Covid-19 the second wave.

[simon12]

Simon
Would you take your loved ones to those areas to get infected and get herd immunity?

I was expressing a mixture of facts and speculation nothing I said was about what people should do, so why do you ask and the answer is no.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Sweden cases rising quicker than any other country.

 

[PhilBrew]

H Simon

"The Phase 3 clinical trial of BNT162b2 began on July 27 and has enrolled 43,538 participants to date, 38,955 of whom have received a second dose of the vaccine candidate" I made the assumption possibly wrongly that the 43,538 participants - the 38,995 who have had the second dose = 4,543 is the placebo group.

... I don't think you're reading those numbers correctly ... you need to think about how the trial will have been structured, it's probably the case that near the start they didn't know whether you would need one, two or however many doses of the vaccine ... that 4,543 number are those who only ever got one dose (whether of the vaccine or placebo) who have now given the trial the information as to how effective/ineffective only one dose is ... of the other 38,995 some of those may well have been given three or more doses, which will have helped work out that the efficacy of two doses at 90%+, 7 days after the second dose, is either "good enough" or not improved significantly/sufficiently by 3rd and subsequent doses ... to think that the scientists knew exactly what dosage/doses would be needed from the start and that all 43,538 participants would be treated similarly other than some being given real vaccine and some placebo, is a little naive really, when you think it through a bit more, isn't it ... just the sort of assumption you might make in the middle of the night, I suppose

But if I have assumed wrongly it only emphasises my point of why have they not given these numbers to show how they justify the 90%+ claim.

... I think as Northern Brewer points out, the trial isn't finished yet, and we have to remember that the likelihood of contracting this disease (whether you've had the vaccine or not) is dependant on behaviour ... not ALL of those participating in the trial will have been deliberately exposed to the virus, and the chances of some of them catching it will depend on how willing they are to go about their lives and how likely they are to interact with infected others whilst doing that, also ... so, the people running the trial will have had to make decisions based on how much information about the findings of this trial to release, to "encourage" behaviours that might assist in the trial and to "discourage" behaviours that would limit the effectiveness of the trial ... the releasing of this information, at this stage, wasn't ALL about Pfizer's share-price and the US election, like the conspiracy theorists will tell you ... telling the world that the vaccine is 90%+ effective 7 days after the second dose will also have changed the outlooks of those 38,995 participants ... some of them will be optimists who will go about acting like a Republican Senator at a garden party, and the scientists running the trial will be able to observe whether their "immunity" continues to be effective through such changes in behaviour ... maybe if it was known (rather than assumed/guessed) that (say) half of them had actually been given placebos, such that they might consider themselves more like 45% likely immune, rather than 90% likely, then that might drive different behaviour and therefore might not give as useful information, from the trial

Cheers, PhilB

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Breaking news -

Covid: UK reports jump in daily cases in new record.
A record 33,470 cases of coronavirus have been confirmed in the UK in the past day, official data shows.
It is the highest daily figure since mass testing began in the UK, and brings the total number of cases to more than 1.29 million.
The number of virus tests conducted across the UK has steadily increased in recent weeks.
On Wednesday the UK became the first country in Europe to pass 50,000 Covid deaths.

• UK coronavirus death toll passes 50,000
• City Covid trial sees more than 23,000 tested

Thursday's daily number of cases showed a 45.8% increase on Wednesday's figure of 22,950.
Experts have previously warned against describing the daily figure as a record because there was no widespread testing programme during the first wave of the epidemic.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54908680

 

[Northern_Brewer]

For those who get excited about the deaths being recorded of anyone who has had a positive Covid test within 28 days, the ONS has analysed the week to 30 October in more detail :

Of the 1,379 deaths that involved COVID-19, 1,196 had this recorded as the underlying cause of death (86.7%); of the 1,922 deaths that involved Influenza and Pneumonia, 289 had this recorded as the underlying cause (15.0%)...

The number of deaths registered in the UK in the week ending 30 October 2020 (Week 44) was 12,501, which was 1,274 deaths higher than the five-year average and 209 deaths more than Week 43; of the deaths registered in the UK in Week 44, 1,597 deaths involved COVID-19, 471 deaths higher than in Week 43.    

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Coronavirus: Austria locks down as new wave grips Europe

Austria is moving from a night curfew and partial shutdown to a second national lockdown that will be in place for at least two and a half weeks.

