The Coronavirus thread.

[Brianbrewed]

Is that an estimate? The Scottish chief medical officer said on the radio last week that the government estimate that 50-80% of the population will get it. 4% will need hospitalisation and 1% will die.

That's what current models are suggesting.
If those death rates are correct that would be 20,000 in the Republic of Ireland.

The Irish gov have also raised Sick Pay allowance and reduced the time to access it to encourage people to self-isolate.
Self-employed people will also be able to access it.
These measures are extraordianary considering the current gov is centre-right/conservative.

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2020/0309/1121216-sick-pay-emergency-legislation/

 

[kelper]

No new cases in China outside Hubei province. so it can be contained. If China's numbers stay below 100,000 which now seems likely, why would Scotland with it's lower population density have 80% affected?

Chief Medical Officer Dr Catherine Calderwood said between 50% and 80% of the population "MAY" become infected by the virus with a “peak” expected in two or three months time.

Dr Calderwood said that based on the experience in China, where the virus originated, up to 4% of the Scottish population could become ill enough to need hospital treatment.

That percentage translates to between 200,000 and 250,000 people. The figure, however, comes with caveats. It is very much a worst-case scenario and is based on modelling coming out of China which has a different population and healthcare system to Scotland.

We need to keep a sense of proportion here!

 

[Northern_Brewer]

A doctor here has been stood down, returned from America with what he thought was a mild cold. Has been treating patients, and patients at a elderly nursing home.
Now my thought is, if a doctor thought he just had a mild cold, there could be millions walking around thinking the same thing. Food for thought.

Works both ways - if it implies that the current deaths are the only ones from a much bigger pool of people infected, then it's less lethal than thought. Me and the missus have been half wondering what we've got at the moment - it's been a nasty cold, enough to have a bit of a lie-down mid-afternoon at the weekend - but none of the flu-y muscle aches and real knock you down for days thing. I got it first but the only high-risk stuff I've done is take an intercity train some time before it started, and go to the gym occasionally. So where do you draw the line on symptoms that are bad enough to isolate?

No new cases in China outside Hubei province. so it can be contained. If China's numbers stay below 100,000 which now seems likely, why would Scotland with it's lower population density have 80% affected?

Most of Scotland's population is pretty densely packed, your neck of the woods is very much the exception - and the elderly who are most at risk tend to end up packed into nursing homes etc. And you have to take anything out of China with a slight pinch of salt - there's a lot of political pressure involved, particularly given the ruthlessness of their shutdown. When the deputy leader visited Wuhan last week to "prove" the effectiveness of the quarantine, the residents were shouting “It’s fake, it’s fake!”. I wouldn't say anything for certain until we have better numbers from a variety of sources.

 

[The Baron]

On the positive side of self isolation think of the brewing time and stocks you can build up

 

[Cwrw666]

Now my thought is, if a doctor thought he just had a mild cold, there could be millions walking around thinking the same thing. Food for thought.

Apparently not - they're doing random tests on samples from doctors surgeries and other places where people show cold/flu symptoms and so far they're proving negative.

 

[Mr_S_Jerusalem]

On the positive side of self isolation think of the brewing time and stocks you can build up

Excellent point here though, maybe it's time to buy more demijohns and forget about the bog roll...

 

[The Baron]

Only 2 Demijohns per customer at Asda

 

[Rodcx500z]

I love the term public operators use, the well being of our customers and staff is our top proriety this = we have no clue and don't give a *****, most relevant to the travel industry

 

[Dutto]

Quite so, and you could use it instead of pastis to improve your glass of Harp lager. Similarly, while we still have plenty of bum fodder, if rolls were to run out, what's wrong with boxes of kleenex? Same stuff isn't it!

Not according to Sewage Farms! It clogs up the system - or at least it did back in the 1970’s when we last had a big-roll shortage!

On the other hand, there is nothing finer for cleaning out the bog than the Daily Mail!

 

[An Ankoù]

On the other hand, there is nothing finer for cleaning out the bog than the Daily Mail!

If only it came ready-perforated.

 

[Dutto]

Apparently Mr Trump is fit and well after associating with Republicans who have “self isolated”!

Where’s a decent disease when you need one eh?

 

[Northern_Brewer]

According to a team from Johns Hopkins it takes 5 days for symptoms to show.

 

[simon12]

On the positive side of self isolation think of the brewing time and stocks you can build up

I was thinking the opposite I only have 16 firkins and 6 kegs to last if forced to isolate.

 

[simon12]

Just to give you all the up to date numbers the overall death rate is 3.4% but in Italy has hit 5% while in South Korea is only 0.7% so how the government thinks the UK will be 1% I have no idea as I would have thought we would be more like Italy than South Korea.

 

[An Ankoù]

 

[simon12]

Latest UK numbers 373 cases 6 deaths.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

No new cases in China outside Hubei province. so it can be contained.

I am not sure we should believe the figures coming out of China.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

The number of coronavirus cases in the UK has now reached 373, a rise of 54 on Monday's figure.

It comes as a man in his early 80s became the sixth person to die in the UK with the virus.

Meanwhile, a number of airlines have cut thousands of flights, including to and from Italy, following the outbreak.

Earlier, England's deputy chief medical officer defended the decision to delay closing schools and introducing other stringent measures.

Dr Jenny Harries said experts are assessing new cases on an hourly basis to achieve a "balanced response".

The latest figures as of 9:00 GMT on Tuesday, include 324 cases in England, 27 in Scotland,16 in Northern Ireland and six in Wales.

Of the cases in England, there are 91 in London, with the next highest infected area being the South East, which has 51 cases.

The latest death, on Monday evening, was a man with underlying health conditions who was being looked after at Watford General Hospital, the West Hertfordshire Hospitals NHS Trust said.

He caught the virus in the UK and officials are trying to trace who he was in contact with, the country's chief medical adviser Prof Chris Whitty said.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51822618

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Major banks have decided to allow customers to defer mortgage and loan payments and also to allow them to close fixed term savings accounts without penalty.

Read more - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51817947

 

[Leon103]

I am not sure we should believe the figures coming out of China.

Why?