Covid-19 the second wave.

[simon12]

Brauner et al looked at what interventions had an effect - in short reducing the size of gatherings had the most effect in cutting R, followed by closing down education and face-to-face businesses, whereas forcing people to stay at home beyond that didn't have much impact.

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Thats looks about right to me. I think the tier system is flawed (partly demonstrated by this) in there are not that much differences between them. The main difference if where the rule of 6 applies or if it does and I don't believe many people follow it to the letter and instead use there own judgement of who they see or don't. The next difference seems to be purely targeted at pubs and restaurants which opened then for 8 weeks cases carried on falling, while nothing that opened and cases then increased is closed in any tier. They should have additional tiers even if they didn't plan to put anywhere in them immediately, my suggestion would be tier 4 closes gyms, tattooists, hairdressers and other things that involve close contact, tier 5 that and schools and non essential retail also close. A tier 0 where only mass gatherings are band and social distancing is advised would be nice to see a light at the end.
I also think if education is so important to stay open it should have been the 1st thing to reopen when cases should have only spread between students and there households while everyone else was still in the 1st lockdown.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

Guy in his 40's in central-ish London (who reckons he got it via his kids going to school) :

 

[Leon103]

So another lockdown from the 28th.

 

[obscure]

So another lockdown from the 28th.

I really hope your wrong, but with the way things are going I suspect tighter restrictions after Christmas at the minimum (or more likely in mid to late January when we see the inevitable rise in cases.

 

[marshbrewer]

I think he's referring to Wales, who have just announced a post Christmas lockdown.

 

[Benfleet Brewery]

I think he's referring to Wales, who have just announced a post Christmas lockdown.

Yes, in Wales.

 

[simon12]

Its worth watching this just for a different perspective from India

warning its not very optimistic.

 

[Leon103]

I really hope your wrong, but with the way things are going I suspect tighter restrictions after Christmas at the minimum (or more likely in mid to late January when we see the inevitable rise in cases.

Yeah announced at the lunchtime briefing.
Heard yesterday it was coming with talks it could last until Easter but at least until the end of January.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Boris Johnson has urged people to keep Christmas celebrations "short" and "small" to reduce the risk of spreading Covid over the festive period.

Restrictions will still be relaxed between 23 and 27 December - but the PM said people should "think hard" before meeting friends and family.
Three households will be allowed to meet - apart from in Wales where a law change will allow just two households.
And in Scotland people are being asked to only meet on one of the five days.
It comes as the UK recorded a further 25,161 coronavirus cases on Wednesday, along with 612 deaths within 28 days of a positive test.

Mr Johnson said the law was remaining the same in England but "a smaller Christmas is going to be a safer Christmas and a shorter Christmas is a safer Christmas".
Speaking at a Downing Street press conference, he said the rules allowing three households to meet over five days were "maximums, not targets to aim for". "It's always going to be safest to minimise the number of people you meet," he said.
After the news conference, the UK, Scottish and Welsh governments issued a joint statement saying this "cannot be a normal Christmas" and that they "strongly recommended people stayed at home.
They advised people who were visiting others to stop unnecessary social contact as soon as possible and for at least five days before travelling. No one should visit another household if they were ill or self-isolating, they said.
Mr Johnson also advised people to avoid travelling from "high prevalence" areas to those with lower rates of coronavirus and not to stay away from home overnight if possible.

Mr Johnson urged caution over seeing elderly or vulnerable relatives, saying that since the vaccine was being rolled out to these groups "by the early months of the new year", they would be able to meet people more safely soon.
"Whatever your plans for Christmas, please think carefully about avoiding crowds in the Boxing Day sales, and no one should be gathering in large groups to see in the new year," he added.
England's chief medical officer Prof Chris Whitty warned: "Just because you can do something doesn't mean it's sensible in any way."
"Any kind of period where people come together in groups that otherwise wouldn't meet leads to an increase in risks and that will lead to an increase in hospitalisations and deaths," he said.
He urged people to keep their Christmas celebrations small, short and local to reduce these risks.

Full article - Covid Christmas rules: Boris Johnson calls for shorter, smaller celebrations

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Millions of people in the east and south-east of England will face the toughest Covid-19 rules from Saturday, the health secretary has said.

Bedfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Berkshire and Hertfordshire will be subject to tier three rules, as will parts of Surrey, East Sussex, Cambridgeshire and Hampshire.
Swathes of the nation already in tier three will remain there.
Matt Hancock told MPs: "We've come so far, we mustn't blow it now."
Bristol and North Somerset will move from tier three to tier two, and Herefordshire will move from tier two into tier one.
The changes come into effect at 00:01 on Saturday.

