Electric cars.

[dad_of_jon]

I found this interesting....

 

[Chippy_Tea]

This demonstrates the problem even if you have home charging if you are going to do big milages paying 85p per kWh is going to give you little benefit over an ICE car, if I were going to go EV and was planning to use it for long journeys I would buy the dase model Tesla on PCP for all the reasons in the video, If charging at home and rarely using public chargers I would buy the cheapest EV that would suit my needs.

 

[MashBag]

Tbh, I have done the sums twice and I cannot see a financial benefit, and tbh it is getting worse. Let alone an environmental one.

 

[Nicks90]

Tbh, I have done the sums twice and I cannot see a financial benefit, and tbh it is getting worse. Let alone an environmental one.

In what way?
If you can charge at home and do an average of 7000 miles per year...take the corsa as an example from the monthly prices quoted on the previous page over a three year lease.

Should get 45mpg from the 1.2 petrol. Manufacturer quotes 52mpg, but let's be realistic
It's about £7 a gallon / £1.55 a litre for petrol around here. 7000 miles at 45mpg will cost you £1200 a year in Dino juice, or £3600 over the 3 year lease
Add on it needs a service every 10000 miles. So you will need two services. First is a minor, second at 20k miles is a major. That's about £500 in servicing.
So now you are at about £4000 in running costs over 3 years.

Electric Corsa. Officially 220wh/mile. Let's be realistic and say 250. That's 4 miles per kWh
7000 miles is 1750kw. On a typical EV energy deal your paying 7p/kw
That's £122 per year if home charging, or £366 over the 3 year deal. No servicing required in those 3 years, as it only needs the pollen filters doing AFTER 3 years.
Total running costs £366

So you are saving £3600 over 3 years, or £100 per month with the EV, but as the corsa e is £100 per month more to lease, you are dead even.


If you add in any ulez charges, then the money swings firmly in the EV favour as that is pure savings over its petrol counterpart.
Doing it as a company car, then even more savings on BIK rates. In fact it's between £80-100 per month saving. Or over three grand for the whole lease.

So the question is, if you live outside of a city and never pay ulez, and are buying / leasing it yourself, there isn't a financial argument for or against. It's dead even
If you are a company car buyer or regularly driving in a city that robs motorists, then it's a huge saving.


Environmental considerations
Petrol Corsa will burn 500 gallons of juice over that typical 3 year lease.
EV Corsa will use 5500kw electricity over the same period.

Burning 1 gallon of petrol generates 10kg of co2, times 500 gallons = 5000kg of co2 over 3 years
In 2021 the UK averaged 225gm of co2 per kWh produced on the national grid. X 5500kw = 1400kg of co2 over 3 years

So you are saving over 3tonnes of co2 emitted overall.

None of the Dino juice will be recycled. NONE
Even if none of the battery is recycled at the end of the vehicle life, it's still way way way ahead in terms of overal impact

 

[Chippy_Tea]

So you are saving £3600 over 3 years, or £100 per month with the EV, but as the corsa e is £100 per month more to lease, you are dead even.

Buy if you charge at home and intend to keep the car for several years the savings made running the EV will quickly pay back the extra paid for it in the fist place, it has been predicted prices will even out as more people move to EV meaning a win win for the EV drivers.

 

[Nicks90]

Absolutely, the longer you keep it the more it tips towards the EV... But most people buy a new car on a 3 year deal and renew it at the end of the term for another new car. So based on worst case short term scenario, it's still even stevens

 

[Nicks90]

I also left out a quote significant bit of the environmental calcs.
To produce a gallon of petrol at the pump takes approximately 5kw of energy, or roughly 12% of the energy you get from a gallon of petrol.

So whilst the carbon calculations I gave are based just on burning that petrol, you should really add on 12% extra to account for refining the oil in to petro grade fuel.

 

[MashBag]

Lovely example, but I don't live in town.
I don't benefit from ulez, I don't lease.
But I do expect to keep a car longer than 3 years, so residual value is important and 1 do more than 7k, and a few long drives which imo would be impossible.

