Covid Passports

[Chippy_Tea]

Ah... A personal assessment of risk then. That will never catch on.

I don't think you could be more wrong.
I think there is a lot of evidence in this thread alone that would suggest personal assessment is going to be what we will all do if they bring passports, flow testing or just throw the pub doors open, people are going to weight the risks up and make a decision on that.

But once again, you have offered literally nothing, and its not just you, Boris Johnson hasn't either, to quantify how or why a vaccine passport keeps anyone safer

I don't have to prove to you why i think a passport or lateral flow (which you conveniently missed) will keep me safer i refer you to my slightly edited earlier post -

It makes no odds that you think all those who do not want to mix in close proximity to those that haven't had the *** have got this all wrong that is their belief and you are not going to change their minds by constantly trotting out the same old same old here i will not visit a pub or restaurant if they have no restriction on who is allowed in be it a passport or lateral flow testing that is my decision and try as you might to prove it the wrong one its not going to change anything.

 

[Brewnaldo]

Well yes as i explained two seconds ago in the post you have quoted but thanks for reminding us.

I think there is a lot of evidence in this thread alone to suggest personal assessment is going to be what we will all do when or if they bring passports, flow testing or just throw the doors open.

Seems like you are just trying to shut down discussion about vaccine passports here, on a thread about vaccine passports? Seems to be a bit of a theme of your moderation style when things are posted that you disagree with

It makes no difference what any of us post on a home brew forum in the grand scheme of things, but the "trotting out the same old same old" jibe is more than a little rich as far as this thread has gone.

So with all of that said, I will bow out of the thread now.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Seems like you are just trying to shut down discussion about vaccine passports here, on a thread about vaccine passports? Seems to be a bit of a theme of your moderation style when things are posted that you disagree with

Here we go again with the moderating accusations
How am i shutting down discussion i have given my own personal views as a member (not a moderator) who has had the vaccine and who would rather not mix with those that haven't how is that shutting discussion down?

It makes no difference what any of us post on a home brew forum in the grand scheme of things, but the "trotting out the same old same old" jibe is more than a little rich as far as this thread has gone.

I posted that because it is all you have done since the thread started you have basically told everyone who has had a *** and doesn't want to mix with those that haven't they are wrong for having this view and have asked many members to give you evidence as to why they think they would be safer when i suggest its their personal choice you accuse me of shouting down discussion and dodgy moderating.

 

[Brew_DD2]

I've had the vaccine and would rather everyone did to keep transmission rates as low as possible, I just don't see any vaccine passport as being the way forward, and that's assuming it works as it is intended. Let us not forget the colossal ****-up that has been test and trace.

It's all academic anyway, as it's looking likely it's going to be implemented. I should probably take the view that it won't affect me, so bring it on.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

That's a rather disingenuous argument. The explosion of cases in the winter was, as you know, against a backdrop of a population that hadn't yet been vaccinated.

Nobody's safe until everybody's safe. Until everyone's vaccinated you have to assume that there will be variants that break the vaccine - we've already got a fairly good idea of some of the mutations to watch out for thanks to papers like this, which demonstrate some of the ways that the virus might break the vaccine. And this isn't a theoretical problem, we're already starting to see "Kent" variants (B.1.1.7) with the E484K mutation which is one of the most potent at breaking the antibpdy response.

And I'll repeat myself - by October Manaus was considered to have been "vaccinated" (albeit the tough way, through infection), but has suffered terribly over the winter thanks to a variant that breaks that natural immunity. I would also call attention to Chile, which has had one of the best vaccination programmes (it's second only to Israel and a few microstates in full vaccinations, at >20% - and behind UK and Israel on first jabs at 36%), but which has seen cases double in the last 6 weeks and deaths almost double in the last week.

In that case we're going to be in this situation in perpetuity, because the younger age groups are just not going to take the vaccination in anywhere near the same numbers. A Covid passport isn't going to change that.

Evidence? I see others have posted on this, I'd also mention this Oxford survey, comparing vaccine acceptance in the first week of October (left) with first week in February (right). Yes, the under-30s are the least keen, but even they have gone from 72% to 82% likely to have it in the period in question. Also see how the 50-somethings have gone from 75% to 92% in the same time. Vaccine reluctance is not a big issue in the UK, at least.

And I'll have to disagree with you. People have accepted huge curbs upon their freedom on the basis of protecting our health service from collapse. If people aren't being hospitalised in significant numbers, you'll have a hard time convincing the populous to put up with ongoing restrictions.

