Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

[Northern_Brewer]

Not sure what less efficient than charging electricity is right.

????

And major barrier of refitting service stations, some have it already much the same applies to battery charging infrastructure. The future is not clear

But 100% of hydrogen would have to come from "petrol" stations, whereas at least 70+% of electricity for EVs will be delivered by slow chargers at home/work which are rather less capex-intensive, and much of the long-distance transport of electricity is through infrastructure that is already built and paid for.

Except it looks like batteries are a long way off of being and good for HGVs

The Tesla prototypes have been trucking batteries for two years, due to go into production next year with a claimed 500-600 mile range full-laden. Given that truck drivers are legally obliged to take 45 minute breaks after 4.5 hours, the driver would need 2x45 minute breaks after driving a Tesla truck on full charge. It's an ask in terms of "mega-charging" infrastructure, and the likes of Scottish fish trucks going to Dover and beyond might need to wait for the 2nd or third generation, but for the typical London-Manchester run (around 200 miles each way) it would be fine.

 

[JockyBrewer]

Except it looks like batteries are a long way off of being and good for HGVs so petrol stations may have to stock hydrogen for them anyway. It looks likely it will cost around 3-4 times more per mile for hydrogen so it gives you a choice of wait for a charge or pay for a fast hydrogen fill. Where I think the hybrid makes sense is many people could live most of the time with a 60-80 mile battery for most of there day to day use (as long as they can charge at home) and for the 2-20 times a year they drive a very long distance they can use hydrogen, I don't know in practice what difference it would make but I think the small battery would reduce the weight so its no heavier than a 200-250 mile range battery car and would be more practical for some. Also hydrogen can be produced from methane in both polluting and non polluting ways so could make sense as a stop gap if our power grid/supply is struggling. And going into the realms of fantasy or 100 years time if we have a fusion power station making massive amounts or nearly free non-polluting energy the hydrogen inefficiency won't matter.

I'll agree that electric technology is not practical for HGVs yet, but also they're only 5% of motor vehicle traffic in the UK. Take away the other 95% of custom and existing petrol stations will cease to exist.

Perhaps instead there will be some large scale service stations for HGVs to refuel at, that will have some other form of fuel. Having said that I think that logistics companies will move to self driving vehicles before long, so perhaps they'll be less bothered about only being able to drive 120 miles before needing a couple of hours charging.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

Battery swaps to me seem the way to go - again government only has to legislate to make the 'battery box' a standard fit but ultimately Hydrogen appears to be a more flexible option unless as Simon says Fusion becomes our energy saviour.

Unlikely to happen - in the same way as happened with phone batteries, swapability comes at a price in terms of packaging etc, and as I keep saying - most people never drive more than 250 miles in a day anyway, so swapability is making their cars worse for no benefit.

Hydrogen is flexible but massively less energy efficient, which means it will always cost more in running costs. And without that advantage, it won't get the economy of scale to bring down the costs of the vehicles and the fueling infrastructure. It'll be part of the story, but no more than 10% of the fleet, probably quite a bit less.

I was told to recoup the environmental cost of building an electric car then it had to do 50K before it breaks even.

You're a victim of fake news, promoted by Aston Martin and others - not exactly an unbiased source of information. Yes EVs need time to pay back the greater up-front energy costs, but it's more like 16,000 miles rather than 48,000 miles claimed by the so-called "Astongate" report - see eg
https://innovationorigins.com/electric-auke-i-hope-that-this-is-a-wake-up-call-for-journalists/[/QUOTE]

 

[Appleyard]

Except it looks like batteries are a long way off of being and good for HGVs... ( 8< )

Lots of thoughts on this:

http://www.csrf.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/SRF-WP-UKEMS-v2.pdf

 

[MmmBeer]

as I keep saying - most people never drive more than 250 miles in a day anyway, so swapability is making their cars worse for no benefit.

Saying less than 10% of people regularly drive over 250 miles in a day, does not mean that it is not necessary. That is like assuming that because less than 10% of drivers are disabled, parking bays reserved for disabled people should be scrapped.

There is and will continue to be a need for vehicles that can travel longer distances, without inordinate charging delays, (or battery burnout from repeated rapid charging) so an alternative to battery cars will need to continue to be an option. I suspect that a large number of ageing diesel cars will be kept running for decades to come, much like in Cuba.

 

[JockyBrewer]

With a good charger you can already get 150+
miles of range in 15 minutes charge. If you’re doing long distance there’s going to be somewhere you can stop to get that, I’m certain.

 

[JockyBrewer]

I also think that cars self driving will come much faster than expected, and many people, most even, will find it cheaper to hire/hail a self driving car when required than own their own.

