Covid - Plan B & Omicron

[Leon103]

That's the current advice, lateral flow each day. Only PCR if you fail a lateral flow or develop symptoms. A lot of talk earlier in the pandemic that lateral flow were not very accurate. This is not my experience, it picked mine and my daughter's very early.

Getting hold of LFT's are the bugger. It seems they were scarce in Wales so they sent what they had to England, not the best move.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

South Africa has lifted overnight curfew rules, with officials saying the country may have passed the peak of its fourth wave of Covid-19 infections.
A government statement said the Omicron variant, while highly transmissible, had seen lower hospitalisation rates than previous waves.
There had been a marginal increase in the number of deaths, it added.
The variant - first reported by South Africa last month - is spreading fast elsewhere leading to widespread curbs.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned of a "tsunami" of infections from Delta and Omicron variants that could overwhelm health systems.
But in South Africa, a statement released after a special cabinet meeting said cases and hospital admission rates had dropped in almost all provinces across the country.
For the week ending 25 December 2021, the number of confirmed infections stood at 89,781 - down from 127,753 the week before.

The changes announced include lifting restrictions on movement between midnight and 04:00. Businesses will also be allowed to sell alcohol under normal licensing rules, instead of closing at 23:00.
Overnight curfew rules of varying severities have been in place since a national state of disaster was declared in late March 2020.
The country still has "spare capacity for admission of patients even for routine health services" despite the Omicron wave, officials said.

The public are still being urged to get vaccinated and follow public health protocols, including mandatory mask-wearing.
Gatherings remain capped at 1,000 people indoors and 2,000 outdoors or 50% at venue capacity to allow for social distancing.
The National Coronavirus Command Council (NCCC) will monitor the situation and make adjustments if necessary or if hospital pressure increases, officials said.
South Africa has recorded almost 3.5 million Covid-19 cases and more than 90,000 deaths during the pandemic - more than any other country in Africa.
Many countries around the world are battling the Omicron wave while weighing up restrictions:

• Israel has approved a fourth Covid-19 vaccination, the director-general of its health ministry said. The country reported its highest number of cases since September on Thursday
• France has reported more than 200,000 cases for a second day in a row
• In India, a spike in Covid infections has prompted the government to tighten restrictions, including night curfews in all major cities
• Germany has announced it will lift strict travel rules for people arriving from countries hardest hit by Omicron in early January, including the UK
• Portugal has reduced the period of self-isolation for asymptomatic Covid and contact cases from 10 to seven days

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-59832843

 

[Northern_Brewer]

I remember seeing a virologist taking about omicron when it first emerged saying that as viruses mutate they generally become less significant as a way of remaining in the population and not killing itself off by becoming to deadly (think ebola)

It fits with the “law of declining virulence” and all that, so fingers crossed.

Sorry, but this is one of the common misconceptions - there's no law of declining [inherent] virulence. That only happens if there's evolutionary pressure to do so, which happens when transmission happens at the same time as symptoms. That's not true for something like SARS2, which mostly transmits before it causes symptoms. There's plenty of examples of viruses not becoming inherently less nasty - rabies, measles, smallpox.

So there's no God-given right to the assumption that SARS2 will become inherently less nasty, although the impact on the population is a combination of inherent nastiness, immunity and anti-viral drugs. Immunity - mostly from vaccination, some from previous infection - is the main reason omicron is having less impact than previous waves, but at the same time immunity is far from 100%, there are still people in intensive care with omicron and people are starting to die from it.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

Already at "Worst Case 1" in the NHS :

And now we're starting to see hospitals declare a critical incident, with staffing reduced to the level where care is compromised :
https://thelincolnite.co.uk/2022/01/lincolnshire-hospitals-declare-critical-incident/

 

[Hop_it]

Woke up this morning feeling rough (thick head, runny nose and aching limbs). Thought it wise to take an LFT. . . . . . Result: +ve
So, I set about trying to book a PCR test. There were no appointments available anywhere in the country when I went on-line. I had no other choice than to request a home delivery. It will be interesting to see how long that takes to arrive ?????
My wife took a test when mine showed up +ve. Fortunately her result was -ve. Hopefully that will remain the case

 

[Chippy_Tea]

And now we're starting to see hospitals declare a critical incident, with staffing reduced to the level where care is compromised :

This is the problem getting the virus may not lead to you going to hospital but because its much easier to catch there are going to be a lot less staff looking after those that are not so luck and do need to go to hospital.