As I've said elsewhere - the under 50s have put up with 12 months of hard lockdowns to stop the over 50s dying. Now it's only fair that the over 50s put up with three months of far less stringent restrictions so that the under 50s don't get long Covid, and to reduce the chance of vaccine-breaking variants emerging.

It's not a long time, and these are not severe restrictions, in the context of what we've been through - but a vaccine-breaking variant could take us back to square 1.

FWIW my opposition to a Covid passport has little to do with my own vaccination status and more to do with my perception of its utility. I just don't see it being able to achieve any of the desired effects or stated goals.

I think the first thing to say is that there is no silver bullet, not even vaccines. There is nothing that on its own will 100% get rid of Covid. If there was, we would be using it.

The only way we beat it is by stacking several responses that work partially. 70% here, 50% reduction there, and we get it down sufficiently that it goes away. So "there won't be 100% compliance" or "people will fake it" is no argument - there doesn't have to be, just so long as the sum of the various measures gets R down below 1 (and ideally a lot below 1).

But I must admit, I'm not clear what you think the "desired effects and goals" of vaccine passports are - perhaps if you can list what you think they are, then it's possible to see how well those effects and goals are being met.

 

[Brew_DD2]

Vaccine reluctance is not a big issue in the UK, at least.

But as it is across Europe, then by your own admission, we're going to continue to see variants and the passport system won't be temporary.

But I must admit, I'm not clear what you think the "desired effects and goals" of vaccine passports are

To keep vaccinated and unvaccinated people from mixing.

Vaccine acceptance may have increased, but it remains to be seen whether the young will be vaccinated in the numbers that the older people have. Again, by your own argument, we're not safe until we're all safe. How do you square that circle?

I'm certainly not averse to restrictions being in place to protect lives and keep our health service functioning, but there comes a time where the level of risk is deemed acceptable.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

But as it is across Europe, then by your own admission, we're going to continue to see variants and the passport system won't be temporary.

Citation needed for "as it is across Europe" - don't be misled by some of the more hysterical reporting about Europe in the media. Because eg the YouGov tracker has much of Europe at around 70% being likely to get jabbed, which is where the UK was at Christmas. Yes, France is an exception at around 50%, but in general I think you'll see a general growth in confidence as people see their neighbours getting jabbed, and the message gets through that yes the jabs are pretty safe. So I'm fairly relaxed about that.

I'm not clear what you think the "desired effects and goals" of vaccine passports are
To keep vaccinated and unvaccinated people from mixing.

Well obviously that's not going to happen, as most mixing of vax/non-vax will happen in the home and in non-passported places like supermarkets. You have to look at this in the context of tension between keeping things closed down to purge the virus, and opening up the economy again.

The purpose of vaccine passports is to save the Treasury furlough/subsidy cash, by allowing economic activity to happen that would otherwise be closed on medical grounds. The thinking is that opening up to 60% of the population is better than being open to 0% of the population - and although few will spell it out loud, the opposition among publicans is mainly on economic grounds, they suffer more being half-open than being completely closed.

Now obviously events have overtaken this thread, yesterday Johnson said that they wouldn't be passporting pubs at least for now, but it's almost certain for international travel and highly likely for "mass gatherings and indoor events" such as sports matches and nightclubs. Personally it feels like we're on enough of a knifeedge at the moment that as at Christmas, large numbers of deaths will turn on apparently small decisions where Johnson's need to people-please overrides the need for unpopular decisions, but we'll see. So much depends on what variants we have in the UK in the summer.

A secondary goal of passports is to help employers observe their obligations to provide employees with a safe work environment - since most barstaff are too young to have been jabbed yet, they are at risk from any infected customers that come in a pub. If all customers are vaccinated, then customers are far less likely to be infected (but not guaranteed to be so) and are far less likely to transmit to barstaff if they are infected. That makes the barstaff much safer - without reducing their risk of infection to zero. It's a bit like requiring everyone who drives a car to have passed a test as certified by the possession of a driving licence - it doesn't guarantee that they will always drive safely,but hopefully it will reduce the risk to other road users.

Vaccine acceptance may have increased, but it remains to be seen whether the young will be vaccinated in the numbers that the older people have. Again, by your own argument, we're not safe until we're all safe. How do you square that circle?

I think the onus is on the pessimists on that one. If we're seeing ~95% vaccination among the over-50s and 85% among the 18-49's (and hopefully the trials on teenagers will be complete so we can start on them too), then that is getting to the kind of levels where "classic" Covid is under control. So vaccine reluctance is fairly low on my list of things to worry about, apart from a handful of countries like France and Hong Kong where more work needs to be done.