Chancellor Sebastian Kurz has urged Austrians not to meet anyone from outside their household in an attempt to curb a rapid rise in Covid cases.

He said schools would close and students would learn from home when new measures come into force on Tuesday.

Austria reported a record number of 9,586 new daily infections on Friday.

That figure was nine times higher than at the peak of the initial wave earlier this year. The country has recorded more than 191,000 cases since the start of the pandemic, and 1,661 Covid-related deaths.

The new lockdown measures, which will see all non-essential shops and services - including hairdressers - close, will remain in place until 6 December. People have been told to work at home wherever possible.

Austria's Health Minister Rudolf Anschober said it was the last chance to stop the health service from collapsing under the pressure of new infections.

He said Austrians had already done it once and they could do it again.

Austria had its first nationwide lockdown in March, during the first wave of the pandemic.

Amid rising numbers, the capital Vienna had already imposed a partial lockdown, including a curfew from 20:00 to 06:00, at the start of November.

Countries across Europe are experiencing a surge in coronavirus cases, with some - such as Sweden - warning that it is too early to plan for Christmas

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54945400

 

[Chippy_Tea]

A major trial of a vaccine to protect against Covid-19 has launched in the UK - the third such trial in the country.

The jab - designed by the Belgian company Janssen - uses a genetically modified common cold virus to train the immune system.
It comes a week after preliminary results showed another vaccine offered 90% protection.
However, many types of vaccine are likely to be needed to end the pandemic.
The success of the vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech has caused global excitement. However, it has not yet been approved for use and we still do not know how well it works in the elderly or how long immunity lasts.
The hunt for Covid vaccines continues as a different approach may yet be better, or better in some age groups, and one company will struggle to immunise the planet.

• How close are we to a coronavirus vaccine?
• Who will get the vaccine first and when can you have it?

"It is really important we pursue many different vaccines from many different manufactures," said Prof Saul Faust, the director of the NIHR Southampton Clinical Research Facility, who will run the trial.
He added: "We just don't know how each of these vaccines is going to behave and we can't be certain vaccine supply will be efficient and secure from one manufacturer."
The trial has started the job of recruiting 6,000 people in the UK. Other countries will join the effort to bring the total up to 30,000.
Half of the volunteers will be given two doses of the vaccine around two months apart.
Janssen already has one large scale trial of its vaccine in which volunteers get one dose. This trial will see if two gives a stronger and longer lasting immunity.
It could take six to nine months before the results are available.

Full article - Covid vaccine: Major new trial starts in UK

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Moderna: Covid vaccine shows nearly 95% protection

A new vaccine that protects against Covid-19 is nearly 95% effective, early data from US company Moderna shows.

The results come hot on the heels of similar results from Pfizer, and add to growing confidence that vaccines can help end the pandemic.
Both companies used a highly innovative and experimental approach to designing their vaccines.
Moderna says it is a "great day" and they plan to apply for approval to use the vaccine in the next few weeks.
However, this is still early data and key questions remain unanswered.

How good is it?
The trial involved 30,000 people in the US with half being given two doses of the vaccine, four weeks apart. The rest had dummy injections.
The analysis was based on the first 95 to develop Covid-19 symptoms.
Only five of the Covid cases were in people given the vaccine, 90 were in those given the dummy treatment. The company says the vaccine is protecting 94.5%.
The data also shows there were 11 cases of severe Covid in the trial, but none happened in people who were immunised.
"The overall effectiveness has been remarkable... it's a great day," Tal Zaks, the chief medical officer at Moderna, told BBC News.

Full article - Moderna: Covid vaccine shows nearly 95% protection

 

[Richie_asg1]

So, another round of roulette as people won't know which vaccine resulted in a higher death rate if it wasn't effective, and you could end up with serious side effects from one and not another type.

Just adds to the mystery of who to blame if something goes wrong.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

So, another round of roulette as people won't know which vaccine resulted in a higher death rate if it wasn't effective,

I take the view anything is better than nothing, i will be in line for whichever comes first as soon as i can get it which at my age probably wont be long after mass vaccination starts.

 

[Covrich]

So, another round of roulette as people won't know which vaccine resulted in a higher death rate if it wasn't effective, and you could end up with serious side effects from one and not another type.

Just adds to the mystery of who to blame if something goes wrong.

Its the unknown long term effects that worry me

My mother who worked in NHS for 40 years up to band 8 I asked her yesterday with all she knows would she have the vaccine if offered today

She said absolutley no chance, you could get long term kidney failure for all we know just yet.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

She said absolutley no chance, you could get long term kidney failure for all we know just yet.

