Farrage on NATO

[JockyBrewer]

Sorry, where do you take the figures?
The reason why I am doubtful is because I knew several people who did one of the following:

Taking the pure GDP per capita there’s a huge difference. But even adjusted for purchasing power parity Estonia and Latvia are considerably better off than Belarus
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

Not sure it means much, but I’ve been to both Belarus and Ukraine, albeit 15 years ago. The east of Ukraine was quite grim, although in both countries I actively was welcomed by locals (and plied with vodka!).

 

[Chippy_Tea]

I would've left after my second term and would not have filled the Duma with cronies to change the constitution to ensure I could rule for life. He is just a gangster.

He was already in that job for life when -

NATO flexed their muscles and waited for the reaction

My question was in relation to that statement -

Can I ask what you would have done if you were him?

 

[Brew_DD2]

He was already in that job for life when -



My question was in relation to that statement -

Not very much. NATO are absolutely no danger to Putin or Russia. We had great relations with Russia prior to his invasion of Georgia and annexation of Crimea. We positively encouraged Putin's mates to clean their money through London.

He's long held aspirations for the restoration of the USSR, and we shouldn't be held accountable for his actions, no matter the excuses he gives.

You don't appease people like Putin.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

We had great relations with Russia prior to his invasion of Georgia and annexation of Crimea. We positively encouraged Putin's mates to clean their money through London.

I remember talk about this at the time i dont remember ever seeing it or hearing it discussed on our news channels -

The Ukrainian leadership was ready to settle the conflict with Russia but gave up under the US pressure, Russia’s Security Council Secretary Nikolay Patrushev said on Thursday.

"Had it not been for the US pressure on those whom they installed at the head of Ukraine, this situation would have not happened, Even the Ukrainian leaders themselves were ready for signing a peace treaty and gave Russia written proposals that we, in principle, approved," Patrushev said, obviously referring to the negotiations between the Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Turkey in March last year.

However, as Patrushev went on to say, "in the morning, they [members of the Ukrainian delegation] gave [the proposals] to us during the negotiations and in the evening they said: ‘No, we give them up.’"

"This happened only because the United States had put pressure on them and said that no negotiations must be held," the secretary of Russia’s Security Council stressed.

 

[JockyBrewer]

I remember talk about this at the time i dont remember ever seeing it or hearing it discussed on our news channels
The Ukrainian leadership was ready to settle the conflict with Russia but gave up under the US pressure, Russia’s Security Council Secretary Nikolay Patrushev said on Thursday.

Putin’s spokespeople say stuff like this all the time, without any evidence that it actually happened.

And once said it gets used as a stick to beat Ukrainian supporters with. e.g. Trump and supporters will say that Russia wants peace and that Biden doesn’t and point at these statements, and enough people will repeat it that many will believe it to be fact.

At best it might make the Ukraine supporters stop, at worst they have to spend time discrediting it.

In reality if Russia wanted to end this they could with a ceasefire or withdrawal.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Putin’s spokespeople say stuff like this all the time, without any evidence that it actually happened.

If it was all lies wouldn't our and the Americas news agencies have been all over it like a rash?

 

[Brew_DD2]

If it was all lies wouldn't our and the Americas news agencies have been all over it like a rash?

No they rightly don't give it airtime.

 

[dad_of_jon]

russia wanted a buffer zone without having an opposing force on its border. much like the usa had a problem with cuba.

I agree appeasement never works out in the end, but winding up an unstable leader is not a good idea either. When the ussr was a thing russians were encouraged to move to the various satellite states so in the future the USSR could invade such a state on the premise of protecting its russian people there.
all that was needed to deflate the issue was to give the satellite states DMZ status a la no nato or USSR/Russian forces in those regions, and if one DMZ state attacked another then both Russian and NATO would provide assistance to kick them back out.

