Covid-19 the second wave.

[BartonMillBrewer]

I try and avoid the MSM a lot now I do read some but am very careful with it, when you read these, you are reading someones narrowed opinion with its own agenda, they will tell you what they want to tell you and not tell you what doesn't suit their narative.

All of them are as bad at it. The daily mail get its cop for this and rightly so but Guardian is just as messed up IMO and the BBC I think thats probably the worst.

It is danerous getting info from anywhere these days and I always take it with a pinch of salt read but I don't see why the above are regarded as trustworthy , I try and get a bit of everything and come up with something in the middle. It is also handy knowing people in certain lines of work who can often put an angle on how things really are.

The area of reliable data is difficult for a number of reasons but the current background is that in the UK now (September) is far greater than it was in March. Consequently more positive results are being recorded. Yet with this increase in testing capacity the infection and death rates have, until recently, been falling.
Somehting to bear in miind is the unreliable nature of the swab test in the nostril and troiat. This means the number of false negative results are being excluded from the total.
What will muddy the waters further is the latest requirement for tests only to be carried out on people presenting covid syptoms. As we know a lot of people are asyptomatic and have the abiltiy to go and infect others along with those with false negative test results.
The only reasonably reliable datum to rely on is the measure if excess deaths, which only works when the death rate exceeds the norm.
Currently I believe the excess death rate is negative i.e. less people are dying than the statistical norm. The reasons for this will be wide ranging but there is likely to be a rise as those currently with conditions such as a cancer who have avoided getting tests will end up in the health system later than they would have and their conditions may be too advanced for a cure to be effective.

While the data presented is subject to interpretation the trend is reasonably reliable but I would listen to the medical advisors who have access to the granular detail we don't; such as infection rates by age, ethnicity and postcode.

Is there any relaible single datum? Big question with a number of answers but unless you have a specific interest in knowing what the statistics are then trend is as good as an indicator as any. While testing capacity was increasing from March the trend for infection and deaths continued to drop. This suggests the lockdown measures were effective at containing the spread of virus and stopped the health system from being swamped; which was the primary reason for the lockdown.
For those that believe the lockdown was nonsense and should lifted completely understand this. Around 6% of the UK population has so far been registered as having contracted the disease and with that some 43000 deaths. With no restrictions in place lets assume 100% of the population contracted the virus that could extrapolate to some 800,000 deaths and some 5 million patients needing health care in a short time period. Where would you put the corpses and where would you treat the sick? The NHS has potentail capaity for possibly 1 million beds. With no ability to treat the vast majority of cases the death rate would be higher as those that could have been treated would not receive treatment and die. Then there are those patients that would be discharged from hospital to make way for covid patients. A proportion of them would also die unnecessarily by not receiving the heath care they required. But that is just the impact on the health system, the impact on the economy would be immense as businesses struggle to find suffiecient healthy people to replace those that fall ill. Scaremongering? Certainly the situation in the US and Brazil demonstrate considerably higher death rates as result of fewer precautions than the UK.

Long term there are only two possible cures for this virus, natural immunity and/or a vaccine. I'm no virologist but I am inclined to think that asymptomatic people are likely to have created antibodies as are those who are symptomatic and have recovered from the disease. The race to create a viable vaccine will inevitably produce one or more vaccinations but we do not know how the human body develops and how long it retains a defence against the virus, either naturally or via a vaccine.
Historically when European settlers landed in Norht America they took a lot of diseases that were new to the native North Americans. Result was a lot of deaths. However, sufficient numbers developed an immunity and the populations recovered.

One well documented case worth reading about is that of Typhoid Mary who had a natural immunity to Typhoid. She was a cook in New York in the late 1800s. Her poor personal hygiene was responsible for the deaths of hundreds of New York diners until she was caught and placed in isolation for the remainder of her life.

Long term I think this corona virus will be trated by the human body just like the existing corona viruses. An immunity will develop either natuarally or supported by vaccine and will become just one of the hundres of viruses the human body takes in its stride. Worth bearing in mind is that many common colds are caused by corona viruses.

So don't get too hung up on the data but keep an eye on the trend. Take the sensible precautions, keep your distance from others, don't mix in large groups, don't touch your eyes nose or mouth when out, and wash your hands when you return home; and drink beer as it contains alcohol and we know that viruses don't like alcohol!

 

[Brew_DD2]

Controversally Swedens prof are claiming their strat worked and they are building herd immunity better.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...owest-rate-since-pandemic-began-idUSKBN25Z2TM

I'm all for minimum intervention, but unfortunately I don't think enough of our population can be trusted.

 

[Covrich]

I'm all for minimum intervention, but unfortunately I don't think enough of our population can be trusted.

I am / was playing devils advocate to be honest.. It will be interesting to see if Sweden did get it right but I think we will be at least a year off to truley know.

 

[BartonMillBrewer]

I'm all for minimum intervention, but unfortunately I don't think enough of our population can be trusted.

I agree with you . Ceratinly if the positive results by age are accurate then certainly the 20 - 45s appear to spreading the virus by social interaction. The result is likely to be a spike in the next few weeks.
Having said that as the weather worsens people are less likely to meet outside and with restrictions on pubs and clubs that should put a damper on the spread.
Unfortunately this is still all trying to suppress the spread rather than deal with it through immunisation. Result is without a reliable vaccine the virus will be with us from now on.

