Covid-19 the second wave.

[Chippy_Tea]

Nice to read something positive for a change Rich

 

[simon12]

What's not clear to me is, is it 100% effective in 90% of people and 0% in 10% of people this is what other articles suggest from these wording but don't really say. I am worried that when you start giving it to those most vulnerable we will find it works in 99% of healthy people but maybe only 20% of vulnerable people.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

What have Pfizer/BioNTech achieved?
They are the first to share data from the final stages of testing - known as a phase 3 trial.
This is a crucial point in vaccine development, where some experimental vaccines will fail.
The vaccine uses a completely experimental approach, which involves injecting part of the virus's genetic code into people, in order to train the immune system.
About 43,000 people have been given the vaccine, and no safety concerns have been raised.

So when will the vaccine become available?
Pfizer believes it will be able to supply 50 million doses by the end of this year, and around 1.3 billion by the end of 2021.
The UK should get 10 million doses by the end of 2020, with a further 30 million doses already ordered.
Exactly who will be immunised first will depend on where Covid is spreading when the vaccine becomes available and in which groups it is most effective.
The UK has not decided, for example, how to prioritise health and care workers who work with the most vulnerable people, relative to those most at risk if they catch the disease.
In broad terms, the over-80s, care home residents and health or care workers will be near the top of the list.
Age is, by far, the biggest risk factor for Covid, so the older you are, the sooner you are likely to be vaccinated.
Most experts think the vaccine will not be widely available until the middle of 2021.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51665497

 

[Northern_Brewer]

What's not clear to me is, is it 100% effective in 90% of people and 0% in 10% of people this is what other articles suggest from these wording but don't really say. I am worried that when you start giving it to those most vulnerable we will find it works in 99% of healthy people but maybe only 20% of vulnerable people.

We don't yet know. All that's been published today is that the group that got the vaccine had >90% fewer infections 7 days after the second jab than the group that got a placebo. 38,955 people got two jabs (vaccine or placebo), and of those, 94 got Covid. So if half got the placebo and half the vaccine then at least 85 placebos got Covid and fewer than 9 of the vaccinated got it. The aim was to do a final analysis once there had been 164 cases, so they're not there yet, but it's looking good so far.

They've not said much yet about the makeup of the test population but the original safety tests were done on a population that went up to 85, and around a third of the current study are non-white.

 

[Rodcx500z]

so if i wait until millions have this jab the risk of me catching it are reduced by 90% with a 10% chance of getting it they are pretty good odds

 

[simon12]

We don't yet know. All that's been published today is that the group that got the vaccine had >90% fewer infections 7 days after the second jab than the group that got a placebo. 38,955 people got two jabs (vaccine or placebo), and of those, 94 got Covid. So if half got the placebo and half the vaccine then at least 85 placebos got Covid and fewer than 9 of the vaccinated got it. The aim was to do a final analysis once there had been 164 cases, so they're not there yet, but it's looking good so far.

They've not said much yet about the makeup of the test population but the original safety tests were done on a population that went up to 85, and around a third of the current study are non-white.

I was just reading into this more myself it seems there are 38,955 who got the vaccine but only 4,543 with the placebo so my guess is the 90% means that a bit less than half the 94 positive cases had been given the vaccine. Why they don't give this number makes no sense to me, they also lack a huge amount of detail ie the dates any details of who was positive (like age) or any info on why they think its over 90% effective. Besides with only 94 cases and some must have been vaccinated the claimed 90%+ must have a huge margin of error. My thinking is this is just another stepping stone (and not a large one) towards a vaccine that was only released with minimal info to send there shares through the roof and its worked.

 

[Covrich]

I was just reading into this more myself it seems there are 38,955 who got the vaccine but only 4,543 with the placebo so my guess is the 90% means that a bit less than half the 94 positive cases had been given the vaccine. Why they don't give this number makes no sense to me, they also lack a huge amount of detail ie the dates any details of who was positive (like age) or any info on why they think its over 90% effective. Besides with only 94 cases and some must have been vaccinated the claimed 90%+ must have a huge margin of error. My thinking is this is just another stepping stone (and not a large one) towards a vaccine that was only released with minimal info to send there shares through the roof and its worked.

DO you work night shifts or something, that is a lot of thought for 3am

 

[Leon103]

I was just reading into this more myself it seems there are 38,955 who got the vaccine but only 4,543 with the placebo so my guess is the 90% means that a bit less than half the 94 positive cases had been given the vaccine. Why they don't give this number makes no sense to me, they also lack a huge amount of detail ie the dates any details of who was positive (like age) or any info on why they think its over 90% effective. Besides with only 94 cases and some must have been vaccinated the claimed 90%+ must have a huge margin of error. My thinking is this is just another stepping stone (and not a large one) towards a vaccine that was only released with minimal info to send there shares through the roof and its worked.

Perhaps all will be revealed in their full report?

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Cumbria Roads Police
@CumbriaRoadsPol

Even with 3 months of practice earlier in the year, some folks just don’t get it! Stay home, protect the NHS, save lives. Both occupants of this car from (former Tier 3!) West Yorks issued Covid fines and turned round #A590 near #Kendal 2275 2969

 

[Northern_Brewer]

I was just reading into this more myself it seems there are 38,955 who got the vaccine but only 4,543

Source?

The way that Pfizer are doing it is as two shots of vaccine, one 21-28 days after the first. As of Sunday, 38,955 had received their second shot. But that doesn't mean 38,955 have got "the" vaccine - some of those will have received two shots of a placebo, I think I saw that they're using a meningitis vaccine as the placebo. But often you do see more people getting the vaccine than the placebo.