 

[gavp1979]

The residual value is an interesting one that I have not really considered before. It would be interesting to see if the price of ice cars plummet in the future as EVs become more popular or if the scarcity of ice cars and reluctance of some people moving to EVs will actually have the opposite effect and raise the price of used ice cars

 

[Chippy_Tea]

or if the scarcity of ice cars and reluctance of some people moving to EVs will actually have the opposite effect and raise the price of used ice cars

I think second hand ICE prices will raise especially if they dont get on street charging at a fair cost sorted for us that cannot charge at home , i imagine if this happens the government will increase the cost of diesel and petrol to try to force us out of our ICE cars.

 

[gavp1979]

That's partly what I was thinking, if the cost of petrol and diesel rises as EVs take hold then that could have a significant effect on dropping used ice prices ... but there again supply and demand could significantly increase used ice prices if a large amount of people can not be convinced that EVs are a viable option for them. This thread shows that there are very strong opinions on both sides so it will be interesting to see how it plays out

 

[Brew_DD2]

Another variable to consider is that easy access to affordable petrol/diesel might become more difficult as EV uptake increases.

 

[MashBag]

Here's a thought. For anyone who understands destillation. What are you going to do with the "new" waste products called petrol and another called diesel when you continue to fractractate crude oil, to get av gas, lubricants, heating oil, fuel oil etc.

 

[dad_of_jon]

That's partly what I was thinking, if the cost of petrol and diesel rises as EVs take hold then that could have a significant effect on dropping used ice prices ... but there again supply and demand could significantly increase used ice prices if a large amount of people can not be convinced that EVs are a viable option for them. This thread shows that there are very strong opinions on both sides so it will be interesting to see how it plays out

Agreed although my interest in owning a car of any kind is likely to dwindle in the coming years.
If crude oil continues to be processed then the diesel / petrol may become cheaper because less demand if most cars are ev's vs fuel stations closing due to lack of customers. Even if petrol stations converted to EV recharge stations the throughput of customers would decrease so would the shops in these stations remain viable

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Here's a thought. For anyone who understands destillation. What are you going to do with the "new" waste products called petrol and another called diesel when you continue to fractractate crude oil, to get av gas, lubricants, heating oil, fuel oil etc.

They'll sell it cheap to all the countries that carry on running ICE vehicles.

 

[Omega]

£5k/year insurance will definitely make EV uneconomical in my case

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2...c-vehicle-owners-face-soaring-insurance-costs
I like the idea of owning an electric car - when I ordered solar panels and Tesla PowerWall 2 last year, I assumed I would need to generate a lot of energy to feed the car and put as many panels as I could. Even now, when the daylight is reduced, I export 4 times more than I import. If I have Tesla Y, and don't drive it, I would definitely be able to have enough energy for a few days. Maybe I can even get into energy trading (I looked at it, but my calculations show very little profit, so don't count on it). However, exorbitant insurance costs and initial investment makes it highly uneconomical. Otherwise I really like the idea of charging at home - it is very convenient

 

[MattH1973]

in this discussion of economics there is one other variable, that is likely to be dominant - government policy around tax, subsidy and incentives.

- A significant majority of the cost of petrol at the pump is various taxes. Therefore what govt does with these taxes is likely to be the dominant factor in price.
- The govt is highly dependant on this income, and as EV take up increases they will have to recover that somehow. The amount is so significant that some form of tax on EV driving (whether it is around recharging or a per mile toll) will surely be considered.
- As EV take up increases the current subsidies / incentives will become unsustainable.

What govt does in these 3 areas will be a major factor, I think. I suspect the most likely outcome is that once EV takeup is significant, govts of any party wont be able to resist the temptation to tax motoring. History tells us this.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

£5k/year insurance will definitely make EV uneconomical in my case

I have done a comparison between a similar size and age EV to my car and these are the results, i think the guy in the article needs to shop around!

ICE - £428

EV - £484

 

[Benfleet Brewery]

Agreed
If crude oil continues to be processed then the diesel / petrol may become cheaper because less demand if most cars are ev's vs fuel stations closing due to lack of customers.

Petrol and diesel is dirt cheap anyway. It's taxes that make it expensive.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

The govt is highly dependant on this income, and as EV take up increases they will have to recover that somehow.

Diesel will be around for many years to come as vehicles that use it the most cannot use electric, we are years away from making goods vehicles that can run on battery alone so all vehicles from HGV's down to vans will have no option.

30% of U.K drivers have no access to off street parking so the government will hit the companies supplying off street parking.

As i said above there will always be demand for diesel and petrol in other countries so the producers are not going to run out of places to sell it and the government will take their cut as usual.