 

[Covrich]

The area of reliable data is difficult for a number of reasons but the current background is that in the UK now (September) is far greater than it was in March. Consequently more positive results are being recorded. Yet with this increase in testing capacity the infection and death rates have, until recently, been falling.
Somehting to bear in miind is the unreliable nature of the swab test in the nostril and troiat. This means the number of false negative results are being excluded from the total.
What will muddy the waters further is the latest requirement for tests only to be carried out on people presenting covid syptoms. As we know a lot of people are asyptomatic and have the abiltiy to go and infect others along with those with false negative test results.
The only reasonably reliable datum to rely on is the measure if excess deaths, which only works when the death rate exceeds the norm.
Currently I believe the excess death rate is negative i.e. less people are dying than the statistical norm. The reasons for this will be wide ranging but there is likely to be a rise as those currently with conditions such as a cancer who have avoided getting tests will end up in the health system later than they would have and their conditions may be too advanced for a cure to be effective.

While the data presented is subject to interpretation the trend is reasonably reliable but I would listen to the medical advisors who have access to the granular detail we don't; such as infection rates by age, ethnicity and postcode.

Is there any relaible single datum? Big question with a number of answers but unless you have a specific interest in knowing what the statistics are then trend is as good as an indicator as any. While testing capacity was increasing from March the trend for infection and deaths continued to drop. This suggests the lockdown measures were effective at containing the spread of virus and stopped the health system from being swamped; which was the primary reason for the lockdown.
For those that believe the lockdown was nonsense and should lifted completely understand this. Around 6% of the UK population has so far been registered as having contracted the disease and with that some 43000 deaths. With no restrictions in place lets assume 100% of the population contracted the virus that could extrapolate to some 800,000 deaths and some 5 million patients needing health care in a short time period. Where would you put the corpses and where would you treat the sick? The NHS has potentail capaity for possibly 1 million beds. With no ability to treat the vast majority of cases the death rate would be higher as those that could have been treated would not receive treatment and die. Then there are those patients that would be discharged from hospital to make way for covid patients. A proportion of them would also die unnecessarily by not receiving the heath care they required. But that is just the impact on the health system, the impact on the economy would be immense as businesses struggle to find suffiecient healthy people to replace those that fall ill. Scaremongering? Certainly the situation in the US and Brazil demonstrate considerably higher death rates as result of fewer precautions than the UK.

Long term there are only two possible cures for this virus, natural immunity and/or a vaccine. I'm no virologist but I am inclined to think that asymptomatic people are likely to have created antibodies as are those who are symptomatic and have recovered from the disease. The race to create a viable vaccine will inevitably produce one or more vaccinations but we do not know how the human body develops and how long it retains a defence against the virus, either naturally or via a vaccine.
Historically when European settlers landed in Norht America they took a lot of diseases that were new to the native North Americans. Result was a lot of deaths. However, sufficient numbers developed an immunity and the populations recovered.

One well documented case worth reading about is that of Typhoid Mary who had a natural immunity to Typhoid. She was a cook in New York in the late 1800s. Her poor personal hygiene was responsible for the deaths of hundreds of New York diners until she was caught and placed in isolation for the remainder of her life.

Long term I think this corona virus will be trated by the human body just like the existing corona viruses. An immunity will develop either natuarally or supported by vaccine and will become just one of the hundres of viruses the human body takes in its stride. Worth bearing in mind is that many common colds are caused by corona viruses.

So don't get too hung up on the data but keep an eye on the trend. Take the sensible precautions, keep your distance from others, don't mix in large groups, don't touch your eyes nose or mouth when out, and wash your hands when you return home; and drink beer as it contains alcohol and we know that viruses don't like alcohol!

Yes I in prinicipal agree. I think a lot of common sense taking pre cautions ect and all that.. WHat I meant by MSM is ssadly I do think they like to senesationalise things and have reported or distored stories to scare people I seen it all over SM and its getting people riled up.

Someone I knew from school put her own debit card in he rmouth whilst going through her purse, spat it out and in a fit of panic ran to the sink and started using soapy water to wash her tounge.. This is someone who religiously cannot stop reading the media about it and is consumed by fear and irrationality..

I am in no way trying to play down the seriousness of it , my ex and I know many many people who work on teh front line NHS in the area and they all treat it seriously but generally I find them to be a lot more scpetical about the medias approach to it than your average joe.

THen you have the people doing big any mask marches and stuff


But I think the government should follow your advice scrap the silly quotes and change it for "wash your hands, drink beer"

 

[Brew_DD2]

Ceratinly if the positive results by age are accurate then certainly the 20 - 45s appear to spreading the virus by social interaction.

