous vehicles into people or other vehicles containing people. and then throwing in a few nukes for good measure.

 

[Bernie]

There is also a significant moral issue around the decision making that must occur at the point the AI driving the vehicle realises it has to either sacrifice it's occupants or another human as an accident is unavoidable.

That decision would not be made by artificial intelligence but would be programmed into the car's driving software by a a person following a political decision.
If you were driving would you sacrifice the car occupants or the other person? The probability an event seems rather remote, though.
If it were proven that autonomous driving reduced road fatalities overall, what would your company do?