Waymo now has a public taxi service of self driving cars in Phoenix:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradte...mo-opens-robotaxi-ride-service-to-the-public/
There’s also services in Shenzhen and approval for one or more in San Francisco.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

I'll agree that electric technology is not practical for HGVs yet, but also they're only 5% of motor vehicle traffic in the UK. Take away the other 95% of custom and existing petrol stations will cease to exist.

As I posted up thread, freight might need 40-45% (split roughly half and half between trucks and vans) of energy demand for transport, so it's not as disastrous as sheer numbers make it look, as they do far more miles, at lower mpg, than cars.

Perhaps instead there will be some large scale service stations for HGVs to refuel at, that will have some other form of fuel.

Already exist eg at Carnforth on the M6 (fka Truckhaven).

Having said that I think that logistics companies will move to self driving vehicles before long, so perhaps they'll be less bothered about only being able to drive 120 miles before needing a couple of hours charging.

It looks like initially the Tesla truck will come in 300 and 500 mile versions, but Musk claims their target is 1000km (621 miles), and also that they plan a network of Megachargers that will provide 400 miles of range in 30 minutes.

As far as self-drive goes, I think it's fair to say that it has proven more difficult than first hyped - it'll come, but as usual it will take longer but then have more of an impact than people expect.

 

[Cwrw666]

I suspect that a large number of ageing diesel cars will be kept running for decades to come

My Land rover was built in 1981 and there's no reason it couldn't still be running in 2081, all parts being repairable/replaceable. Assuming diesel is still available, but there again there's always Tesco veg. oil.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

My Land rover was built in 1981 and there's no reason it couldn't still be running in 2081, all parts being repairable/replaceable. Assuming diesel is still available, but there again there's always Tesco veg. oil.

And heating oil

Of course i wouldn't recommend using that as it is illegal. (no duty paid i believe)

You could make your own.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

Saying less than 10% of people regularly drive over 250 miles in a day, does not mean that it is not necessary. That is like assuming that because less than 10% of drivers are disabled, parking bays reserved for disabled people should be scrapped.

Bad analogy. It's more like if all the parking bays near the shop were closed and replaced with non-reserved bays at an equal distance from the shop, but down some stairs. Would make no difference to >90% of people, they would adapt and happily use the new bays with no ill-effects, but the <10% of people who couldn't use the stairs would have to pay a quid to use the Stannah lift. It doesn't mean that all the able-bodied must pay to use the Stannah.

As I say, perhaps a better analogy is how most people use mains gas, but eg I have relatives who have not had mains gas for 50+ years, they live out in the country and have cooked with either 47kg Calor gas bottles or cooked + heated with a big (1000 litre?) LPG tank. People who have only lived in towns wouldn't conceive of their gas arriving in a tanker every couple of months, but LPG is a thing, albeit one that you would only consider if you really needed it.

There is and will continue to be a need for vehicles that can travel longer distances, without inordinate charging delays, (or battery burnout from repeated rapid charging) so an alternative to battery cars will need to continue to be an option. I suspect that a large number of ageing diesel cars will be kept running for decades to come, much like in Cuba.

That depends on what you define as "inordinate" charging delays - as I keep saying, after 250 miles you need a decent break, and even current technology can give you a useful amount of juice in 30 minutes - the only real question is the one of Bank Holiday traffic on long-distance routes. But ultimately cost tends to win out in these kinds of situations - and that's not a strong point for hydrogen. It'll be part of the mix, but a minor one for transport.

 

[simon12]

Many good points being made here, looks like I was wrong about how far behind batteries where on HGVs and it certainly looks like battery technology is the soon/now/near future solution and if hydrogen has a place in the near or even distant future is a maybe. A few things I forgot to mention about hydrogen are it can be transported over long distances through pipelines (like natural gas) much more efficiently than electricity so if it made sense it could much more easily be imported or exported over long distances. It could replace natural gas in the current gas network which is capable of transporting a huge amount more power than the electrical grid, not that this helps for cars except for transportation as home gas filling would require a pressurisation filling method which is unlikely to be practical or safe. And theres always going to be people who charging just isn't convenient and will pay 3-4 times more because they have to or just prefer to.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

And heating oil

Of course i wouldn't recommend using that as it is illegal. (no duty paid i believe)

Would that mean that discussing it falls into the same category as distilling on this forum?

 

[Northern_Brewer]

A few things I forgot to mention about hydrogen are it can be transported over long distances through pipelines (like natural gas) much more efficiently than electricity so if it made sense it could much more easily be imported or exported over long distances.

