No. I'm not talking about tiers and lockdowns, I'm talking about countries stopping it getting in.
Covid-19 the second wave.
- Thread starter Chippy_Tea
- Start date
Help Support The Homebrew Forum:
I haven't seen any panic buying, thank goodness. Went to Aldiwaldi and Liddlepiddle today to get stuff, no problem, no shortage. I did overhear one shopper saying there were long queues at eTcso, though, so maybe it was different there.
The only time I will be buying more Christmas food before Christmas wil be on Christmas Eve, when I will look for bargains (if any)!
Did a lot of staples at lidl in the evening last week - no problems.
Attempted some nice stuff from Waitrose yesterday.
Crazy Q in the afternoon - gave up & went home.
Returning in the evening - Still a queue outside at 8:10pm & took about 5 mins to get in.
At least at that time it was all regulars who knew what they were buying & where it was located.
I was also surpeised that stock levels appeared to be OK (although I didn't need to go down the loo roll isle)
They had plenty of tonic.
I suspect its the mentality of the "Tesco shopper" as my nephew who works in big Tesco in the neighbouring town reported it as being mental with shelves being cleared & people taking stuff before they had a chance to put in on the shelves
Attempted some nice stuff from Waitrose yesterday.
Crazy Q in the afternoon - gave up & went home.
Returning in the evening - Still a queue outside at 8:10pm & took about 5 mins to get in.
At least at that time it was all regulars who knew what they were buying & where it was located.
I was also surpeised that stock levels appeared to be OK (although I didn't need to go down the loo roll isle)
They had plenty of tonic.
I suspect its the mentality of the "Tesco shopper" as my nephew who works in big Tesco in the neighbouring town reported it as being mental with shelves being cleared & people taking stuff before they had a chance to put in on the shelves
- Joined
- Oct 5, 2019
- Messages
- 2,491
- Reaction score
- 2,380
So was I - I just mentioned going into tier2 at 1 in a 1000 as an arbitrary definition of a "serious" epidemic. Serious but still low enough that you could have 4 "serious epidemics" happening in the same population and yet at 1 in 1000 they're not going to be infecting many of the same people. Therefore if you have 1 epidemic and 3 new people come in, you've 4 independent epidemics and 4x the pressure on your health system.
Whereas if one person comes in and leads to 90% of the population getting infected, then you might as well let in as many people as you like, because they're not going to make much difference to the total infection rate.
Went to the local farm shop and green grocer in our village. Both fully stocked (well, the farmer would be, obviously, growing all their own stuff, lol). The greengrocer had caulis and broccoli a plenty, and didn't seem concerned about supplies, as they source most of their stuff from the uk. The better half went to the supermarket in our local market town (its an Aldi) and said it was crazy busy, but well stocked. I am hearing of panic buying in Grimsby (which I am going to later for a supermarket booze run), but we shall see.
I see Hancock has just said there is a new more virilent strain that has been found here in 2 people and it originates from south africa
Last edited:
No sign of Panic Buying in my local Lidl. Plenty of Fruit and Veg, Toilet Rolls and Ukuleles left
- Joined
- Oct 6, 2019
- Messages
- 2,499
- Reaction score
- 4,737
Well on the bright side my Tesco order arrived with no substitute‘s on the downside I will be in tier four from Saturday.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...covid-restrictions-in-england-from-boxing-day
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...covid-restrictions-in-england-from-boxing-day
Tier 4 is the new Tier 2.
I reallly don't know if its going to make much difference at this point due to a combination of being too late, stupidity of goverment & people just not bothering after almost a year of this.
I am going to stick my head in a bucket of sand until it all goes away
I reallly don't know if its going to make much difference at this point due to a combination of being too late, stupidity of goverment & people just not bothering after almost a year of this.
I am going to stick my head in a bucket of sand until it all goes away
- Joined
- Aug 12, 2015
- Messages
- 10,790
- Reaction score
- 10,869
Lets see how long this takes to spread
A guy on the radio is saying the new virus is 56 times more easy to catch, I don't know how they get these numbers but he is saying unless a member of your family is going to suffer mentally from not seeing family tomorrow do not meet up as this new strain is already in many parts of the country, we were already staying away from family I hope people heed this new warning.
If its spread by Turkey's we are all stuffed!
- Joined
- Aug 12, 2015
- Messages
- 10,790
- Reaction score
- 10,869
The one from South Africa or the one they were banging on about last weekend?
If the latter, I found this image a couple of days ago which suggests it isn't everywhere like they said.
Attachments
There are quite a few spots on that map!
Let's think. When the original infection occurred, back in December 2019 or thereabouts, how many infections were there, globally? Two or three? A handful?
I'd say the map strongly suggests it is everywhere like they said. The number of new cases generally appears now to be at an all-time high.
- Joined
- Aug 12, 2015
- Messages
- 10,790
- Reaction score
- 10,869
I would say it's in the highly populated areas.
The Welsh government said it is in every part of Wales, the map suggests otherwise
I'm seeing figures between 50 and 75%, which I read as 1.5 - 1.75 times more infectious. 56 times more infectious would be 5600%, I believe.