From a UK perspective, we've got enough people willing to be jabbed to keep the pipeline going for a good 3+ months, and then we see where we are.

I'm more worried about things on a global scale, all this stupid squabbling with the EU has distracted from the need to get vaccine to the countries which really need it like Brazil, which seem to have a healthcare system on the verge of collapse - they've had 22-year-olds dying whilst waiting for an intensive care bed.

I'm certainly not averse to restrictions being in place to protect lives and keep our health service functioning, but there comes a time where the level of risk is deemed acceptable.

The trouble is, people are pretty lousy at assessing risk, particularly in the early stages of an exponential curve. Remember the thing about one grain of rice on a chessboard and then doubling it every square until you end up with over a trillion tons of rice on the board? This is one of those kinds of situations.

And we now have the proof that the way to get out of this is hitting the virus hard and early, harder than people "think" is needed "given the risk". The countries that went hard from the start, like Taiwan and NZ, are now pretty much back to normal, whereas countries like US/UK that had politicians that were consistently behind the curve and reacting to events, are still struggling with economic restrictions.

I completely understand the instinct to only respond when it feels like a "risk" is present - but that's almost always too late. Conversely when relaxing restrictions, slow and steady is the way to win the race.

 

[BrewMeHappy]

Domestically I can't see it working unless there is legislation for it. Making people show they have had a *** or are tested negative to get into a pub or restaurant which isn't law will just mean the place next door will say come in here instead as we don't want to see your passport.

It then needs to be a globally recognised system. Will it be the same 'passport' you show in the pub here, which is the same you show at the airport, and the same you show to the museum on holiday? That sounds like it could be a nightmare to implement.

As said already, it could only be rolled out once everyone has been offered and had the vaccine otherwise that would be completely unfair.

On the other hand, what makes Covid the driver for vaccine passports. What about all the other vaccines we have or could have for other diseases?

 

[The Baron]

I think people are still missing the point its not about being fair its about getting businesses back up and running in as safe as perceivable manner it also means travel companies can only offer holidays to people who have been jabbed then at least they can open up immediately and it is ongoing so each week another half million more will be eligible and bear in mind it may be other countries that determine whether people will be allowed in with jabs and hopefully we will only allow our citizens to go to low risk venues without further covid restrictions such as isolation/quarentine .
As Northern brewer said its about businesses only being able to operate with only a partial customer market and they are resisting because they want it all.
Lifes not fair and neither is this virus

 

[trummy]

The wife and I had Covid (we are pretty sure) just over one year ago, the wife caught a bus that was full and ended up sitting next to a lady who was coughing the entire journey. This was way before any lockdown, or any action at all by 'it'll be alright on the night' BoJo.

I want to return to the sports stadiums, concert halls and Pubs but would like to think the person next to me was as safe as possible, not only to me but to the person next to them. If that scenario can be achieved then I will take the very slight risk of returning to what was my normal life, That I believe will require some sort of passport. (jabbed you are in, unjabbed on yer bike.)
As NB said some countries acted decisively around 12 months ago and have had a good results. If we had been more proactive we may well have been better off.
We have got to get the exit strategy dead right or this pandemic will run on and on. Not what anyone wants surely.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

On the other hand, what makes Covid the driver for vaccine passports. What about all the other vaccines we have or could have for other diseases?

Vaccine certificates have long been a completely normal part of travel between countries, as I mentioned back in #104. They're not some new thing being brought in for Covid.

It then needs to be a globally recognised system. Will it be the same 'passport' you show in the pub here, which is the same you show at the airport, and the same you show to the museum on holiday? That sounds like it could be a nightmare to implement.

It's not too hard to imagine a more rigorous system being used for international travel and a more accommodating one domestically. It's quite normal for a passport to be the only acceptable identification when travelling between countries, but driving license etc being acceptable for identification when you need to prove your age for buying drink or whatever.

I suspect that the EU Digital Green Certificate will become the de facto standard for travel between countries - it's the sort of thing that makes no sense to duplicate.

But the UK will anyway. And yes, having multiple systems is less convenient for people who have to check status, and will lead to people falling through the gaps - but then that happens already, I've been refused service in a US bar because they wouldn't accept my passport as a valid proof of ID.

Domestically I can't see it working unless there is legislation for it. Making people show they have had a *** or are tested negative to get into a pub or restaurant which isn't law will just mean the place next door will say come in here instead as we don't want to see your passport.

The evidence of surveys is that assumption isn't correct, that knowing you won't be surrounded by idiots is quite an attractive sell for the place that does enforce passports. But it's moot anyway, it seems current government plans is not to have passports for hospitality, but just for international travel and potentially things like sporting events and music festivals. But yes it would be compulsory, but that's no different to many of the other Covid rules we've had.