 

[old dog new tricks]

If you believe anything the Russia turns out then shame on you remember this is the same country that used nerve agent on UK soil to commit murder. This is the same Russia that tried to deraul UN peace keepers in the former Yugoslavia when they half heartedly tried to hold an airport.
Same Russia that refuses to call the Special Operation the illegal invasion it is.
Same Russia that brain washes it citizens with how the west attacked them and uses the vile reference to Hitler in reference to Ukraine.
Same Russia that targets civilian targets including schools and hospitals.
Same Russia that rattled the nuclear sabre numerous times
Same Russia that uses chemical weapons

 

[dad_of_jon]

If you believe anything the Russia turns out then shame on you remember this is the same country that used nerve agent on UK soil to commit murder. This is the same Russia that tried to deraul UN peace keepers in the former Yugoslavia when they half heartedly tried to hold an airport.
Same Russia that refuses to call the Special Operation the illegal invasion it is.
Same Russia that brain washes it citizens with how the west attacked them and uses the vile reference to Hitler in reference to Ukraine.
Same Russia that targets civilian targets including schools and hospitals.
Same Russia that rattled the nuclear sabre numerous times
Same Russia that uses chemical weapons

I don't, I merely suggest a way we could have handled russia more appropriately after the breakup of the ussr

 

[old dog new tricks]

russia wanted a buffer zone without having an opposing force on its border. much like the usa had a problem with cuba.

I agree appeasement never works out in the end, but winding up an unstable leader is not a good idea either. When the ussr was a thing russians were encouraged to move to the various satellite states so in the future the USSR could invade such a state on the premise of protecting its russian people there.
all that was needed to deflate the issue was to give the satellite states DMZ status a la no nato or USSR/Russian forces in those regions, and if one DMZ state attacked another then both Russian and NATO would provide assistance to kick them back out.

Yes it's true the politics and statesmanship has failed and should have de escalated this a long time ago but allowing the annex of Crimea unchecked was the beginning of the end it was a matter of time then designed to exploit weakness in the Western allies, cast your mind back Russia know how to wait out a harsh winter and see out their opponents look at how they ground out the victory against Germany in WW2.

This was designed to expose weakness in NATO and drive wedges in Europe and the US.

This is just the start desiged to test if NATO or the west will intervene if other major players move on their targets

 

[Omega]

Just to get people confused: Putin wanted to join NATO, but it was us who wanted him to "get in line". He also wanted to join EU, but again we told him to "get in line".

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-wanted-to-join-alliance-early-on-in-his-rule

 

[old dog new tricks]

Just to get people confused: Putin wanted to join NATO, but it was us who wanted him to "get in line". He also wanted to join EU, but again we told him to "get in line".

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-wanted-to-join-alliance-early-on-in-his-rule

Yes this was at the start of his reign where to be fair he was a relative unknown in the international world, but think about it if he got Russia into NATO and EU very unlikely they would pick up arms against him, more like he would use the combined muscle to 'influence' world order as he has tried to.

He did not see Russia as a member, more an equal partner, which of course was refused.

World Politics changed in this time China became a superpower, America came under attack on its own soil and crucially the NATO backed the US in its response, now given this was the same power designed to defend member nations from then Soviet Pact, this must have resonated and shown Putin he would never be accepted.
He sought to make allies in the east who shared his dislike for the US and the west and so a dictator was born.

NATO and the UN have watched this situation evolve for decades, if Russia did not possess a massive nuclear arsenal they would have acted long ago to snuff this out, but the fear that Putin may reach for the last resort has left them powerless and weakened and he knows it.

The arms treaty on nuclear weapons expires next year or 2026, neither side have committed to a new agreement, this means Russia can now build as many nuclear weapons as they want as they are under no agreements of obligations and unlikely to come back to the table at this time.

The monster has grown and now it looks like no one no thing can put him back in his box the only hope is his own people turn on him with the prospect of mutually assured destruction, right now the illegal invasion has little or no effect on a lot of Russian people, however if Putin starts the nuclear arms race again not sure everyone will be onboard with that, the Oligarchs and organised crime syndicates that masquerade as Russian Authorities will see gravy train derail, you can't make money when you kill your customers!

The rest of the world is watching closely to see what is tolerable now Putin has raised the bar on what is acceptable

​

 

[JockyBrewer]

if Putin starts the nuclear arms race again not sure everyone will be onboard with that, the Oligarchs and organised crime syndicates that masquerade as Russian Authorities will see gravy train derail, you can't make money when you kill your customers!

