Covid-19 the second wave.

[marshbrewer]

The current regime is to protect the elderly but herd immunity isn’t.

One final time.

Herd immunity is, in simple terms, the prevention of an illness by making sure that enough of the population are resistant to it that it can't spread. This resistance can come through vaccination, people having the illness and developing immunity, or a combination of both.

We can all have lots of jolly and invigorating discussions about the best way to achieve this, but herd immunity is just herd immunity, and is the most common way of combating infectious diseases; the only other way is a cure - where we don't worry about an infectious disease because it becomes of no consequence because we can cure it.

It has nothing to do with letting a certain section of the population die.

 

[the_quick]

Not sure when you guys say scientists are divided you man that letter that allegedly 4k scientists have signed. They advocated to shield elderly and leave younger just catch it.
First problem, lots of what seem to be healthy people catch it has something long covid, for month feeling weak and unable to function.
Second lots of people might not be aware of their underling health issues
Third Britain has huge number of obese people, covid is very dangerous to that group
And Fourth - Sky new has analysed that letter and lots of those who signed are therapists (not doctors or scientists), homeopaths and clearly fake names.
More serious scientists are very doubtful we can reach natural herd immunity - as virus does mutate (not as quick as cold) and the anti bodies disappear with time, people can get reinfection. But mostly they say herd immunity with Covid would be unethical and against our morality.
The main problem is that scientists still don't know enough. All of this are theories.

 

[marshbrewer]

More serious scientists are very doubtful we can reach natural herd immunity - as virus does mutate (not as quick as cold) and the anti bodies disappear with time, people can get reinfection.

If that is / was the case, the the only course of action would be to go back to normal and live with the death toll, as a vaccine would be of no use by definition.

 

[Saisonator]

The current regime is to protect the elderly but herd immunity isn’t.

The elderly are locked away until the rest of the population reach levels of immunity that makes it safe for the elderly to resume normal life. I have never heard or read a herd immunity advocate want the elderly to be part of the population catching the virus and obtaining immunity.

 

[Saisonator]

Not sure when you guys say scientists are divided you man that letter that allegedly 4k scientists have signed. They advocated to shield elderly and leave younger just catch it.
First problem, lots of what seem to be healthy people catch it has something long covid, for month feeling weak and unable to function.
Second lots of people might not be aware of their underling health issues
Third Britain has huge number of obese people, covid is very dangerous to that group
And Fourth - Sky new has analysed that letter and lots of those who signed are therapists (not doctors or scientists), homeopaths and clearly fake names.
More serious scientists are very doubtful we can reach natural herd immunity - as virus does mutate (not as quick as cold) and the anti bodies disappear with time, people can get reinfection. But mostly they say herd immunity with Covid would be unethical and against our morality.
The main problem is that scientists still don't know enough. All of this are theories.

Plenty of top scientists in relevant fields signed the Great Barrington Declaration.

 

[simon12]

Sadly only two major virus have being complexly eliminated after they became endemic smallpox and rinderpest.

Spanish flu springs to mind also bird flu swine flu SARS. More than 2 anyway.

 

[obscure]

Spanish flu springs to mind also bird flu swine flu SARS. More than 2 anyway.

SARS never became endemic in the population, (just over 8000 reported cases) as for Spanish flu H1N1 is still very much around (although has mutated over time) and it and other variants of the influenza virus still kill people every year.

 

[Leon103]

Do we know we can't catch it more than once

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Coronavirus infections continue to rise across the UK, according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics.

It estimates cases have risen by a quarter to more than 35,200 a day in England.

Infection rates have been highest among older teenagers and young adults in recent weeks.

It comes as stricter rules come into force for millions more people across the UK.

Around one in 130 people you might meet in the street in England had coronavirus in the week to 16 October, data from the ONS infection survey suggests.

This compares with one in 180 in Wales and Scotland, and one in 100 in Northern Ireland.

The highest levels of the virus continue to be in the north-west and north-east of England.

Meanwhile, the R number has decreased slightly and is now estimated to be between 1.2 and 1.4. That means every 10 people with the virus pass it on to 12 or 14 others, on average.

Full article - Coronavirus infections continue to rise across UK

 

[marshbrewer]

We'll, at least the R number is dropping.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

Do we know we can't catch it more than once

That's one of the key questions that we aren't sure about at the moment.

It can happen, but at the moment the well-documented cases are few and far between - I think I saw a figure of 36 documented cases out of >40 million people infected. But even then, one seems to get protection from the first dose so the second time gives relatively mild symptoms - you may feel pretty flu-like grotty but you shouldn't be needing hospital. So it's probably that there's more reinfections that we don't know about, just because the symptoms are mild.

So it seems that at the moment, you can't get a life-threatening second infection, but you may well be able to transmit it during a second infection (although probably at a lower rate as transmission is related to severity) and you may need time off work to get over it.

There's also the possibility of new strains arising that can overcome existing immunity to a greater or lesser extent, in which case we'd be in a similar situation as flu in needing a shot of a new vaccine every year (but probably rather more deadly than flu, at least in the early years).

That may change as we get more data, but that seems to be the current picture.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

Just on the "scientists disagree" thing - it's easy to manufacture the appearance of scientific disagreement. It was a common trick played by the tobacco companies, get a scientist to imply the consensus is not settled in order to bamboozle non-specialist politicians. "The scientists disagree" is how they avoided major restrictions on tobacco for a good 20 years or so after the vast majority of cancer specialists were convinced that smoking caused lung cancer etc.

