The Coronavirus thread.

[Druncan]

Islanders bristle at idea of being used as UK test site to end lockdown.. Really worried about travel rule relaxation following the above idea. Islands still seem to be an acceptable 'guinea pigs' to Gove. Yeah, and here we have basic medical facilities, elderly population, care home, transport limited by weather and usually electricity. But at least I got two tins of chopped tomatoes yesterday. Smoking Chilli tonight! Our landline is off currently and no hope of repair, so don't call me. Perfect little meek covy cavys Rus,,,,

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Reported earlier on 5 live that you are 4 x more likely to die from covid if you are from EM's.

 

[MyQul]

Reported earlier on 5 live that you are 4 x more likely to die from covid if you are from EM's.

I think there's more than the Vit D reason for this. One reason may be that EM's on the whole live in more densely crowded population areas. E.g. Comparing where I live (Southwark ) to where I work (Kingston upon Thames). Population density is much higher in Southwark than Kingston and there are far higher numbers of EM's in Southwark than Kingston. So my guess it's not just one reason but a combination

 

[MyQul]

Islanders bristle at idea of being used as UK test site to end lockdown.. Really worried about travel rule relaxation following the above idea. Islands still seem to be an acceptable 'guinea pigs' to Gove. Yeah, and here we have basic medical facilities, elderly population, care home, transport limited by weather and usually electricity. But at least I got two tins of chopped tomatoes yesterday. Smoking Chilli tonight! Our landline is off currently and no hope of repair, so don't call me. Perfect little meek covy cavys Rus,,,,

You could all flat out refuse to co-operate. How would the Government enforce relaxing lock down for example if everyone just decided to continue to self isolate. It'd be relatively easy for everyone to agree to do this considering your small populations

 

[dad_of_jon]

Maybe but there are A LOT of people about including lots of people relaxing on London's green spaces. They defiantly wern't stocking up

I love it when defiantly sneaks in a post with definitely. We ARE NOT NEVER EVER going to stock up.

 

[MyQul]

I love it when defiantly sneaks in a post with definitely. We ARE NOT NEVER EVER going to stock up.

Bleedin' refuseniks!

 

[Chippy_Tea]

I think there's more than the Vit D reason for this. One reason may be that EM's on the whole live in more densely crowded population areas. E.g. Comparing where I live (Southwark ) to where I work (Kingston upon Thames). Population density is much higher in Southwark than Kingston and there are far higher numbers of EM's in Southwark than Kingston. So my guess it's not just one reason but a combination

I think you are right as I said in an earlier post there will be millions of white skinned people deficient in vitamin D especially now when many will not have been out in the sun due to lockdown it cannot just be a lack vitamin D but a lack probably doesn't help.

 

[Druncan]

@MyQul we could also defiantly refuse access! and hands off my toms. However I do have 25kg of Crafty Malters Lucky's malt stockpiled to make plenty Lager/Pils to me give me hope for the future,,, (any good BIAB recipe's welcome?)

 

[Chippy_Tea]

You could all flat out refuse to co-operate. How would the Government enforce relaxing lock down for example if everyone just decided to continue to self isolate. It'd be relatively easy for everyone to agree to do this considering your small populations

I don't think many people will continue isolating if they are not forced to I also think people are so fed up with lockdown they would happily risk sitting in a crowded plane if it meant a cheap holiday and some sun and beer.

 

[MyQul]

I don't think many people will continue isolating if they are not forced to I also think people are so fed up with lockdown they would happily risk sitting in a crowded plane if it meant a cheap holiday and some sun and beer.

I think it may be different on some of these small scottish Islands with a more tight knit community. In most places (especially cities) you'er fairly anonymous but I'm sure everyone knows every one else on a small island. So if most people decided to continue to self isolate and some decided not to everyone would know who. I bet then they'd have to self isolate anyway because no-one would want to know them

 

[MyQul]

@MyQul we could also defiantly refuse access! and hands off my toms. However I do have 25kg of Crafty Malters Lucky's malt stockpiled to make plenty Lager/Pils to me give me hope for the future,,, (any good BIAB recipe's welcome?)

25kg? That's not a stock pile. That's two weeks drinking for some of out forumites

 

[Drunkula]

Tbh, I dont know a lot about this but dont the weaker versions die off and the stronger ones survive - i.e. darwinism?

Maybe not in the way some would think. If a virus kills people quickly then that'll actually push down the R value because they won't be having as much contact, so the number of infections will become less. A basic way of thinking about evolution is how many babies can you have and how many can survive. So killing 'too fast' puts the selection pressure against itself, similarly if it's too easy for our immune system to beat.

Mutations are bad because vaccines are based on targetting strains. The flu vaccine for a year is a cocktail that'll target a few strains based on mapping where strains are expected to be - so it's a best guess, but still the best thing available. So genetic drift means the vaccine might not work by the time it's mass produced. It really is a better the devil you know situation.

