Covid-19 the second wave.

[Benfleet Brewery]

Early indications from the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine tests are that the vaccine can reduce transmission. Should that be proven. I suppose you would reverse your stance? If not, why not?

Until it is proven to prevent or substantially reduce the possibility of transmission the vaccines should be given as a matter of priority to those most at risk of dying or becoming seriously ill if they catch it. Until then, the best way to reduce transmission is to close the places where it is most likely to be spread. At the moment that is secondary schools and colleges.

 

[Appleyard]

Until it is proven to prevent or substantially reduce the possibility of transmission the vaccines should be given as a matter of priority to those most at risk of dying or becoming seriously ill if they catch it. Until then, the best way to reduce transmission is to close the places where it is most likely to be spread. At the moment that is secondary schools and colleges.

So that's a long-winded way of saying "Yes", from what I can work out.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

Yes. Perhaps schoolchildren and students should be some of the first in line for the vaccine.

It's easy to say things like that - but what that means is making some decisions about who has to give up their place in the vaccine queue so that the kids can be "some of the first in line".

Should kids be ahead of 80-year-olds? 70 yos? Nurses? Carehome workers? Bus drivers? Working the tills at Lidl?

 

[Covrich]

I didn't think kid's were getting it at all as it stands? Or did I misread that?

 

[Covrich]

Although and I have no idea on figures but could giving it to younger people or kids who are sprwsding it hasten cutting the supply.

Saying that with it coming from everywhere I'm not sure how that can be true though.

 

[An Ankoù]

In Australia we're even testing the beer.

You seem to have got your priorities right over there. I suppose covid might be considered a fault in some beers.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

I didn't think kid's were getting it at all as it stands? Or did I misread that?

Current UK government guidance says "There is very limited data on vaccination in adolescents, with no data on vaccination in younger children, at this time. The committee advises that only those children at very high risk of exposure and serious outcomes, such as older children with severe neuro-disabilities that require residential care, should be offered vaccination. "

In general, vaccines are only tested on 18+ to start with, but now that the vaccines look good in adults they can move on to testing younguns - it's possible the dose may need tweaking given that they generally have stronger immune systems, so don't be surprised if there's some reports of reactions in kids given adult doses.

The current vaccine supply is going to be flat out doing adults for the time being in any case.

 

[Appleyard]

It's easy to say things like that - but what that means is making some decisions about who has to give up their place in the vaccine queue so that the kids can be "some of the first in line".

Should kids be ahead of 80-year-olds? 70 yos? Nurses? Carehome workers? Bus drivers? Working the tills at Lidl?

It depends on whether or not you want infection control. Given the context of the above couple of posts, of course.

 

[Appleyard]

it's possible the dose may need tweaking given that (children) generally have stronger immune systems, so don't be surprised if there's some reports of reactions in kids given adult doses.

Why would there be reactions?

 

[Brewnaldo]

Covid is mild for the vast majority, even more vast in the case of kids. Why vaccinate them at all? Concentrate on those who are likely to require hospital treatment if they were to catch it surely. Hospital capacity is the bottleneck between us and normality. Once the vulnerable population have been vaccinated, case loads surely become largely irrelevant.

 

[Cheshire Cat]

I didn't think kid's were getting it at all as it stands? Or did I misread that?

My 9 year old grandson tested positive for it as did another child at his school.

 

[obscure]

Covid is mild for the vast majority, even more vast in the case of kids. Why vaccinate them at all? Concentrate on those who are likely to require hospital treatment if they were to catch it surely. Hospital capacity is the bottleneck between us and normality. Once the vulnerable population have been vaccinated, case loads surely become largely irrelevant.

In the long term the logic is the same as for vaccinating children against flu, it’s not that it’s very likely that they personally will get severely ill, but that they are likely to pass it into grandparents, or other elderly individual. Assuming COVID is going to be with us for a long time (and assuming a mixture of mutation and immunity not being permanent) I can easily see the COVID vaccine becoming another annual jab for many of us just like the flu.

Regardless it’s going to be quite some time before I expect to see any return to normality, and I suspect it will be a gradual reduction in restrictions I.e. masks will probably be the norm in shops for most of next year, but we hopefully will be able to start going to pubs and restaurants again before too long. I am also curious what the impact of the restrictions will be on other seasonal respiratory illness I.e. flu, colds etc.

 

[trueblue]

I didn't think kid's were getting it at all as it stands? Or did I misread that?

My Grandsons school closed a week early because of the amount of cases, two of the years at my Granddaughters school the same and two people at work are isolating because their children have it, all different schools.

 

[marshbrewer]

Hopefully, lateral flow testing in schools, although known to be imperfect, could assist in targeted self isolation and catching some cases before they spread it about, to dampen things down until we achieve herd immunity through vaccination + recovered peeps.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

It depends on whether or not you want infection control. Given the context of the above couple of posts, of course.

The average bin man or Lidl worker is in contact with far more households, and more elderly etc, than the average school kid. As I say, it's easy to say put group X up the priority list, but you have to be aware that it has to be matched by an equal commitment to putting another group down the list.

Why would there be reactions?

You expect some reactions as the immune system sets to work recognising what's in any vaccine, and you tend to get more reactions in younger people as they have stronger immune systems. That's why one ends up with some vaccines having a lower dose for kids and a higher dose for the elderly, to tailor the response to the strength of their immune systems.