 

[Bernie]

The testing frenzy has led an inflation in the costs of tests. Why should the tests cost more?

 

[Rodcx500z]

I have just been reading about a new variant found in 12 people in the same region in the south of France, New variant in southern France found to have '46 mutations' from original Covid - Gloucestershire Live

 

[Chippy_Tea]

England will continue with its Plan B Covid measures amid growing pressures on the NHS, Boris Johnson has said.
The prime minister said it would be "folly" to think the pandemic was over and pressure on hospitals would be "considerable" over the coming weeks.
However, he added the country was in a "much better position" than this time last year thanks to vaccinations.
The PM stressed Omicron looks less severe than other variants, despite it being "incredibly transmissible".
Speaking during a visit to a vaccination centre in Aylesbury, he said the "mixture of things we're doing at the moment" were the correct measures.
He said this included continuing with Plan B, which includes mask wearing in certain indoor settings and guidance to work from home where possible, ensuring it is taken "seriously" by people.
These measures are due to expire on 26 January, although a review is expected in the next few days.

Mr Johnson added people should be "sensible" and take a rapid test before going to see people they do not usually meet, as well as getting their first, second and booster jabs.
"We've got to make sure we look after our NHS in any way that we can" he said, adding: "I appreciate the pressures that our hospitals are under."

'Remain cautious'
As NHS trusts warn of staffing pressures, Mr Johnson said the government was looking at what it could do to "move people into those areas that are particularly badly affected."
He said: "Looking at the pressures on the NHS in the next couple of weeks and maybe longer. Looking at the numbers of people who are going to be going into hospital, it would be absolute folly to say that this thing is all over now bar the shouting.
"We've got to remain cautious, we've got to stick with plan B, we've got to get boosted."
Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers, which represents NHS trusts, said on Twitter it was "very clear" the NHS in the rest of the country was "now coming under the significant pressure London has been encountering".
Many trusts said the biggest challenge was rising staff absence, he said, so some were declaring critical incidents to manage those.
The devolved administrations in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have the power to set their own Covid restrictions.
It comes as secondary school children are due to head back to school this week, with testing and mask wearing in classrooms part of their return.
On a new requirement for masks, Mr Johnson agreed with Education Secretary Nadhim Zahawi and said the government "won't keep them on a day more than is necessary."
Mr Johnson said he did not "like the idea of having face masks in classrooms any more than anybody else does", but said there is an "increasing body of scientific support" for the idea that face masks contain transmission.
Earlier on Monday, Mr Zahawi defended plans to require secondary pupils to wear masks during lessons until 26 January, adding ministers were determined to keep schools open after learning a "painful lesson" from earlier closures.
He confirmed all secondary pupils in England would be tested before returning this week.
On Sunday, England and Wales recorded 137,583 daily cases and 73 deaths within 28 days of a positive Covid test. Data for Scotland and Northern Ireland is due to be updated after the bank holiday weekend.
The latest figures for England are down on the 162,572 new cases reported on Saturday, which had been a record number for the fifth day in a row.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59859923

 

[simon12]

So I caught covid almost certainly a week ago today (outside chance a day later or 1-2 earlier) Symptoms started late Tuesday 28th Dec but I only tested positive on Thursday 30th, When can I open/start working again?

 

[samale]

So I caught covid almost certainly a week ago today (outside chance a day later or 1-2 earlier) Symptoms started late Tuesday 28th Dec but I only tested positive on Thursday 30th, When can I open/start working again?

If you test negative on two consecutive lateral flow tests. One on day 6 and one on day 7

 

[Leon103]

If you test negative on two consecutive lateral flow tests. One on day 6 and one on day 7

Correct. Start back in day 7 if you have negative lft on both days, if not it's wait 10 days.

 

[DavidDetroit]

If you test negative on two consecutive lateral flow tests. One on day 6 and one on day 7

Reminiscent of FG checks when it's safe to bottle to avoid bottle bombs.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

I have just been reading about a new variant found in 12 people in the same region in the south of France, New variant in southern France found to have '46 mutations' from original Covid - Gloucestershire Live

It's not that new - if you look at the original report, the first known infection was in mid November, before omicron, and there's only been a handful of cases since. So nothing like omicron in transmission rates. Obviously it's good that people are looking out for these things, and it's worrying that we've got another one with a lot of mutations apparently from Africa (first patient had just returned to France from Cameroon), but I don't think non-virologists need to worry too much about B.1.640.2 unless we get more evidence of it being particularly nasty.

