Your views on how the Tories have handled Coronavirus.

[MyQul]

Even the bloke that started ConservativeHome website has given up on BJ

Tim Montgomerie, the journalist who founded the influential ConservativeHome website, used to be an enthusiastic supporter of Boris Johnson. But, in an article for the New Statesman, he says he has lost faith in the prime minister because he now thinks the PM has given up listening to a wide range of voices and is now intolerant of criticism. Here’s an extract.

It took six years for Margaret Thatcher’s governments to begin to stop listening to alternative voices. The same patterns had emerged within six months of Johnson becoming prime minister, and within six weeks of his general election victory last December. In her early years the Iron Lady relished argument and intellectual debate – and those internal jousts strengthened her for the public battles with her true opponents. In the starkest of contrasts, the team inside today’s No 10 has often preferred to greet internal dissent with retribution – much of it pre-briefed to favoured journalists. Throughout the Westminster village every Tory had quickly learned the score: do, say and tweet as you are told – or else. In February’s reshuffle we learned that earning the disfavour of key prime ministerial adviser Dominic Cummings was fatal, even if you were chancellor of the Exchequer. Everyone was dispensable. Except Dom.

In an interview on the World at One, Montgomerie, who is particularly close to Sajid Javid, the former chancellor who was effectively sacked because he would not let No 10 choose his advisers, said he was especially worried about the influence of Cummings, Johnson’s chief adviser.

What I worry about is that [Cummings] is a brilliant figure, but half of his ideas are crazy, and half of his ideas are good. He shouldn’t be in a leadership position, he shouldn’t be in a dominant position. And I’m afraid that is what has happened inside Downing Street ... The Vote Leave operation that Dominic Cummings ran during the EU referendum has essentially been transplanted into Downing Street, and there is a lack of diversity in thought and personnel as a result.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

Professor Neil Ferguson, has about as much credibility as a pox doctors clerk, have a look at what other scientists say about him and his past predictions.

No need for the ad hominems - play the ball not the man, in this case he's just stating simple maths.

I'm sorry, but if he is stood there in Downing Street alongside the PM spouting words that the PM agrees with then he is much more part of Government than I am or anyone else who is not a Tory Minister.

He's part of the machinery of government, but that doesn't mean he's "part of Boris' government". If Corbyn or Screaming Lord Sutch had a majority, he would still be there. I'll repeat - we don't have the US system where much of the machinery of government at a senior level is appointed directly by the politicans.

Professor Neil Ferguson (a Member of SAGE who was advising the Government) said that the number of Coronavirus deaths would have been halved if lockdown had been introduced earlier. However, Boris said it was still too early to make such a judgement. All the time, Boris told us that he was following scientific advice when he obviously wasn't.

The "following scientific advice" thing is a real cop-out, as scientists will often disagree - so politicians can select the advice that suits them and ignore the rest. Look out for much more of that in coming months as Johnson desperately tries to dump the blame on Vallance and Whitty. Anyway, you and foxy misunderstand what Ferguson said - he was saying it this week, in hindsight, as part of his evidence to the Commons Science and Technology Committee:
“We knew the epidemic was doubling every three to four days before lockdown interventions were introduced. So had we introduced lockdown measures a week earlier, we would have reduced the final death toll by at least a half."

That's just basic maths - if infections are doubling every 3.5 days then in a week you will have 4x the starting number. If lockdown manages to halve the infection rate, then in a week you will have 2x the starting number.

So Ferguson isn't saying anything particularly profound, he just understands maths.

Far more serious than Ferguson is the document that's been leaked that allegedly shows Steven Riley of Imperial recommending to SPI-M on 9 March that "Governments need to devote the entirety of their attention and resources to creating viable ongoing solutions to the presence of this virus. We suggest that the first step is to adopt stringent fixed-term social distancing so as to give time for detailed planning the rapid development of any accompanying technology."

I suppose that, like the Members of SAGE, Senior Civil Servants and "Advisors" none of them are part of Boris's Government

Remember what I said above - would Cummings have the same job if Corbyn was in power? No.

SpAds are in a bit of a unique position, as one of the few direct appointees of a PM, and clearly the only reason Cummings has stayed on is through Johnson's personal patronage. Once again he's used the flexibility afforded by an unwritten consitution to bypass some of the usual mechanisms, that eg expect a PM to sacrifice an underling rather than toss his government's credibility under the bus and lose 10+ points in the polls.

In comparison, I'd note that a member of SAGE - Ferguson - was kicked out after a far less serious infringement of the lockdown.