True - although it's easy to overstate them. High-voltage transmission is pretty efficient, in the UK the losses are <2% for transmission, but then you lose around 5-8% in the low-voltage network. but you have to consider the full cycle from generation to the wheel, and the 90% efficiency of electric motors is double what you get from hydrogen, aside from your energy losses when making the hydrogen.

It could replace natural gas in the current gas network which is capable of transporting a huge amount more power than the electrical grid, not that this helps for cars except for transportation as home gas filling would require a pressurisation filling method which is unlikely to be practical or safe.

Heating is the one where hydrogen could make a big difference, and is more up for grabs whether the future looks like "burning" hydrogen or electricity powering heat pumps etc. It needs some Big Decisions about the future of the gas network - you can blend in 20% hydrogen to existing gas networks without much effect, but beyond that you need changes to end-user equipment.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Would that mean that discussing it falls into the same category as distilling on this forum?

I guess discussing how to make heating oil specifically to use in your car to avoid paying fuel duty would be against the rules.

 

[dad_of_jon]

It will.

BTW i am not a tree hugging diesel/petrol car hater i run an old diesel as that was the in thing to buy when i bought it i will be driving it for another year and a half or so then i will have to make a big decision to either buy the Vitara (mild) Hybrid that is currently at the top of my list or go for a second hand EV.


One of my favourite car reviewers.

Suzuki Vitara Hybrid In-Depth Review - The Spacious Family SUV You Need?

I love my 2019 non-hybrid Vitara. I did the maths re the 10% fuel economy benefit vs extra purchase price for the new version. I wouldn't get the cash back over my ownership of the vehicle. if however you drove about 12k p.a. then YMMV. My 1st year service on the Vitara came to £151. My New Vitara was 18K and over a year I get 42mpg+. I think cars which are designed from the outset to be hybrids will be more efficient yet I can't help think about the sourcing of materials for the batteries.

History has shown that the first generation of innovation hasn't been concerned with other factors. Only after the initial acceptance of a new technology does the real effort into improving the peripheral issues take place. - Lead in petrol and CFC's for example. Ideally you'd want to swap from an optimised old energy source to an optimised new energy source. Unfortunately the early adopters will not be doing that. Cobalt mining or Australian hydrogen spring to mind. Australian hydrogen is produced by fossil fuel, yet could be solar powered - at least in AUS.

In all of this it would seem to make sense at least to my to choose the lightest vehicle possible because the greater the mass required the more energy required to move it. So whilst I drool over certain makes of cars their lardiness make them an anathema to me.

The Vitara is not 'spacious' but is is one of the biggest small suv's

I'm sorted ATM to see which way the wind is blowing. I may already have the last ICE cars or even cars full stop I'll ever own.

 

[MmmBeer]

Bad analogy. It's more like if all the parking bays near the shop were closed and replaced with non-reserved bays at an equal distance from the shop, but down some stairs. Would make no difference to >90% of people, they would adapt and happily use the new bays with no ill-effects, but the <10% of people who couldn't use the stairs would have to pay a quid to use the Stannah lift. It doesn't mean that all the able-bodied must pay to use the Stannah.

As I say, perhaps a better analogy is how most people use mains gas, but eg I have relatives who have not had mains gas for 50+ years, they live out in the country and have cooked with either 47kg Calor gas bottles or cooked + heated with a big (1000 litre?) LPG tank. People who have only lived in towns wouldn't conceive of their gas arriving in a tanker every couple of months, but LPG is a thing, albeit one that you would only consider if you really needed it.

Not sure what point you are trying to make here. My comments were intentially flippant, to illustrate the arrogance of the suggestion that because not many vehicles travel over 200 or 250 miles in a day, none should be permitted to do so without sitting stationary for hours on end, or cooking the batteries.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

Not sure what point you are trying to make here. My comments were intentially flippant, to illustrate the arrogance of the suggestion that because not many vehicles travel over 200 or 250 miles in a day, none should be permitted to do so without sitting stationary for hours on end, or cooking the batteries.

And just where has anybody suggested we're going to end up at 100% batteries? Certainly not me - but I do think we will end up with the vast majority of cars being EVs with hydrogen very much in the minority, for the reasons discussed above.

 

[MmmBeer]

Agreed, a mixture of technologies will be needed for different requirements. I am just fearful that by 2030 many many many requirements will remain unfulfilled. Petrol / diesel could be the answer, as technology / infrastructure is in place until suitable alternatives are available.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

. I think cars which are designed from the outset to be hybrids will be more efficient yet I can't help think about the sourcing of materials for the batteries.

The battery is quite small and system only helps the engine when setting off and heavy acceleration by using the alternator as an electric motor, the battery is charged under braking.
Suzuki have stopped using the 1.0l three cylinder engine which I find strange as it was in more than one model so now your only option is the 1.4l mild hybrid.