The Coronavirus thread.

[MyQul]

And mushy peas n sprouts.

Mushy peas

Dont mind sprouts. But mostly spuds. The humble spud is amazing. It's almost a complete food. Has a complete protein (although not much). Anti-inflammatory compounds. The highest on the satiety scale. You can live on nothing but spuds for extended periods of time. The list goes on!

 

[Chippy_Tea]

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Retailers can open from Monday as long as they follow the covid secure guidelines, they must do a risk assessment and they will get a notice to display saying they have done so and they will be checked by the local authorities.

 

[trueblue]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52993734This is interesting, we are now doing tests and quarantining people coming into the UK but it looks like it was closing the door after the horse has bolted. 20,000 people arriving from Spain per day in March! As least the lockdown seems to have done it's job just wish we acted quicker.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

20,000 people arriving from Spain per day in March!

Just to put that in context, New Zealand averages 18,800 per day on international flights from the whole world (and obviously has negligible numbers coming by boat and none by Channel Tunnel).

(govt.nz says 13.728m intl air arrivals and departures in 2018, assume in=out as a first approximation)

 

[Cheshire Cat]

245 Deaths last 24 hours it's not low enough to be relaxing the lockdown. I think the **** will hit the fan.

 

[trueblue]

Just to put that in context, New Zealand averages 18,800 per day on international flights from the whole world (and obviously has negligible numbers coming by boat and none by Channel Tunnel).

(govt.nz says 13.728m intl air arrivals and departures in 2018, assume in=out as a first approximation)

But knowing what was happening in those European countries should we have been more vigilant.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

But knowing what was happening in those European countries should we have been more vigilant.

Easy words to say - but what do you mean in practice? We didn't have enough testing capacity for people with symptoms back then (and from memory the test was only approved on something like 18 March??) so you can't be "vigilant" by testing.

And you're surely not suggesting that we quarantine everybody who travels between the UK and Europe?

About the only practical thing one could do would be to take the temperature of everyone getting on a boat or plane to Europe and quarantine those who are feverish - but that only catches around 25% of infectivity as the pre-symptomatic phase is when most infections happen.

25% of infectees on one source of infection is better than nothing, but it's not a game-changer.

@CC - don't look at deaths, they're a lagging indicator. Look at hospitalisations or new infections instead.

 

[trueblue]

If the temperature alone might have caught 25% that may have prevented some of those deaths. Knowing where the virus was a problem surely anyone come from those areas could have been vetted to some degree. Now one of the former scientist claims if we had locked down a week earlier it may have halved the fatalites. I know this is all in hindsight but we did have a good opportunity to see what was going on in other European countries.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52995064

 

[Chippy_Tea]

245 Deaths last 24 hours it's not low enough to be relaxing the lockdown. I think the s**t will hit the fan.

I don't see the problem with slowly coming out of lockdown if people keep their distance which we have proved we can in the supermarkets etc so shops should be fine its pubs that i think will be the problem.

 

[Cheshire Cat]

CC - don't look at deaths, they're a lagging indicator. Look at hospitalisations or new infections instead.


Try telling a relative of one of those deaths it's a lagging indicator. Get real man. It's the tip of a pyramid build on sand. It show that the leading indicators were either never understood or ignored.

 

[An Ankoù]

No. Unless the Scottish are a race not a nation. Possibly xenophobic but not racist

I understand the Scots are a race, together with the Picts. What that may mean today, I have no idea.

 

[kelper]

@CC - don't look at deaths, they're a lagging indicator. Look at hospitalisations or new infections instead.

Deaths are a more reliable figure to track since diagnosis is 100% accurate.

 

[MyQul]

I understand the Scots are a race, together with the Picts. What that may mean today, I have no idea.

No the Scots aren't a race. They are a nation and a culture

From wikipedia

The Scottish people (Scots: Scots Fowk; Scottish Gaelic: Albannaich, Old English: Scottas) or Scots, are a nation and ethnic group native to Scotland.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott...people (Scots: Scots,Alba) in the 9th century.