- Joined
- Oct 5, 2019
- Messages
- 2,491
- Reaction score
- 2,380
Sounds like the non-peer-reviewed paper led by Nick Davies : Estimated transmissibility and severity of novel SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern 202012/01 in England
Which models the "Kent" variant as 56% more likely to transmit than other strains. Still not clear if that is allowing for the fact that there seems to have been some big superspreading events in prisons etc in Kent, which would give the impression it was more transmissible than it actually is.
"Our estimates suggest that control measures of a similar stringency to the national lockdown implemented in England in November 2020 are unlikely to reduce the effective reproduction number Rt to less than 1, unless primary schools, secondary schools, and universities are also closed. We project that large resurgences of the virus are likely to occur following easing of control measures. "
Also worth noting that we now seem to be dealing with three separate variants, all of which that have the N501Y mutation which appears to have arisen independently in the three lines. That suggests it is having enough of an effect to be selected for.
Only the Kent one, B.1.1.7, has a 69-70 deletion but the others don't.
The South African one, 501Y.V2 has N501Y but also has mutations at E484K and K417N which the Kent one doesn't have.
The big outbreak in the Welsh valleys seems to be driven by a separate Welsh one which confusingly is being referred to as "N501Y" as the variant name.
- Joined
- Oct 5, 2019
- Messages
- 2,491
- Reaction score
- 2,380
This is an elegant paper which shows the virus mutating in a poor sod who had a knackered immune system and had COVID for 5 months before dying.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2031364
The N501Y mutation showed up after 4 months.
The two obvious take-homes are that we need to think particularly carefully about how to care people like this, who can act as long-term laboratories for the virus to "try" new mutations.
And of course it emphasises the need to keep them away from the virus in the first place, and how a policy of encouraging natural infections with an aim to achieving herd immunity would just encourage the virus to evolve much faster than it already is.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2031364
The N501Y mutation showed up after 4 months.
The two obvious take-homes are that we need to think particularly carefully about how to care people like this, who can act as long-term laboratories for the virus to "try" new mutations.
And of course it emphasises the need to keep them away from the virus in the first place, and how a policy of encouraging natural infections with an aim to achieving herd immunity would just encourage the virus to evolve much faster than it already is.
Harsher Covid restrictions now apply to millions more people, as rule changes come into force across the UK.
Around six million people in east and south-east England have gone into tier four, England's highest Covid level - which includes a "stay at home" order.
Lockdowns have also started in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and measures have been reimposed in Wales after being eased for Christmas.
It comes after official UK coronavirus deaths passed 70,000 on Christmas Day.
The toughest measures - which mean the closure of all non-essential shops, as well as hairdressers, swimming pools and gyms - now apply to around 24 million people in England, more than 40% of the population.
Prof Devi Sridhar, chairwoman of global public health at the University of Edinburgh, told the BBC she believed all of England was likely to be soon be in tier four.
"I think that's where it's heading and it's better to be honest with people so they can plan the next few weeks to understand what might be coming," she said, adding: "To really keep a handle on these numbers, you need to move early."
The whole of Sussex, Oxfordshire, Suffolk, Norfolk and Cambridgeshire, as well Essex, Waverley in Surrey, and all of Hampshire with the exception of the New Forest, are now in tier four.
Bristol, Gloucestershire, Somerset, Swindon, the Isle of Wight, the New Forest and Northamptonshire, as well as Cheshire and Warrington, have all moved up to tier three. Meanwhile, Cornwall and Herefordshire have moved from tier one to tier two.
Tier four restrictions mean shops in many town and city centres have been closed for the first time in decades on Boxing Day, when there are usually sales.
Even some retailers deemed "essential" - such as Asda - have opted not to open.
Full article - Covid-19: Tougher Covid rules begin for millions in UK - BBC News
Around six million people in east and south-east England have gone into tier four, England's highest Covid level - which includes a "stay at home" order.
Lockdowns have also started in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and measures have been reimposed in Wales after being eased for Christmas.
It comes after official UK coronavirus deaths passed 70,000 on Christmas Day.
The toughest measures - which mean the closure of all non-essential shops, as well as hairdressers, swimming pools and gyms - now apply to around 24 million people in England, more than 40% of the population.
Prof Devi Sridhar, chairwoman of global public health at the University of Edinburgh, told the BBC she believed all of England was likely to be soon be in tier four.
"I think that's where it's heading and it's better to be honest with people so they can plan the next few weeks to understand what might be coming," she said, adding: "To really keep a handle on these numbers, you need to move early."
The whole of Sussex, Oxfordshire, Suffolk, Norfolk and Cambridgeshire, as well Essex, Waverley in Surrey, and all of Hampshire with the exception of the New Forest, are now in tier four.
Bristol, Gloucestershire, Somerset, Swindon, the Isle of Wight, the New Forest and Northamptonshire, as well as Cheshire and Warrington, have all moved up to tier three. Meanwhile, Cornwall and Herefordshire have moved from tier one to tier two.
Tier four restrictions mean shops in many town and city centres have been closed for the first time in decades on Boxing Day, when there are usually sales.
Even some retailers deemed "essential" - such as Asda - have opted not to open.
Full article - Covid-19: Tougher Covid rules begin for millions in UK - BBC News