Everyone is entitled to their views and no one should be forced to have the vaccine but if people don't get vaccinated they run the risk of getting it even from those that have been vaccinated, we will have to carry on wearing masks and keeping a social distance and then if cases increase more lockdowns will follow as it says below vaccines may stop people getting sick but they will not prevent people catching and transmitting the virus.

Moreover, warns Peter Hotez of Baylor College of Medicine in Texas, the first vaccines might stop vaccinated people getting sick, but not prevent them catching and transmitting the virus. “In that case we’ll still require masks and social distancing, until better vaccines come along,” he says.

Vaccines
A vaccine may not be enough on its own, but it is necessary. It is the only proven way to reach “herd immunity” – when so many of the population (thought to be at least 60% for Covid-19) are immune to the virus that an infected person contacts very few non-immune people and, unable to find new hosts, the virus dies out.

In documents shared last week the head of the UK vaccine task force Katie Bingham revealed that the plan is to offer a vaccine to all adults over 50 by Easter next year.

Then what? Say the first vaccines protect 70% of the people who get them, and 70% of the population is vaccinated – and both of those are ambitious targets. That means 49% of the population will be protected, says David Salisbury. Herd immunity requires more than that. It may even be difficult to vaccinate that many, if side-effects such as fatigue, however mild or temporary, set in after the first jab and some refuse the second.

But current UK vaccination plans don’t aim for herd immunity at first. The most recent advice calls for “targeted” vaccination of people most at risk: frontline workers such as medical staff, and people who are older or have medical conditions such as diabetes, who are most likely to contract severe disease. Vaccinating those people would cut severe cases, deaths and hospital demand, but they don’t number enough to reach herd immunity. “The virus will continue to circulate among younger healthy people, especially if they ignore social distancing and won’t wear masks,” says Salisbury – at least until more people are vaccinated. We will need what he calls “Vaccine Plus”, masks and some distancing, to keep this circulation in check – and stop it reaching the 30% of vaccinated, high-risk people who aren’t protected by the vaccine.



Some immunologists think that is not all bad. If young children – who do not usually get so sick from Covid as adults – start catching the virus every winter we may develop enough immunity, if not to stop the virus circulating then at least to limit its impact. In a generation, everyone will have had it as children, and Covid will be mild. That may be what happened with the four coronaviruses that now cause common colds in winter. Genetic analysis shows one, OC43, left cattle and entered humans around 1890. It may be what really caused a pandemic that year of what we thought was severe flu, says Nicholas Christakis of Yale University, but which we now realise had Covid-like symptoms.

Full article - Could a Covid vaccine bring back normality?

 

[Covrich]

For the record, I am not saying "I" wouldn;t have it , I probably would, but I am more than happy to be at the back end of the queue.

If and it is a big if, if there are some even small long term issues caused the by the vaccine cocktail we could all end up having, It is a worrying thought that is all, trepidation if you call it that.

The last paragraph you put up is soemthing which I have said a lot through this threads, trasmission through kids although not completely rife and out of control is something which actually is something we must hope that passes through, we need to help them build up tolerance over time to this aswell as jabs. This is what like my mother and ex (who is front line B7) have always said.. Its not a lambs to the slaughter notion which the left will brand you with.. Just the importance of how we have amongst other things have managed to survive.

Fingers crossed 2021 has a better prospect anyway.


Bte does it even seem lockdown to you? I was dropping my boys off in school in rugby where they live and roads were as bust as I have ever seen since prior to lockdown 1.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Bte does it even seem lockdown to you? I was dropping my boys off in school in rugby where they live and roads were as bust as I have ever seen since prior to lockdown 1.

The roads round here are a lot quieter as out police force are stopping visitors and sending them home i think people got the message when they did this last time after the idiots swamped the lakes at the first opportunity they got.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

Bte does it even seem lockdown to you? I was dropping my boys off in school in rugby where they live and roads were as bust as I have ever seen since prior to lockdown 1.

Of course the school run will look roughly as busy as "normal", as schools are open, whereas they weren't in April. But if you look at eg footfall data in shops & hospitality, the provinces are down ~80% compared to February versus ~50% in the summer, London's been hit a bit less. You can see the difference between England and Scotland, so it's pretty clearly a lockdown effect.