Some of the most useful people for these purposes are people in neighbouring fields who from the outside sound like they might plausibly have expertise in the matter in question. They can also be the easiest to mislead, as their great competence in one field leads them to all sorts of false assumptions about how a neighbouring field works, it's a bit like a car driver thinking they can fly a plane, or Real Madrid playing cricket. A classic example is Linus Pauling, a two-time Nobel prize winner who ended up obsessing over vitamin C as a cure for cancer and other things. (which it's not)

It's notable that the three main people behind the Great Barrington Declaration are eminent in their fields, but not in viral epidemiology. That immediately raises my suspicions. Whereas it's not too hard to find specialists in the epidemiology of respiratory and viral diseases in the signatories of the John Snow Memorandum opposing it - like Debby Bogaert and Rupert Beale who work on the biology of pneumonia and flu respectively, and Nahid Bhadelia - leader of a project against viral hemorrhagic fevers in Uganda/Congo. And that's just some of the B's!

Just generally, I think every single person I've seen who works on SARS1/MERS/Ebola, has been in the "do everything you can to stop it" camp - and it's notable that the Asian countries that were most exposed to SARS1 and the African countries exposed to Ebola, have been some of the most successful in stopping SARS2 early and getting their economies back to something like "normal". Whereas the countries who have toyed with a more laissez-faire approach have been the ones with the highest mortality rates and biggest hits to their economies.

Don't be the equivalent of the people in the 1990s who thought smoking was fine "because the scientists disagree". Don't be on the cricket team with Cristiano Ronaldo rather than Ben Stokes.

 

[simon12]

Sadly only two major virus have being complexly eliminated after they became endemic smallpox and rinderpest. We are getting close on Polio and we where getting really close on Measles (at least in the west) unfortunately the Anti vaccination groups have put paid to that. The fact that Measles a highly contagious disease remained endemic in the UK until a concentrated vaccination programme was brought in strongly suggests that you are not going to eliminate or contain a disease through “naturally obtained heard immunity”.

OK try putting that the other way round, except for the ones you mention every virus in the history of mankind has been eliminated through “naturally obtained heard immunity” or is still about and only 1 has caused our government to restrict when we can visit friends and family.

 

[marshbrewer]

Wow @Northern_Brewer - trying to subtlety trash Dr. Sunetra Gupta by hinting that she is batshit crazy or corrupt like them evil smoking companies, and that she doesn't work in a relevant field, etc etc.

Classy.


Also, scientific nonsense.

 

[Cheshire Cat]

We in Warrington are moving to tier 3 next week oh joy.

 

[marshbrewer]

We in Warrington are moving to tier 3 next week oh joy.

I dont want to appear antagonistic, but I got the impression you were pro-lockdown and against those wanting to open things up? So, isn't that a good thing from your point of view?

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Having looked at the tier 3 rules below i can honestly say it would not effect my life one bit its basically what i have been doing since day one.


What is very high level/Tier 3 lockdown?

For areas with a very high level of infections. The Government will set a baseline of measures for any area in this local alert level. Consultation with local authorities will determine additional measures.

The baseline means the measures below are in place:

• Pubs and bars must close, and can only remain open where they operate as if they were a restaurant - which means serving substantial meals, like a main lunchtime or evening meal. They may only serve alcohol as part of such a meal
• Wedding receptions are not allowed
• People must not meet anybody outside their household or support bubble in any indoor or outdoor setting, whether at home or in a public space. The “Rule of Six” applies in open public spaces like parks and beaches
• People should try to avoid travelling outside the ‘very high’ area they are in, or entering a ‘very high’ area, other than for things like work, education, accessing youth services, to meet caring responsibilities or if they are in transit
• People should avoid staying overnight in another part of the UK if they are resident in a ‘very high’ area, or avoid staying overnight in a ‘very high’ area if they are resident elsewhere

 

[Northern_Brewer]

Wow @Northern_Brewer - trying to subtlety trash Dr. Sunetra Gupta by hinting that she is batshit crazy or corrupt like them evil smoking companies, and that she doesn't work in a relevant field, etc etc.

Of course I'm not saying she's batshit crazy - but at the same time she's just one person. You are trying to appeal to authority by weight of numbers of specialists -"the scientists are divided". My point was that the nature of science is that you generally don't get 100% unanimity on these things until a long time after the science is broadly settled. Obviously we are in a dynamic situation at the moment, but the fact is that the overwhelming majority of virologists and those involved in fighting SARS/MERS/Ebola and similar diseases in the field disagree with Great Barrington.

It is "nonsense" to say that those kind of people are divided on the subject, regardless of what one's personal preferences are.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

Having looked at the tier 3 rules below i can honestly say it would not effect my life one bit its basically what i have been doing since day one.

Well this is part of the problem, until yesterday there was little support for businesses in Tier 1/2 despite some having sales down 50-70%. It's another reason why months of half-arsedness is actually worse than just doing a short hard lockdown.

We now have some data that suggests that if anything the 10pm curfew slightly increases the average number of contacts (but not significantly) :
https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covi...0201019-CoMix-national_local_restrictions.pdf

 

[marshbrewer]

Short hard lockdown? What would you hope that would achieve, other than kicking the can down the road a couple of weeks?