Covid-19 the second wave.

[Leon103]

The thing is, isn't Wales in lockdown? Aren't they under Labour? Perhaps it's a virus thing rather than a political thing?

Lockdown from Friday. The Tories in Wales aren't happy with the lock down.

 

[Rodcx500z]

My sense of smell has almost been knocked out completely, but the one thing I can smell is ...sewage... and some smells when cooking meat, all those "low" earthy/meaty notes. But only the things that are meant to smell like that.

I can't smell burning (which is a bit of a problem) or fruity top-notes.

Hope your better soon

 

[The-Engineer-That-Brews]

Good (free) article in today’s Economist, addressing the pros and cons of relaxing controls to promote herd immunity by letting young and healthy people catch the virus, versus continued widespread lockdowns: link
The bottom line is that the expert scientific community seems to be deeply divided on this point, so what hope for us armchair pundits?

 

[marshbrewer]

so what hope for us armchair pundits?

I'm more of a sofa expert.

 

[simon12]

I have been looking for some strong evidence of somewhere reaching some level of herd immunity for a while and not found anything conclusive but these are my latest observations. I took the 35 local authorities with death rates over 100 per 100K and looked to see if they have over 300 (top 50) or under 50 (bottom 50) cases per 100K in the last week. Observations 15 of the worst affected (highest death rate) places are in the highest 50 for recent cases and only 2 are in the bottom 50 (there actually in the bottom 20). Conclusion most of the worst affected places are still getting the most cases so are not showing any signs of herd immunity, only Folkstone and Ashford (5th and 20th lowest cases) are. So nothing remotely conclusive but keep an eye on Folkstone and Ashford.

 

[Cheshire Cat]

Herd immunity is the equivalent of WW1 battle tactics I.e. March men into machine gun fire. That didn't work neither will herd immunity.

 

[marshbrewer]

No it isn't, it really isn't.

Herd Immunity is herd immunity. It is an accepted strategy, oft achieved by the use of vaccination.

 

[Falco]

No it isn't, it really isn't.

Herd Immunity is herd immunity. It is an accepted strategy, oft achieved by the use of vaccination.

Exactly so, the safest and most humane method of attaining it has historically been by using a vaccine. Any other method of achieving herd immunity isn’t really a sensible option.

 

[marshbrewer]

That really depends on what illness you are trying to combat. Certainly, something like smallpox, vaccination would be the way to go. German Measels, meh, until we had the MMR *** we worried less about it and basically went for naturally obtained her d immunity.

Presently, scientists appear split on Covid, but it's worth noting that none of them are advocating that we *don't* use a vaccine, they just differ on how we get there given the different risks to different sections of the population and balancing the possible harms of things like lock downs.

Unfortunately, the Guardian has embarrassed itself by printing nonsense bout herd immunity being an imaginary thing being advocated by evil fascists or something, so it has become a loaded word.

 

[The-Engineer-That-Brews]

I have to say I’ve felt much happier since I stopped consuming media.

 

[Falco]

I have to say I’ve felt much happier since I stopped consuming media.

Agree with that, however as much as we’d like to think we’re immune from consuming the news media, it’s still difficult to avoid even on here

 

[trueblue]

How can us laymen decide what is right when even the scientists can't agree. There was an eminent virologist on the radio the other day claiming no virus has ever been wiped out or even controlled by herd immunity. His only solution was a vaccine.

 

[Saisonator]

Herd immunity is the equivalent of WW1 battle tactics I.e. March men into machine gun fire. That didn't work neither will herd immunity.

Bit of an hysterical analogy for a virus with an average mortality age of 82?
Also it may need to work because the vaccine is not yet guaranteed to be effective.

 

[marshbrewer]

Again, vaccines work by herd immunity.

They are not different things.

 

[obscure]

How can us laymen decide what is right when even the scientists can't agree. There was an eminent virologist on the radio the other day claiming no virus has ever been wiped out or even controlled by herd immunity. His only solution was a vaccine.

Sadly only two major virus have being complexly eliminated after they became endemic smallpox and rinderpest. We are getting close on Polio and we where getting really close on Measles (at least in the west) unfortunately the Anti vaccination groups have put paid to that. The fact that Measles a highly contagious disease remained endemic in the UK until a concentrated vaccination programme was brought in strongly suggests that you are not going to eliminate or contain a disease through “naturally obtained heard immunity”.

 

[Cheshire Cat]

Bit of an hysterical analogy for a virus with an average mortality age of 82?
Also it may need to work because the vaccine is not yet guaranteed to be effective.

You’ve misspelled historical. Letting old people die is not a solution.

 

[Cheshire Cat]

Sadly only two major virus have being complexly eliminated after they became endemic smallpox and rinderpest. We are getting close on Polio and we where getting really close on Measles (at least in the west) unfortunately the Anti vaccination groups have put paid to that. The fact that Measles a highly contagious disease remained endemic in the UK until a concentrated vaccination programme was brought in strongly suggests that you are not going to eliminate or contain a disease through “naturally obtained heard immunity”.

Bang on.

 

[marshbrewer]

You’ve misspelled historical. Letting old people die is not a solution.

I don't believe anyone is suggesting that, to be fair

 

[Saisonator]

You’ve misspelled historical. Letting old people die is not a solution.

I believe the idea is to shield the elderly, but I am sure you knew that already.

 

[Cheshire Cat]

I believe the idea is to shield the elderly, but I am sure you knew that already.

The current regime is to protect the elderly but herd immunity isn’t.