 

[Martin Goodrich]

I don't see whats not to understand. If say a white person due to winter then going straight into lockdown is at 50% (totally made up no t make the point) there normal vit d levels this is maybe around the maximum levels a black person would have so they could be now at 20%. In all circumstances the darker your skin the lower vit d levels are.

I'm not certain that Vitamin C has any baring on the issue. It's more likely that genetic factors play a bigger part.

 

[Drunkula]

I'm not certain that Vitamin C has any baring on the issue. It's more likely that genetic factors play a bigger part.

Have you watched any of John Campbell's videos in this thread?

 

[Leon103]

Yes I think thats a bit of a scaremongering article from the title , all virii mutaes and COVID is a slow mutater and often the mutation will leave very close pattern.

IF this virus is not going away for the time being I dont expect life to be as it was in January and I dont expect all barriers lifted monday.. BUT staying indoors until september isn;t going to make a lot of difference.

I am pinning my hopes more on we find a way to coexist in that we find better medicines to block suppress and treat whilst we build up better immunity to it and deal with it more seasonally ect. A Vaccine however would be great.

The one thing about I dont get and im not baiting here this is a genuine question the notion schools should remain closed until september not even saying I disagree but people feirce about that.. what the their thinking behind it.. do theyu think its going to be all okay by then? are they pinning hopes the virus has gone or we have better control of medicine? not playing devils advocate here I just wonder

Regarding schools, I think it could have a big impact on a second peak. With schools there is a lot of travel and a lot of people mixing. All exams etc have been wiped out so schools are pretty much pointless.

 

[Covrich]

Regarding schools, I think it could have a big impact on a second peak. With schools there is a lot of travel and a lot of people mixing. All exams etc have been wiped out so schools are pretty much pointless.

I get that, but are we thinking a second peak is less likley on September? (genuine question) also schools are keeping a lot of parents away from work and messing up a lot of routine for kids and both then and their parents mental health I woudln;t write off as completely pointlespersonally at least for younger kids.

 

[Leon103]

I get that, but are we thinking a second peak is less likley on September? (genuine question) also schools are keeping a lot of parents away from work and messing up a lot of routine for kids and both then and their parents mental health I woudln;t write off as completely pointlespersonally at least for younger kids.

My thoughts were we are going to get a rise when Lock down is removed, not sending kids to school will mean it isn't as bad as if it all went back to normal.
There is an argument that school contributes to mental health so swings and roundabouts.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

I hope there listening to scientists and not big business or the public. As for restaurants, gyms and pubs I will be very surprised if they give any indication of dates for reopening, though many other countries have.

All decisions have to balance health with the effect on the economy - we do it all the time with NICE, who regard treatments costing <£20k per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) as cost-effective for the NHS, with the value-for-money tapering off above that depending on various factors.

To take one extreme - would it be practical to close down the entire economy for 30 years to reduce deaths from traffic accidents?

Pubs are going to be the tough one, although I can sort of see a route that involves beer gardens only, table service and/or app ordering rather than going to be bar, and wearing masks to go to the toilet. But missing Easter and bank holidays alone will be a big hit for pubs, let alone the summer events, and being 50% open (with 100% of the costs) is going to be less economic than being closed.

Schools should remain closed.
They are the PERFECT spreading ground for the virus

And what are your qualifications as an epidemiologist?

Because school closures are something that most serious epidemiologists regard as pretty debatable - partly because of the second order consequences, kids don't just go off school and stay isolated in their bedrooms at home, they still go out to play/hang out on street corners/snog their girlfriends etc. And then there's the effect on key workers having to stay off work to look after their kids and so on.

Also although it's still early days, children appear to be not particularly susceptible/transmissible for this particular virus. One of the British kids who got it in the very early days failed to transmit it to any of his 72 contacts, including his two siblings. The data is not conclusive, but eg this study in Science estimated that in general children transmit at a third of the rate of adults. That's not insignificant of course, but is a factor to balance against the other effects of opening schools.

Tbh, I dont know a lot about this but dont the weaker versions die off and the stronger ones survive - i.e. darwinism?

Drunkula beat me to it - but a virus doesn't want to kill its host, or make the host so ill that they stay in bed away from friends and workmates. An ideal virus causes a bit of a cold - lots of sniffles to spread fomites around the environment, but something that people will "power through" in the company of other potential hosts. Killing your host is terrible news for a virus, it can't spread in a coffin.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

This could cause some concern.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05...train-mutation-hits-vaccine-research/12218834

As that article says :
Professor Bill Hanage from Harvard is another expert in the field. He has doubts about the new strain being more contagious. "This is undoubtedly a complicated issue, and one we will learn more about," he said.

"But right now there are better ways of fighting the pandemic than worrying about different strains"

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Lancs Road Police
@LancsRoadPolice

Very irate driver stopped in Eccleston due to no insurance. Believes police should be letting people off! That doesn’t however work, when you haven’t had insurance since the beginning of March. #T3TacOps #MN11 #Thelawisstillthelaw!!!