I wonder if this is already happening. There's been a lot of suspicious deaths of Oligarchs recently: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suspicious_deaths_of_notable_Russians_(2022–2024)

 

[Omega]

Yes this was at the start of his reign where to be fair he was a relative unknown in the international world, but think about it if he got Russia into NATO and EU very unlikely they would pick up arms against him, more like he would use the combined muscle to 'influence' world order as he has tried to.

He did not see Russia as a member, more an equal partner, which of course was refused.

World Politics changed in this time China became a superpower, America came under attack on its own soil and crucially the NATO backed the US in its response, now given this was the same power designed to defend member nations from then Soviet Pact, this must have resonated and shown Putin he would never be accepted.
He sought to make allies in the east who shared his dislike for the US and the west and so a dictator was born.

NATO and the UN have watched this situation evolve for decades, if Russia did not possess a massive nuclear arsenal they would have acted long ago to snuff this out, but the fear that Putin may reach for the last resort has left them powerless and weakened and he knows it.

The arms treaty on nuclear weapons expires next year or 2026, neither side have committed to a new agreement, this means Russia can now build as many nuclear weapons as they want as they are under no agreements of obligations and unlikely to come back to the table at this time.

The monster has grown and now it looks like no one no thing can put him back in his box the only hope is his own people turn on him with the prospect of mutually assured destruction, right now the illegal invasion has little or no effect on a lot of Russian people, however if Putin starts the nuclear arms race again not sure everyone will be onboard with that, the Oligarchs and organised crime syndicates that masquerade as Russian Authorities will see gravy train derail, you can't make money when you kill your customers!

The rest of the world is watching closely to see what is tolerable now Putin has raised the bar on what is acceptable

​

If Russia joined EU and NATO then we would have a hell strong ally to extend our reign and suppress any unrest anywhere in the globe - Russia influences Central Asia, Caucasus, Far East and now challenging our dominance in Africa (via Wagner), even South America (via BRICS). Surely such a powerful country is at least an equal partner
However, this did not happen because the EU reached its economic growth capacity at that moment and could not expand for a time being. The window was open until around 2009 because some Russian generals were contemplating purchasing Leopard 2 for Russian army and it was when Russia ordered French helicopter carrier
Inability to see that it was a monster that had a capacity to grow is our mistake. I fear they only can grow further, and rapid expansion of BRICS may support this hypothesis

 

[JockyBrewer]

The problem was going to be that Putin would have done to NATO/EU what he does on the UN Security Council and neuter the whole thing.

He would only want to be a member if he could have a controlling influence so that everyone was dancing to his tune. It was never going to happen in NATO, and I struggle to see him even allowing the trade/legal control the EU demands either.

 

[Omega]

Taking the pure GDP per capita there’s a huge difference. But even adjusted for purchasing power parity Estonia and Latvia are considerably better off than Belarus
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

Not sure it means much, but I’ve been to both Belarus and Ukraine, albeit 15 years ago. The east of Ukraine was quite grim, although in both countries I actively was welcomed by locals (and plied with vodka!).

GDP is a good measure, but PPP is another one that takes into consideration the true value of goods. Also, countries evolve quickly.

The problem was going to be that Putin would have done to NATO/EU what he does on the UN Security Council and neuter the whole thing.

He would only want to be a member if he could have a controlling influence so that everyone was dancing to his tune. It was never going to happen in NATO, and I struggle to see him even allowing the trade/legal control the EU demands either.

This is in agreement with Mearsheimer's offensive realism political theory - any country would act in self interest and push their influence as far as other countries would allow. We acted the same way - went to Russian borders because they could not control us, fought many wars until Russia checked us in Syria.

 

[Jahfish]

He's like Ryan air. Will say anything to keep himself in the headlines and drum up publicity

Difference being, I don't mind Ryanair

 

[hoppyscotty]

russia wanted a buffer zone without having an opposing force on its border. much like the usa had a problem with cuba.