Oh, and I've just found this page, which has more detail on the trial population - 41% are 56-85, 26% are Hispanic (Brazil and Argentina are two of the main trial sites), 10% black, 5% Asian.

 

[simon12]

Source?

The way that Pfizer are doing it is as two shots of vaccine, one 21-28 days after the first. As of Sunday, 38,955 had received their second shot. But that doesn't mean 38,955 have got "the" vaccine - some of those will have received two shots of a placebo, I think I saw that they're using a meningitis vaccine as the placebo. But often you do see more people getting the vaccine than the placebo.

Oh, and I've just found this page, which has more detail on the trial population - 41% are 56-85, 26% are Hispanic (Brazil and Argentina are two of the main trial sites), 10% black, 5% Asian.

My source was Pfizer and BioNTech Announce Vaccine Candidate Against COVID-19 Achieved Success in First Interim Analysis from Phase 3 Study | Pfizer which says "The Phase 3 clinical trial of BNT162b2 began on July 27 and has enrolled 43,538 participants to date, 38,955 of whom have received a second dose of the vaccine candidate" I made the assumption possibly wrongly that the 43,538 participants - the 38,995 who have had the second dose = 4,543 is the placebo group. But if I have assumed wrongly it only emphasises my point of why have they not given these numbers to show how they justify the 90%+ claim.

 

[simon12]

DO you work night shifts or something, that is a lot of thought for 3am

No due to lockdown I'm not working but when I am I usually finish after 11pm and still want to get something to eat and chill for a bit so only an hourish later than normal and I do find my brain wakes up very late in the day.

 

[simon12]

Looking for signs of herd immunity again, so taking the 10 areas with the highest case ratio and death ratio 5 are on both so 15 places with England just for comparison.

The 5 places in green have had there cases falling consistently and none are seeing cases rising. All still have cases higher than England as a whole.
Thats the fact part, my thoughts are I think that all the green areas are reaching a level of herd immunity that is more significant in controlling the virus than the restrictions in place and the rest are going to get there soon. I think if the restrictions were lifted fully in the green areas they would still have some way to go until the virus is suppressed enough to not be a threat but I think they are over half way there. Liverpool has had the longest sustained drop in cases and I guesstimate they have 40-50%+ of there population exposed and immune. As a result I believe they will hit a level of immunity enough to suppress the virus likely this year but well before there is any vaccine to control it and the rest on this list will not be far behind.

If you are interested in these sort of observations please click like so I know I'm not wasting time (not that its in short supply).

 

[Northern_Brewer]

38,955 of whom have received a second dose of the vaccine candidate" I made the assumption possibly wrongly that the 43,538 participants - the 38,995 who have had the second dose = 4,543 is the placebo group. But if I have assumed wrongly it only emphasises my point of why have they not given these numbers to show how they justify the 90%+ claim.

Fair enough, it does look like that - but again I'd caution about reading too much into any of this. The whole point is that this is an interim release, there's a proper time to release the numbers and that's at the agreed endpoint of the trial. You can understand why they've done an interim release given the huge public interest - but there's no substitute for seeing the trial through to the end.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

The 5 places in green have had there cases falling consistently and none are seeing cases rising. All still have cases higher than England as a whole.
Thats the fact part, my thoughts are I think that all the green areas are reaching a level of herd immunity that is more significant in controlling the virus than the restrictions in place

Pure speculation.

I would note that all the areas in green are in Lancashire, Greater Manchester or Liverpool City Region, which means that they went into Tier 3 a couple of weeks ago and it seems to have had an effect.

 

[Cheshire Cat]

Simon
Would you take your loved ones to those areas to get infected and get herd immunity?

 

[Benfleet Brewery]

Before we all get our hopes up!:

Pfizer Lawsuits
Pfizer has faced thousands of lawsuits filed for medical injuries caused by some of its most popular drugs. It has also set a record for the largest fine paid for a health care fraud lawsuit filed by the U.S. Department of Justice. Pfizer paid $2.3 billion in fines, penalties, and settlement for illegal marketing claims.

Some of the Pfizer lawsuits have been dismissed, others have been settled, and still others remain in court systems. Some of the most notable lawsuits have included:

The rest here: Pfizer - History of Pfizer, Products & Legal Claims

 

[Northern_Brewer]

"New Zealand Inc reaps benefit of hard and fast Covid lockdown
Companies believe Wellington’s decision to put health over profits could pay off

...with most restrictions now removed and the virus apparently under control, business confidence is coming back. Many corporate leaders — in industries from tourism to agriculture — hope that Wellington’s decision to prioritise health over keeping its economy open will prove fruitful in the long term.

“One thing most businesses haven’t had to experience throughout Covid-19 is running out of cash or liquidity issues"

“New Zealand looks relatively better off because pursuing eradication, as we call it, has enabled our economy to return to a new normal”

https://www.ft.com/content/912d28d1-b233-4e18-9af4-7fa84ea3b927

 

[marshbrewer]

To quote Spitting Image, 'Do you know how hard it is to quarantine two small islands with low population and a wealth of natural resources that renders us completely self sufficient?”

 

[simon12]

Pure speculation.

Yes I thought it was clear
"The 5 places in green have had there cases falling consistently and none are seeing cases rising. All still have cases higher than England as a whole.
Thats the fact part, my thoughts are I think that all the green areas are reaching a level of herd immunity that is more significant in controlling the virus than the restrictions in place"