BJ is a showman and was brought in by the Tories to do one thing and one thing alone. Win the Dec '19 election. I believe they thought they could control him as he's proved many times he's pretty lazy and incompetent. But BJ concluded that the route to staying in power was Brexit and the delivery of it (after all he picked up many new voters in the north on this issue). So he got rid of any waiverer or remainers and surrounded himself with a cabinet who only selection criteria was a similar commitment to delivering Brexit. So the cabinet we have now is to do one thing and one thing alone. Deliver brexit. No matter how competent or intelligent they are.

On the other hand they could have elected this guy a year ago, who was saying this on 12 March :

 

[MyQul]

No need for the ad hominems - play the ball not the man, in this case he's just stating simple maths.



He's part of the machinery of government, but that doesn't mean he's "part of Boris' government". If Corbyn or Screaming Lord Sutch had a majority, he would still be there. I'll repeat - we don't have the US system where much of the machinery of government at a senior level is appointed directly by the politicans.


The "following scientific advice" thing is a real cop-out, as scientists will often disagree - so politicians can select the advice that suits them and ignore the rest. Look out for much more of that in coming months as Johnson desperately tries to dump the blame on Vallance and Whitty. Anyway, you and foxy misunderstand what Ferguson said - he was saying it this week, in hindsight, as part of his evidence to the Commons Science and Technology Committee:
“We knew the epidemic was doubling every three to four days before lockdown interventions were introduced. So had we introduced lockdown measures a week earlier, we would have reduced the final death toll by at least a half."

That's just basic maths - if infections are doubling every 3.5 days then in a week you will have 4x the starting number. If lockdown manages to halve the infection rate, then in a week you will have 2x the starting number.

So Ferguson isn't saying anything particularly profound, he just understands maths.

Far more serious than Ferguson is the document that's been leaked that allegedly shows Steven Riley of Imperial recommending to SPI-M on 9 March that "Governments need to devote the entirety of their attention and resources to creating viable ongoing solutions to the presence of this virus. We suggest that the first step is to adopt stringent fixed-term social distancing so as to give time for detailed planning the rapid development of any accompanying technology."



Remember what I said above - would Cummings have the same job if Corbyn was in power? No.

SpAds are in a bit of a unique position, as one of the few direct appointees of a PM, and clearly the only reason Cummings has stayed on is through Johnson's personal patronage. Once again he's used the flexibility afforded by an unwritten consitution to bypass some of the usual mechanisms, that eg expect a PM to sacrifice an underling rather than toss his government's credibility under the bus and lose 10+ points in the polls.

In comparison, I'd note that a member of SAGE - Ferguson - was kicked out after a far less serious infringement of the lockdown.



On the other hand they could have elected this guy a year ago, who was saying this on 12 March :

Rory Stewart comes across as quite thoughtful and intelligent. Not at all the showman so he had no chance with the the tory membership

 

[Chippy_Tea]

And for those reasons i would have liked Andy Burnham to be Labour leader i have seen him on Question time and on T.V many times and i like the way he comes across.

 

[trueblue]

And for those reasons i would have liked Andy Burnham to be Labour leader i have seen him on Question time and on T.V many times and i like the way he comes across.

He showed good credentials with the way he fought for the Hillsborough victims.

 

[Cheshire Cat]

And for those reasons i would have liked Andy Burnham to be Labour leader i have seen him on Question time and on T.V many times and i like the way he comes across.

I'm totally with you on Andy he is a Labour leader in waiting, I voted for Keir as he was the only sensible candidate.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

I'm totally with you on Andy he is a Labour leader in waiting, I voted for Keir as he was the only sensible candidate.

I didn't vote but if i did he was the only one i would have voted for i think he will be a good leader but he already has his haters.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

Rory Stewart comes across as quite thoughtful and intelligent. Not at all the showman so he had no chance with the the tory membership

In modern politics more like. But if you look at his CV he's packed a lot into 47 years - a diplomat in the Balkans, running a province of Iraq and then spending a lot of time in Afghanistan, it's rather better preparation for the complexity of running the UK than sitting at a computer making unfortunate jokes about letterboxes. It's easy to poke fun at an Eton/Oxford education, but it can work.

And more generally he's had that experience of developing countries, who in general have had a much better response to Covid than the Western industrialised countries, just because they're a lot more used to infectious disease.

 

[Dutto]

............... making unfortunate jokes about letterboxes. ....

....

Boris's comment about "watermelon smiles" and "big white chief" made even me wince!