FWIW, I'm happy to take the vaccine as and when it's my turn. Partly because I'm not a vaccine freeloader, trying to minimise any possible risk to myself whilst happy to enjoy the benefits of a society that enjoys the benefits of lots of immune people. Which includes the economic benefits - something that people in safe government jobs may not weigh highly. Their assement might be different if the risk/benefit included for those not taking the jab, a throw of the dice (I know, die) which gave a 1 in 6 chance of them losing their job...

Chippy - I suspect the Lakes are a lot less attractive in the peeing rain, they can get a "swamp" at home!

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Chippy - I suspect the Lakes are a lot less attractive in the peeing rain, they can get a "swamp" at home!

I don't blame them, its rained most of today and predicted to rain most of the day Wednesday, Friday and Saturday.

 

[Covrich]

Of course the school run will look roughly as busy as "normal", as schools are open, whereas they weren't in April. But if you look at eg footfall data in shops & hospitality, the provinces are down ~80% compared to February versus ~50% in the summer, London's been hit a bit less. You can see the difference between England and Scotland, so it's pretty clearly a lockdown effect.

FWIW, I'm happy to take the vaccine as and when it's my turn. Partly because I'm not a vaccine freeloader, trying to minimise any possible risk to myself whilst happy to enjoy the benefits of a society that enjoys the benefits of lots of immune people. Which includes the economic benefits - something that people in safe government jobs may not weigh highly. Their assement might be different if the risk/benefit included for those not taking the jab, a throw of the dice (I know, die) which gave a 1 in 6 chance of them losing their job...

Chippy - I suspect the Lakes are a lot less attractive in the peeing rain, they can get a "swamp" at home!

Like I say I am with you on taking the vaccine, I was giving the opinion of someone who worked in NHS for a very ling time across a wide range from theater to actually studing drugs treatments and administering them and understanding boosters jabs vaccines and .. she is retired now as of last december. Makes no odds to her and she probably would have it in time nobody here is anti vaccine, but carries cautious reservations because nobody knows what the effects it could cause just yet and anyone who says they do are not telling the truth. But I take opinions like that a lot more on board than what you always read on the internet right now because right now its confused conflicting when the science changes a lot. No anti vaccine agenda.. I hope we all get back to normal and kill the damn thing off

 

[Chippy_Tea]

There have been more than 1.3 million confirmed cases of coronavirus in the UK and over 52,000 people have died, government figures show.

However, these figures include only people who have died within 28 days of testing positive for coronavirus and other measures suggest the number of deaths is higher.

New cases remain high after sharp increase

On Monday, the government announced a further 21,363 confirmed cases.
It's thought that infection rate was much higher during the first peak in the spring, but testing capacity at the time was too limited to detect the true number of daily cases.
Confirmed cases started rising again in July, with the rate of growth increasing sharply in September and October.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

 

[Cheshire Cat]

Reported by the BBC

Spanish businessman who acted as a go-between to secure protective garments for NHS staff in the coronavirus pandemic, was paid $28m (£21m) in UK taxpayer cash.
The consultant had been in line for a further $20m of UK public funds, documents filed in a US court reveal.

I wonder who's getting millions for brokering the vaccine purchases.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Covid in Scotland: Level 4 lockdown to be imposed in 11 council areas

Scotland's toughest Covid restrictions are to be introduced in 11 council areas - including Glasgow - on Friday

The level four rules will see the closure of non-essential shops, pubs, restaurants and gyms.
They will be imposed in East Dunbartonshire, East Renfrewshire, Glasgow, Renfrewshire and West Dunbartonshire.
North and South Lanarkshire, East and South Ayrshire, Stirling and West Lothian will also move to level four.
The new rules will affect about 2.3 million people living across west and central Scotland, and will remain in place until 11 December.
However, East Lothian and Midlothian will move from level three to level two from next Tuesday, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said.

Ms Sturgeon said there were grounds for "continued and significant concern" about levels of the virus in all of the council areas that would be moving to level four.
She added: "The infection rate in all of these areas remains stubbornly and worryingly high.
"At these levels, we simply do not have the assurance we need that hospital and ICU services will be able to cope as we go deeper into winter."
In the seven days up to Friday, Scotland as a whole had just over 140 new cases of Covid per 100,000 people.
Ms Sturgeon said all of the areas moving to level four were above that rate - ranging from West Lothian, which saw 158 cases per 100,000, to Glasgow with 277.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54974855