Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

[marshbrewer]

So this thread has peeked my interest. My current car is a Skoda Octavia Technology (1.6TDI), chosen for its tax efficiency and suitablity as a family car. There are zero electric cars in the same band as this in our company car scheme (fairly mainstream, run by Alphabet) that are in any way comparable in terms of space. However, I dropped down a couple of bands to save on tax and get a small extra payment from my employers, so if I forfeited that and returned to my graded band I could get...... zero electric cars with similar space. There is an electric Beamer that appears to have the space of a super mini, but that's it.

I've done some research, and to get the same kind of package in terms of practicability and space with cash money, it would probably be a Kia E-Niro. This might explain the lack of company car options, as the Kia is £36,495 and the Octavia Technology (depending on model) is around £18 -£24k. So the running costs and residual value would have to be exceptional on the Kia to get anywhere near a comparable lease price; I suspect they aren't.

However, its not all doom and gloom. the Kia's range is good, and I if I went to the 1.0 hybrid petrol Octavia it would be more like £24k, so factor in the grant for the Kia and its getting there, but not quite yet. Interesting stuff.

 

[yrhendystu]

Ideally we need a system where you can pull into a garage and quickly remove the battery and swap it for a fully charged one. Like how a calor gas refill works.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

I've done some research, and to get the same kind of package in terms of practicability and space with cash money, it would probably be a Kia E-Niro. This might explain the lack of company car options, as the Kia is £36,495 and the Octavia Technology (depending on model) is around £18 -£24k. So the running costs and residual value would have to be exceptional on the Kia to get anywhere near a comparable lease price; I suspect they aren't.

I have been doing the same for a while and the KIA gets brilliant reviews in fact i believe there is a bit of awaiting list.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

I have always liked the KONA.

Although Hyundai is not the parent company to Kia Motors, there is some truth to the matter. Hyundai and Kia are both headquartered in South Korea, and Hyundai owns 33.8% of Kia Motors. ... When Hyundai made its first major purchase of Kia Motors stock in 1998, they acquired 51% of the company.

 

[Cwrw666]

Ideally we need a system where you can pull into a garage and quickly remove the battery and swap it for a fully charged one. Like how a calor gas refill works.

I watched a video on youtube the other day reviewing a Chinese carmaker that is doing exactly this. Apparently they have battery changing stations all over China. You can charge at home like normal but if you're on a long trip you have an app that directs you to a station that isn't too busy. 5 minutes to change the battery (by a robotic system if I remember correctly) and away you go.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

I watched a video on youtube the other day reviewing a Chinese carmaker that is doing exactly this

I posted this a few pages ago it looks like a great solution.

 

[Cwrw666]

I would guess it would work in China as a single manufacturer has a huge market. Over here it would need a load of different firms to all use the same battery pack to justify the infrastructure. Can't see that working.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

An electric battery "gigafactory" which had been planned for Wales will instead be built in the north of England.

Britishvolt signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the Welsh Government in July to build the plant in St Athan, Vale of Glamorgan.

However, the 3,000-job factory will be built in Blyth, Northumberland, after Britishvolt said it would not invest in Wales earlier this month.

The Welsh Government said the news was disappointing.

It also comes just days after a decision from Ineos that it will build its 4x4 vehicle in France, rather than Bridgend, just 13 miles away from St Athan.

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The plant will provide 3,000 skilled jobs and 5,000 more supplying it, and will make batteries for electric vehicles.

The St Athan site had been earmarked due to its proximity to the Aston Martin plant, its programme for the Rapide E - an electric-only vehicle - has been delayed.

Britishvolt's chief executive, Orral Nadjar, said: "This is a tremendous moment both for Britishvolt and UK industry.

"Blyth meets all of our exacting requirements and could be tailor made.

"It is on the doorstep of major transport links, easily accessible renewable energy and the opportunity for a co-located supply chain, meets our target to make our gigaplant the world's cleanest and greenest battery facility."

The Welsh Government said it was disappointed but hoped there would still be potential for a joint-venture in the future.

It said: "We have been working closely with Britishvolt for several months to explore and assist their plans for the establishment of a gigaplant at Bro Tathan.

"Given the ambitious timescales that the company is working to, it has been mutually agreed that Bro Tathan will not be the site of Britishvolt's first gigaplant."

 

[Appleyard]

I posted this a few pages ago it looks like a great solution.

Oi! They've pinched my idea! Also, though, I thought that cars should have multiple batteries, so that range, power and cost could be different for various models (possibly including lorries).

To be fair, I think many people have had similar ideas. It depends on standardisation, really.

Would it replace filling stations? Instead of "Oh, 6 gallons of 4*, please" (which changed to "OK dear I'll get out and put some fuel in", it would be "2 batteries, please", or "I'll go and stick my card in the robot, dear". HOWEVER, battery range is currently adequate for most people on most days, so I'd guess it would be rather an occasional thing.