Fortunately the SARS2 vaccines seem pretty good as far as side-effects go.

Covid is mild for the vast majority, even more vast in the case of kids. Why vaccinate them at all? Concentrate on those who are likely to require hospital treatment if they were to catch it surely. Hospital capacity is the bottleneck between us and normality. Once the vulnerable population have been vaccinated, case loads surely become largely irrelevant.

You're right on one level, that hospital capacity is one of the things that should be used as a key metric - but at the same time you're ignoring the fact that 5-10% of all cases end up with long COVID, which can be hugely debilitating and potentially could be a huge drain on health resources in the future - like polio only worse.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Scots have been urged to stay at home and not celebrate Hogmanay with other households as daily Covid-19 case numbers hit a record high.
A further 1,895 cases were reported on Tuesday - the highest number ever logged on a single day in Scotland.
The whole Scottish mainland is in the highest level of restrictions in a bid to contain a new strain of the virus.
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said it was "especially vital" people did not mix indoors with other households.
The 1,895 cases reported on Tuesday was double the number logged on Monday, with 14.4% of tests returning a positive result.
Ms Sturgeon said there had been "quite a big jump in cases", although there could be a "Christmas lag" in reporting some results.

She said the new strain of Covid-19 was "contributing to faster spread" of the virus, with a rising trend across the country and particular concerns over Shetland and the south of Scotland.
The first minister said: "The main message to people is to make sure you are not visiting other people's houses just now. Unfortunately that includes Hogmanay and New Year.
"This is a time of year I know people enjoy getting together, but that's not safe to do this year.
"As we head into the Hogmanay and new year period I really do appeal to people to say out of the homes of others, celebrate new year in your own home only with your own household."

Full article - Covid in Scotland: 'Stay at home' Hogmanay plea as cases hit record high - BBC News

 

[Chippy_Tea]

BBC News, I hour ago -

The third surge of Covid-19 cases is expected in the middle of January, the chair of NI's British Medical Association (BMA) has said.

Dr Tom Black warned that more cases of a new variant of coronavirus are likely to be seen in the next few weeks, as is now happening in parts of England.

But he said that as more people are vaccinated, there should be some improvement in February and March.

It comes as 14 further Covid-19-related deaths have been recorded in NI.

Thirteen of those deaths occurred from Monday while the other death happened on another date.

It takes the Department of Health's total to 1,305.

A further 1,566 cases of Covid-19 were confirmed in the past 24 hours.

"We would expect to see a peak of hospital admissions and demands in probably the second and third week in January," Dr Black told BBC News NI.

"Hopefully we will keep the pressure off the intensive care units because that's a real bottleneck with patient care and with the vaccination hopefully we'll see some improvement in February and March."

Roisin Coulter, the lead director for the rollout of the Covid-19 vaccine programme for the South Eastern Trust, said the rollout "has given us hope for managing the third surge of Covid which we all know is going to come in mid-January".

"This is one of the key enablers to help us protect the most vulnerable, our patients and our clients and our staff, therefore hopefully reducing the demand on our hospital services."


Six-week lockdown
On Monday Health Minister Robin Swann warned the NI public that house parties to mark New Year's Eve could be "super-spreader" events for coronavirus.
Northern Ireland is currently in a six week lockdown, with strict restrictions in place.

During the first week of the lockdown, which started on 26 December, no gatherings - indoor or outdoor - are permitted between 20:00 GMT and 06:00 each day.

Meanwhile in the Republic of Ireland, 79-year-old Annie Lynch has become the first person in the country to receive the Covid-19 vaccine.

The grandmother of 10, from Dublin, said she was "very privileged" and felt like "there is a bit of hope there now", Irish national broadcaster RTÉ reports.

 

[Appleyard]

The average bin man or Lidl worker is in contact with far more households, and more elderly etc, than the average school kid.

Really? Average 27 in a class, 282 per primary school (source: DoE). So the primary pupil spends X hours "in contact with" as you put it 26 others, periodically mingling with 281 others (to say nothing of teachers, teaching assistants, "dinner ladies", other staff), before going home.

To add to that, going home could involve a car journey "in contact with" their own parents, or others, and/or other children, or other people.

The average bin man on the job is "in contact with" approximately 0 households, since he visits the end of the drive, and the average Lidl worker is both screened from the public as well as spending little time (which is a factor) "in contact with" individual shoppers.

Further, children in school years 7 to 11 are far more likely to be infected (3%) than bin men (1% to 1½%) or the vast majority of Lidl workers (same percentages) or elderly people (½%) (source: ONS, current).

It's quite clear that schoolchildren are the major transmission vector of the three.

If you want to have it some other way, that's up to you.

 

[Appleyard]

Sturgeon said ... the new strain of Covid-19 was "contributing to faster spread" of the virus

I do wish they would write more accurately. There's a worrying new variant of the virus (SARS-CoV-2), not COVID-19 (the disease it causes). The media has a lot to answer for.

 

[Covrich]

My Grandsons school closed a week early because of the amount of cases, two of the years at my Granddaughters school the same and two people at work are isolating because their children have it, all different schools.

I meant vaccine