It's common to see the terms "race" and "ethnicity" used interchangeably, but, generally speaking, the meanings are distinct. Race is usually seen as biological, referring to the physical characteristics of a person, while ethnicity is viewed as a social science construct that describes a person's cultural identity.30 Jan 2020

https://www.thoughtco.com/difference-between-race-and-ethnicity-2834950#:~:text=It%27s%20common%20to%20see%20the,describes%20a%20person%27s%20cultural%20identity.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

If the temperature alone might have caught 25% that may have prevented some of those deaths.

As I acknowledged.

Knowing where the virus was a problem surely anyone come from those areas could have been vetted to some degree.

Again "vetted to some degree" is easy to say - but what do you mean by it?

What would be your criteria for choosing which countries/travel routes to apply it to?
How would you filter people within that category?
What would you do with the people who were "positive" on the filter?

Remember - we had no/not-enough testing capacity at the time, temperature was about our only "test". And my memory is that the problems in Spain didn't really become apparent until quite a way into the crisis, compared to Italy where it was very concentrated and very obvious that they had a problem.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

Try telling a relative of one of those deaths it's a lagging indicator. Get real man.

I am real thank you very much. You were talking about criteria for relaxing the lockdown. Lockdown affects the rate of infection, but has no effect on whether infection progresses to death. Therefore if you're looking at when to relax the lockdown then infection/hospitalisation rates are the more relevant.

Each death is an individual tragedy, but there are more relevant things to monitor when it comes to changing lockdown.

 

[trueblue]

As I acknowledged.



Again "vetted to some degree" is easy to say - but what do you mean by it?

What would be your criteria for choosing which countries/travel routes to apply it to?
How would you filter people within that category?
What would you do with the people who were "positive" on the filter?

Remember - we had no/not-enough testing capacity at the time, temperature was about our only "test". And my memory is that the problems in Spain didn't really become apparent until quite a way into the crisis, compared to Italy where it was very concentrated and very obvious that they had a problem.

I would have thought restricting flights from certain counties, other countries did this, would have been a start. We seemed just left everything to late.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

I would have thought restricting flights from certain counties, other countries did this, would have been a start. We seemed just left everything to late.

Actually we were pretty much in lock-step with other European countries wrt flight restrictions - BA, Virgin, Air France all stopped flights to China within a day or two of each other at the beginning of January, and we stopped all external flights at the same time as the EU in mid-March, when we'd had 104 deaths.

You could argue that the Atlantic countries in general were slow to respond compared to countries on the Pacific, who had had more practice with SARS etc.

The two specific things that you could argue the UK was behind the curve on was introducing a lock-down about a week after the main lot of European countries, and in testing capacity in general.

 

[Covrich]

I am real thank you very much. You were talking about criteria for relaxing the lockdown. Lockdown affects the rate of infection, but has no effect on whether infection progresses to death. Therefore if you're looking at when to relax the lockdown then infection/hospitalisation rates are the more relevant.

Each death is an individual tragedy, but there are more relevant things to monitor when it comes to changing lockdown.

I think the strawman argument taken against you there was poor form!!!

Nobody is saying any single death isn't a tragedy, however the data needed to analyse on a day to day or week by week basis of trend needs to be current and not distored by longer data bought in. to ease lockdown.

I do personally believe easing lockdown sensibly is something we need to do when it is right and use the correct data to do so.


Ultimatley I think if the world stayed in a heavy lockdown for months upon months millions would be put into poverty and millions more would die considerably more so than covid19...... thier deaths would be a tradegy too.

I know it doesn't suit a lot of peoples narrative but a lot of people who dare utter the word "economy" are not always talking about when they can get a new TV...

I am not saying I want to go and start kissing every stranger in the street , no but how we can sesibly look to move forward and strike the baalnce keep the deaths down from covid or by proxy of covid.

 

[MyQul]

Marmite can only produce small jars due to the coronavirus pandemic, a company tweet has suggested.

The spread, made with yeast extract, is now only being produced in a 250g size jar as a result of brewers’ yeast being more difficult to get hold of, a message sent on the company’s official account said on Wednesday.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-hit-by-covid-19-beer-brewing-slowdown-yeast