It may have been a long time ago (2002) but it showed everyone what a Grade A Racist he was then and still is.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/23/africa/boris-johnson-africa-intl/index.html

 

[An Ankoù]

Boris's comment about "watermelon smiles" and "big white chief" made even me wince!
u think he should be pulled from his pedestal and
It may have been a long time ago (2002) but it showed everyone what a Grade A Racist he was then and still is.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/23/africa/boris-johnson-africa-intl/index.html

You think he should be pulled from his pedestal and unceremoniously dumped in the Thames, then?

 

[MyQul]

England's chief nurse was dropped from one of Downing Street's daily coronavirus briefings after refusing to publicly back Dominic Cummings, senior sources have told The Independent.

As Boris Johnson's chief aide was engulfed in scandal over his trips to Durham and Barnard Castle during lockdown, Ruth May had been due to appear alongside health secretary Matt Hancock in the press conference.


But, in practice questions hours before the briefing, she was asked about Mr Cummings and, after failing to give support to the prime minister’s chief adviser, she was immediately dropped from the press conference, according to senior NHS sources.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...y-daily-briefing-downing-street-a9562741.html

 

[Linalmeemow]

First (as far as I know) instance of legal action against the government for their handling of hospital discharges to care homes. I doubt it'll be the last:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-53012565

 

[Shirley Bassett]

In Industry when you get an idiot in management they generally get promoted to a place where they can do least damage. This is a concept that the Conservatives cant grasp.

 

[Cheshire Cat]

In Industry when you get an idiot in management they generally get promoted to a place where they can do least damage. This is a concept that the Conservatives cant grasp.

The Tories are ruthless at getting rid of losers though.

 

[Shirley Bassett]

Couldn’t agree more. Corbyn, twice, would be top of my list.

 

[Dutto]

You think he should be pulled from his pedestal and unceremoniously dumped in the Thames, then?

Let me put it this way! In theory I am against human sacrifice but occasionally someone behaves so badly that, in my mind, they make themselves eligible.

First (as far as I know) instance of legal action against the government for their handling of hospital discharges to care homes. I doubt it'll be the last:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-53012565

On the 7th April, I was in Lincoln Hospital having a fracture to my left femur mended. This was when the NHS powers that be were trying to empty hospitals to cope with the expected rush of Covid-19 patients; and as a result, I was offered a transfer to a Care Home in Skegness on the 10th April, which I refused.

I think I dodged a bullet by refusing and finally discharged myself to go home on the Monday, 13th (Easter Monday)!

Unlucky to fall and break my leg - but lucky enough to send myself home!

 

[Falco]

Whilst waiting for my first brew in some 40 years to ferment out, amongst other pastimes I like coming across new words, and I have to say Kakistocracy could take the first prize in these turbulent times. It describes precisely the situation we all find ourselves in and thought I’d share it here :hat:

Kakistocracy “a system of government that is run by the worst, least qualified, and/or most unscrupulous citizens”.

There seems to be a fair few governments around the world at the moment running their countries in such a manner none more so than this shower: Why is Dominic Cummings still in No. 10?

Up Kak creek without a paddle?

 

[dad_of_jon]

I have a simple question... is covid-19's R natural rate ALWAYS = 3. Clearly it can't be. So have decisions been made on this? - The problem is we've not seen all the data the gov't uses to make decisions on and so I guess our views on Govt success or not may be influenced by our political leanings?

 

[Shirley Bassett]

The Chief Medical Officer and the SNP often quote, at the peak, the R rate in Scotland was somewhere between 4 and 6.

It is currently quoted as being between 0.6 and 0.8, yet we are still in much tighter lockdown, and generally it is holding.

They also state that it takes at least 2 weeks, but could be up to 4 weeks for any results of lockdown release measures to filter through into the case numbers and hospital admissions.

Whilst they acknowledge the R rate is dropping, they mainly quote the incidents as reason for keeping lockdown in place. The Conservatives don’t appear to grasp this concept.

The SNP have also said it could mid to late 2023 before the Scottish economy is back to normal.

They aren’t guilt free as they too have a right dogs **** of the discharge of old folks into care home without testing. They still haven’t got a grip on testing staff and residents in care homes, and 50% of the deaths up here are from that sector.

Last figure I saw for incidents in England was 39,000 a week and a R of 0.9

39,000 x 0.9 = 35,100 x 0.9 = 31,590 and so on. Pick your own end point when you think it under control and then count the number of 0.9s.

Yes it’s a very simplistic approach, but last time I did this, it calculated out as the point at which the furlough scheme ends.

 

[MyQul]

Latest Tory balls up (followed by screeching U-turn), The Marcus Rashford free school meals story

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53059683