I agree appeasement never works out in the end, but winding up an unstable leader is not a good idea either. When the ussr was a thing russians were encouraged to move to the various satellite states so in the future the USSR could invade such a state on the premise of protecting its russian people there.
all that was needed to deflate the issue was to give the satellite states DMZ status a la no nato or USSR/Russian forces in those regions, and if one DMZ state attacked another then both Russian and NATO would provide assistance to kick them back out.

Russia wanting a buffer zone is an understatement...it's essential for the defence of Russia and for them to have a good defence of their own territory from ground attack/invasion and access to strategic ports to project their Naval power. Russia is still living with a mindset that they must be strong and powerful and that Russia somehow is entitled to have a huge empire at its disposal and the decline of Russia over the last 100 years or so, maybe longer, is a problem for Russians. So Putin is still trying to reclaim the glory days of the Empire.

And of course appeasement never works...been tried many times through history and has failed every time with disastrous consequences...so though it is true that the expansion of the EU and NATO is the cause of Putins actions, that is not to say it is NATO or the EU's fault..in the same way that the way Germany was treated after WW1 led to the rise of the Nazi's and Hitler, but you cant really say it is their fault - the fault lies totally with the Nazi's and Hitler.

There is another angle to this meaning it is essential we send a message that tin pot dictators like Putin cannot be seen to be getting away with their actions and being rewarded in any way...that is that other tin pot dictators, and one non-tin pot dictator in particular, are watching and seeing this as a test of the international communities response to such actions. In particular China will be watching and taking notes as it ponders its own invasion of Taiwan and its ever increasing attempts to take control of other territories. If we dont stand upto Putin then the chances of China escalating their own boarder disputes is low, but if we are passive in our response then that will encourage China to be more proactive. So a huge part of this is posturing.

 

[old dog new tricks]

Russia wanting a buffer zone is an understatement...it's essential for the defence of Russia and for them to have a good defence of their own territory from ground attack/invasion and access to strategic ports to project their Naval power. Russia is still living with a mindset that they must be strong and powerful and that Russia somehow is entitled to have a huge empire at its disposal and the decline of Russia over the last 100 years or so, maybe longer, is a problem for Russians. So Putin is still trying to reclaim the glory days of the Empire.

And of course appeasement never works...been tried many times through history and has failed every time with disastrous consequences...so though it is true that the expansion of the EU and NATO is the cause of Putins actions, that is not to say it is NATO or the EU's fault..in the same way that the way Germany was treated after WW1 led to the rise of the Nazi's and Hitler, but you cant really say it is their fault - the fault lies totally with the Nazi's and Hitler.

There is another angle to this meaning it is essential we send a message that tin pot dictators like Putin cannot be seen to be getting away with their actions and being rewarded in any way...that is that other tin pot dictators, and one non-tin pot dictator in particular, are watching and seeing this as a test of the international communities response to such actions. In particular China will be watching and taking notes as it ponders its own invasion of Taiwan and its ever increasing attempts to take control of other territories. If we dont stand upto Putin then the chances of China escalating their own boarder disputes is low, but if we are passive in our response then that will encourage China to be more proactive. So a huge part of this is posturing.

You make some excellent points this is posturing at the highest level but lives are being lost due to it.

Its clear the economic sanctions have failed as many are dancing round them buying from a 3rd party or selling in kit form to avoid the sanctions etc.

There needs to be a strong message that attacking a sovereign nation and trying to claim their land in an illegal war, will not be tolerated.

The UN Security Council SHOULD have the power to invoke chapter vii - Peace Enforcement (not peace keeping) but the structure of UN will not allow this as Russia as being a Permanent member can veto any security council resolution making it totally useless.

the very wording of Peace Enforcement is what is required wit the illegal invasion, if a UN led enforcement Putin saves face as the peacemaker ( i would like to think even Putin would not be so crazy as to attack the famous Blue Helmets of the UN) by supporting supporting the UN as a Permanent Member, and Ukraine might get some rest bite to rebuild and prepare for his next mad turn.

Given the UN is crippled an cannot support this exposes a major flaw in world security , given this was a function of the UN its a massive failing.

Not sure what the answer is, but its clear if Putin is allowed to continue other dictators or extreme leaders will see it as open season and do as they wish.