Still. "Economies of scale", and all that sort of thing would be good.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

According to the Bloomberg tracker, the US$ price of a battery pack (ie cell+module+pack) has dropped 89% since 2010 (obviously doesn't look quite so good in sterling terms thanks to the Brexit hit to sterling, but still impressive) :

 

[Justin Dean]

Not a question of imagination, one can calculate it, as you'd know if you'd read post #137.



And what knowledge of the battery market do you have to offer such profound insight? In fact the price of batteries has been dropping around 10% per year over the last decade, as technology improves. And modern batteries outlast the car.

And as I mentioned above, the high residuals mean that leasing an electric car can be a really good deal - I mentioned above a relative who was leasing an original Leaf for £200/month, the same as they'd been paying for petrol.

If lithium is a finite resource and batteries need lithium then as the resource goes down the price goes up.. supply and demand

 

[Justin Dean]

The country first charging service station is near where i live. Between Chelmsford and Braintree. Designed to have a pit stop with meeting lounges, wh smith costa etc. Pretty grim. I think my next car will be electric but I am really unsure about the praticality, alright day to day but not up to scratch on the exceptional days. Plug in hybrid might be better option

 

[Appleyard]

I think my next car will be electric but I am really unsure about the praticality, alright day to day but not up to scratch on the exceptional days. Plug in hybrid might be better option

Best get that before y2030 then! They won't be available then either, AFAIK.

 

[BarnBrian]

One thing that may be of interest. My electricity supplier, Ecotricity, has a Home/EV tariff. Our home is all electric, air source heat pump for heating, so am saving a heaps on home power as well as running my Leaf.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

If lithium is a finite resource and batteries need lithium then as the resource goes down the price goes up.. supply and demand

It's more complicated than that - we're still at the stage where lithium is not a particular constraint. Also it's not that big a proportion of the cost of a battery pack (see Ciez & Whiteacre 2016) in the same way that barley prices could double and it wouldn't make a big difference to the price of beer. And we're still at the stage of benefiting from economies of scale and technology improvements in the stages where lithium is turned into finished batteries.

There's some concern in the industry that falling lithium prices will discourage the investment that's needed, we'll probably get a bit of a price squeeze in 2023 or so - but that's typical of resource projects, they have lead times of several years, so you get these cycles of boom and bust.

The country first charging service station is near where i live. Between Chelmsford and Braintree. Designed to have a pit stop with meeting lounges, wh smith costa etc. Pretty grim.

Because petrol stations are famously nice places to hang out...

 

[Appleyard]

One thing that may be of interest. My electricity supplier, Ecotricity, has a Home/EV tariff. Our home is all electric, air source heat pump for heating, so am saving a heaps on home power as well as running my Leaf.

That is of interest. Perhaps it ought to have a separate thread? Still, I'll ask: what is your experience with the ASHP, including installation, running, comparative costs (if they're answerable questions)?

 

[BarnBrian]

That is of interest. Perhaps it ought to have a separate thread? Still, I'll ask: what is your experience with the ASHP, including installation, running, comparative costs (if they're answerable questions)?

Used to have a UK made unit that was not great and the company went under. Now have a Nibe unit which is brilliant, quiet and efficient. Installed ASHP when we moved into the house so nothing to compare to.
If you're in the North West I can recommend Abacus heating in Liverpool.

 

[Appleyard]

Used to have a UK made unit that was not great and the company went under. Now have a Nibe unit which is brilliant, quiet and efficient. Installed ASHP when we moved into the house so nothing to compare to.
If you're in the North West I can recommend Abacus heating in Liverpool.

Hm, is it £,£££ or ££,£££? What are your observations about winter? I am interested in these things.

 

[BarnBrian]

Hm, is it £,£££ or ££,£££? What are your observations about winter? I am interested in these things.

PM me and I'll send you as much info as I can.

 

[dad_of_jon]

So we have a 2017 Suzuki swift sport and a 2019 Suzuki vitara - they will be good for 10 years+ during which time I'll be able to see which way the wind is truly blowing. I think at present ev's / hybrids are overly expensive ( thats why I bagged a vitara before the non-hybrids went out of stock. ) the 10% ish improved fuel economy benefit is dwarfed by the extra cost of the hybrid model and so would need 10 years or so to break even. I can jump to the new tech at any point over the next 10 years if it becomes compelling, however I only drive around 8000 miles p.a. these days compared to 12000 previously and I see my milage decreasing as time goes on so we'll probably move from 2 cars to 1 once we fully retire. In 10 years there may be autonomous vehicles and whilst I enjoy driving I do realize my abilities will decline in the future. That may be a trigger point to purchase another vehicle, to retain independence from public transport. Better my own personal transport pod than the petri dishes on wheels be it rail or road a.k.a - buses and trains.

So banning ICE by 2030 is a bit of a woolly situation at present. Just another soundbite IMO. - More worrying was the EU intention to limit cars to 111mph and to not be allowed to disable speed/safety systems in the near future. There are a few new cars that are limited to 111mph on sale now. So the Germans will not be very happy about that. The ruling classes do not really like us plebs having personal transport, by the time they have achieved their goals i'm not going to be around