It means that 68% of England's population - 38 million people - will be living in tier three from the weekend. Some 30% of the population will be in tier two, while just 2% will be in tier one.
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said he was concerned the tier system was "just not strong enough to control the virus".
"We've been seeing the numbers going in the wrong direction across the country in the last seven days in particular," he added.
Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham said he was "not surprised but very disappointed" that the region was staying in tier three, having called for some parts to be downgraded.
Greater Manchester was first placed in tier three on 23 October and has had restrictions on groups meeting indoors since July.
He told BBC Radio 4's World at One that Greater Manchester has lower infection rates than Liverpool and London had "when they were originally put into" tier two.
"It feels like if... London and the South East has rising cases, everyone stays under restrictions," he said.

Full article - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55350085

 

[CD]

I have just returned from having my first anti-covid jab, and although it was the first day the Tavistock Surgery was handling the mass vaccination, it couldn’t have gone smoother. They were getting through between 30 to 40 patients an hour I reckoned, and the only hold up was an obligatory 10 minute precautionary wait in a chair after the injection. Physically, I didn’t feel a thing.

I seriously underestimated that. It is in the local paper today that they vaccinated 975 people, with staff from three separate surgeries involved.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Chancellor Rishi Sunak has extended the furlough scheme for one month until the end of April next year.

He said the move would provide "certainty for millions of jobs and businesses".

It means the government will continue to pay up to 80% of the wages of workers who have been furloughed.

Mr Sunak also confirmed he would be extending the government-guaranteed Covid-19 business loan schemes until the end of March.

These changes come in the run-up to the next Budget, which the chancellor confirmed would take place on 3 March 2021.

The roll-out of vaccinations has provided hope for businesses struggling to get through a winter of stop-start measures to control the virus. But it is likely to be several months before enough of the population has been covered to allow for anything like business as usual.

"Our package of support for businesses and workers continues to be one of the most generous and effective in the world - helping our economy to recover and protecting livelihoods across the country," Mr Sunak said.

"We know the premium businesses place on certainty, so it is right that we enable them to plan ahead regardless of the path the virus takes, which is why we're providing certainty and clarity by extending this support."

The move drew criticism from the opposition. Shadow chancellor Anneliese Dodds said Mr Sunak had "waited until the last possible minute to act, leaving businesses in the dark with less than 24 hours before they have to issue redundancy notices".

She added: "Rishi Sunak's irresponsible, last-minute decision-making has left the UK with the worst recession of any major economy."

But CBI chief economist Rain Newton-Smith said the package would "bring some much-needed certainty and respite" for businesses.

"Stable employer contributions and an extension to the Job Retention Scheme until the end of April will mean the scheme continues to protect people's livelihoods," she added.

"And with cashflow difficulties still at the forefront of the minds of many business owners, continued access to government-backed loans through to spring will bring great comfort."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55345392

 

[Appleyard]

"Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said he was concerned the tier system was "just not strong enough to control the virus". "

I disagree with Mr Starmer. I'd say that enforcement is the biggest problem we have. Some people just won't do the right thing, and it's these who are responsible for our problems.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

"Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said he was concerned the tier system was "just not strong enough to control the virus". "

I disagree with Mr Starmer. I'd say that enforcement is the biggest problem we have. Some people just won't do the right thing, and it's these who are responsible for our problems.

I agree, lets hope the majority stick to the rules and lets hope the idiots who don't don't kill too many.

 

[Appleyard]

I agree, lets hope the majority stick to the rules and lets hope the idiots who don't don't kill too many.

Yes. The trouble is, not only do they they kill people, but also cause long-term disability, AND do us economic damage (plus then moan about lockdowns). Grr!

Edit: United Kingdom Coronavirus: 1,948,660 Cases and 66,052 Deaths - Worldometer

 

[Northern_Brewer]

Some people just won't do the right thing, and it's these who are responsible for our problems.

But they're a great way for politicians to avoid responsibility - you're seeing it already with Christmas, Johnson is saying he won't cancel the Christmas relaxation, as he trusts The Great British Public to Do The Right Thing. Then when deaths soar after some of them don't Do The Right Thing, he gets to blame the idiots.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

This is striking, the US is on course for 16,000 excess deaths in the 25-44 age group this year. Don't say it's only a problem for the elderly.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2774445https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/16/opinion/covid-deaths-young-adults.html

 

[Rodcx500z]

My view on this relaxation over Christmas, not talking small numbers here but there will be people wishing they hadn't done it, and for what a pressy a slice or 2 of turkey some sprouts and gravy, come on folks think about this long and hard

 

[Chippy_Tea]

you're seeing it already with Christmas, Johnson is saying he won't cancel the Christmas relaxation, a

They couldn't cancel Christmas as the general public would have been on the streets and they would have ignored it, better to tighten down and hope the sensible people do the right thing than have the majority do the wrong thing.

 

[Rodcx500z]

They couldn't cancel Christmas as the general public would have been on the streets and they would have ignored it, better to tighten down and hope the sensible people do the right thing than have the majority do the wrong thing.

I am in the sensible camp Chippy, i couldn't live with myself thinking i may have killed someone