 

[Rodcx500z]

It's not that new - if you look at the original report, the first known infection was in mid November, before omicron, and there's only been a handful of cases since. So nothing like omicron in transmission rates. Obviously it's good that people are looking out for these things, and it's worrying that we've got another one with a lot of mutations apparently from Africa (first patient had just returned to France from Cameroon), but I don't think non-virologists need to worry too much about B.1.640.2 unless we get more evidence of it being particularly nasty.

Tell you what NB you are on the ball with everything, i would like to sit down with you over a pint or two, i am not very good with written answers, don't take this post the wrong way

 

[alfajerry]

My daughter-in-law was 'pinged' yesterday, but was mystified as she has been non-Covid ill and not left the house.
After a lot of investigation it turns out that she was 'pinged' for sitting the other side of the common wall in their semi-detached house from their neighbour who is positive!

 

[entertheflagon]

Re-introducing face masks in shops, public transport and pubs (when not drinking) would make a big difference and wouldn't cause difficulty to the economy.

Why would it make a big difference? I've asked a couple I know who work at Astra Zen, one full time on the virus about masks and they laughed. They are next to useless ,have little effect.
After 10 mins or so , when they become moist from normal aspiration, you'd almost literaly be spraying airborn any virus. They are about control, wasteful and can be harmful even.
People seem to equate these rags to the expensive, surgical masks used and changed frequently in the near sterile environment of an operating theatre, Not the case.

 

[dad_of_jon]

Sorry, but this is one of the common misconceptions - there's no law of declining [inherent] virulence. That only happens if there's evolutionary pressure to do so, which happens when transmission happens at the same time as symptoms. That's not true for something like SARS2, which mostly transmits before it causes symptoms. There's plenty of examples of viruses not becoming inherently less nasty - rabies, measles, smallpox.

do rabies, measels and smallpox viruses mutate enough to evade vaccination/effective treatment? Because smallpox has been vaccinated out of existence.

If a virus is causing more serious disease and therefore introducing greater mortality won't severe government restrictions hamper its ability to spread in favour of a milder less serious variant that we are not so concerned about?

I have read that mutations usually are a trade off of one ability against another, so its unlikely that a virus can spread much easier, evade vaccinations and become more lethal. Has vaccination and restrictions led to some evolutionary pressure?

 

[Flat Foot]

John Burn-Murdoch's analysis of the data is always an interesting read

 

[Chippy_Tea]

As it says below they cannot jab the whole world every six months -

Prof Pollard told BBC Radio 4's Today programme:
"It really is not affordable, sustainable or probably even needed to vaccinate everyone on the planet every four to six months.
"We haven't even managed to vaccinate everyone in Africa with one dose so we're certainly not going to get to a point where fourth doses for everyone is manageable."

Vaccinating everyone on the planet against Covid-19 regularly is not sustainable or affordable, a UK vaccine scientist has said.
Prof Sir Andrew Pollard, who helped develop the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine, said the most at risk should be identified and prioritised instead.
He said the vaccine rollout had gone "extremely well" in the UK but other parts of the world were falling behind.
Booster jabs have been offered to all eligible adults in the UK.

There has been a surge of Omicron cases in the UK, with 157,758 cases reported across England and Scotland on Monday. Data for Wales and Northern Ireland is to be reported after the recent long weekend.
But Prime Minister Boris Johnson's spokesman said the government "doesn't see any data to suggest that further restrictions would be the right approach" in England.
He said the public should be "in no doubt" it would be a difficult time for the NHS but there were mitigations in place to help them through a "challenging winter".
A number of hospital trusts have declared critical incidents, with coronavirus cases leading to staff shortages and increased pressure on services.
Plan B measures currently in place - including mask wearing in some indoor settings and guidance to work from home where possible - are "the correct course", the spokesman added.
Health Secretary Sajid Javid said the government was not looking at cutting the self-isolation period for those who test positive to five days.
Speaking after visiting a vaccination centre in south London, he said the current rules allowing people to leave their 10 days isolation early if they test negative on days six and seven was the "right, balanced, proportionate approach".
The prime minister will host a Downing Street news conference later. He will be joined by chief medical officer for England Prof Sir Chris Whitty and chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance.

Full article - Covid: Vaccines for all every four to six months not needed, says expert