As said already, it could only be rolled out once everyone has been offered and had the vaccine otherwise that would be completely unfair.

It's not unfair - it's based on biology, there's a real reason for wanting to exclude the unvaccinated. It's unfair that under-15's can't buy bottles of vodka, it's unfair that I can't play for a Premier League football team* - life's unfair. As discussed above, this isn't about punters, it's about finding a way for government to stop paying furlough - it's a choice between certain types of economic activity happening for 60% of the population, or it being closed down for everyone for a few more months.

*Well, Sheffield Utd might give me a game...

 

[simon12]

 

[aamcle]

A bit of paper to demonstrate that you are trying to protect others, how is that a bad thing?

aamcle

 

[Covrich]

My concern with this is deomstically if there is another or some kind of delay or problem with the vaccine roll out then those of us who have also made big sacrifces would be discriminated and outcasts of society when we have not had the opportunity to have been stuck with the needle.

That being said I understand and accept that it will mean people get access to things before I do and if it helps save businesses then so be it.. I can wait a few months if thats all it would be.

How would it work with families? can I go in to a place resturant with my kids or are they outcasts in society too?

I in theory dont mind it for the purpose it serves but I dont like the presedence it sets.

 

[The Baron]

I think that the government have just about said that Covid Passports will not be used Domestically or if domestically only at large football or music concerts. I believe that is why they are doing these trials for large events that people are talking about so there would be no problems with visiting restaurants or pubs as a family group the only things are that once they open the internal venues of pubs and restaurants they will still require us the wear masks until seated and keep 2 metres apart. I think the Covid Passport system will only affect international travel and it seems that most countries are looking at this so it may be something that we all have to follow until we are out of this Covid IMO

 

[Northern_Brewer]

How would it work with families? can I go in to a place resturant with my kids or are they outcasts in society too?

I in theory dont mind it for the purpose it serves but I dont like the presedence it sets.

And what precendent is that then? Your kids will get refused entry anyway if they try to go to a pub without you and they can't show a piece of paper such as a driving licence as proof that they fit the admission criteria (being over 18 in that case). It doesn't mean they're outcasts, it just means that society has decided that it's not a great idea for kids to be on their own in pubs.

 

[Covrich]

And what precendent is that then? Your kids will get refused entry anyway if they try to go to a pub without you and they can't show a piece of paper such as a driving licence as proof that they fit the admission criteria (being over 18 in that case). It doesn't mean they're outcasts, it just means that society has decided that it's not a great idea for kids to be on their own in pubs.

Are you playing devils advocate?

I obvioulsy never meant 9 year olds going and ordering pints, I meant can we go into a pub resturant..

 

[Northern_Brewer]

Are you playing devils advocate?

I obvioulsy never meant 9 year olds going and ordering pints, I meant can we go into a pub resturant..

I'm saying that there are already restrictions on which public places a 9-year-old can go to, particularly public places where alcohol is served. But people who can provide the appropriate documentation are free to go to such places.

You're saying that a vaccine passport is without precedent, I'm just saying that we already have a precedent - albeit one that hasn't applied to you since you were 18.

And as I've said upthread, you shouldn't forget the fact that unvaccinated barstaff have a right to a safe working environment - in the same way that violent drunks are a threat to them and are barred from the premises, unvaccinated customers are also a threat to the staff.

Anway, it all seems moot as far as restaurants and pubs are concerned, at least for now - but it's been a marvellous distraction from the real issues like the lack of ventilation in schools.

 

[Covrich]

I'm saying that there are already restrictions on which public places a 9-year-old can go to, particularly public places where alcohol is served. But people who can provide the appropriate documentation are free to go to such places.

You're saying that a vaccine passport is without precedent, I'm just saying that we already have a precedent - albeit one that hasn't applied to you since you were 18.

And as I've said upthread, you shouldn't forget the fact that unvaccinated barstaff have a right to a safe working environment - in the same way that violent drunks are a threat to them and are barred from the premises, unvaccinated customers are also a threat to the staff.

Anway, it all seems moot as far as restaurants and pubs are concerned, at least for now - but it's been a marvellous distraction from the real issues like the lack of ventilation in schools.

Okay that is fair enough but you are debating a point I am not making.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

Okay that is fair enough but you are debating a point I am not making.

I'm pointing out a precedent for paperwork being required before some people can go to the pub, and if they don't qualify, they aren't allowed in.

So what did you mean by "I in theory dont mind it for the purpose it serves but I dont like the presedence it sets."?