I also think a large part of this is they those in that age category are the ones who were asked to get back to work as well. Tends to be younger workers in customer-facing roles, and hospitality where working from home simply isn't an option.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Latest BBC news -

Households in Birmingham have been banned from mixing in new lockdown measures announced following a spike in coronavirus cases.
The city now has the second highest rate of Covid-19 infection in England, behind Bolton.
Similar measures have also been introduced in the neighbouring boroughs of Sandwell and Solihull.
The restrictions will begin on Tuesday, it was announced at a regional meeting of council leaders.
West Midlands mayor Andy Street said: "The areas will now be escalated to an area of national intervention, with a ban on people socialising with people outside their own household."
The rate of coronavirus infection in Birmingham on 7 September was up to 85.4 per 100,000 people, up from 32 on the previous week.

 

[Brew_DD2]

I am in no way trying to play down the seriousness of it , my ex and I know many many people who work on teh front line NHS in the area and they all treat it seriously but generally I find them to be a lot more scpetical about the medias approach to it than your average joe

A big part of the problem. The media does sensationalise, but also there is a dearth of voices from scientific backgrounds. Most of these journalists simply don't know what they are talking about. And I don't mean that as an insult, it's just not their area.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Latest from BBC News -

Coronavirus infections have increased in recent weeks in the UK, according to new estimates.

The government's latest R number is between 1 and 1.2 which means the epidemic is growing.

And a study of thousands of people in England found cases doubling every seven to eight days, with a marked rise in the north and among young people.

New laws on how many people can socialise indoors and outdoors are being introduced from Monday.

The virus is still at much lower levels across the UK than at the peak of the pandemic in April.

Cases reduced dramatically in May and stayed low in June and July, but several large studies of the general population now suggest there has been a resurgence.

The REACT study of more than 150,000 volunteers in England found "accelerating transmission" at the end of August and start of September.

Levels of infection were rising across England but particularly in the north east, north west and Yorkshire.

And there were increases in positive cases in all age groups up to the age of 65, with highest rates of growth in 18-24 year olds.

Prof Paul Elliott, director of the study at Imperial College London, said the data clearly showed "a concerning trend in coronavirus infections" where cases are growing quickly across England and "no longer concentrated in key workers".

He said there was evidence of "an epidemic in the community" and not the result of more people being tested.

Nicola Sturgeon has warned that the average number of cases in Scotland has been "more than trebling every three weeks".

However in Wales, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) says there has been no increase in cases during the first week in September, estimates 1,200 people had coronavirus in the week between 30 August and 5 September.

In England, the equivalent estimate was 39,700 - 11,000 more than the previous week.

The ONS bases its figures on thousands of swab tests carried out in households, whether people have symptoms or not.

Katherine Kent, from the ONS infection survey, said the results suggested "an increase in Covid-19 infections in England during recent weeks, with higher infection rates among 17-34 year olds".

 

[BartonMillBrewer]

The hospitalisation rates are steady / falling, which may indicate it's as @Clint says - the more you test, the more you find.

Inevitably the more you look the more you find. The purpose of testing is not to gather statistics but to find people to treat and/or isolate to reduce the spread.

 

[marshbrewer]

Sure, I'm not criticising the increased testing, in just saying that increased testing would mean more detected cases, even if the infection rate wasn't increasing. However, today's news suggests the R number is increasing, so it does look like a second wave.

 

[samale]

Lock down is having a big impact on people's lifes. If you look at the figures in northern Ireland alone. Covid is killing very few. I just wish they would give the same focus and funding to other areas that need it.
Suicide rates in northern Ireland is the highest in the UK and Ireland. The rate is actually increasing due to lockdown.

 

[GerritT]

Terrific here in the Netherlands.

 

[strange-steve]

Saying things like "more people die getting into a hot bath than Covid," doesn't really wash because it's patently nonsense, and even more so without any rational or empirical evidence to support it.

The guy that wrote the article that this statistic came from was talking about it on radio 4 earlier and said that there was an error in reporting this. The actual statistic was with regards to the risk of a 60-something year old dying in a bath over the course of an entire year, not the risk of anyone dying every time they get into a bath. Another example of how statistics can be twisted to suit a person's preconceptions.

 

[Leon103]

I don't pay much attention to stats on testing any longer, they seem all over the place and different numbers from different sources. I look at my local county and that is it. So my query are tests carried out privately, say at ones work place counted anywhere?

 

[Brewnaldo]

Read some stuff from Catalonia about how cases are thought he roof but hospital admissions have stayed flat.

It could be that masks, distancing and an aware population are enough to reduce the viral load enough to avoid mass hospitalizations?

Perhaps that's the correct route towards something approaching herd immunity?

 

[Linalmeemow]

I'm probably being very naive (and definitely not scientific, which pains me) but isn't there a decent chance the virus would mutate or naturally select to become less harmful over time? It's not in a virus's best interest to kill its host, so wouldn't less lethal infections tend to become more successful?

Again, give me science to contradict this by all means!

 

[Leon103]

I'm probably being very naive (and definitely not scientific, which pains me) but isn't there a decent chance the virus would mutate or naturally select to become less harmful over time? It's not in a virus's best interest to kill its host, so wouldn't less lethal infections tend to become more successful?

Again, give me science to contradict this by all means!

Yes that could happen and one of the hopes that scientists had back in March

 

[Brew_DD2]

I'm probably being very naive (and definitely not scientific, which pains me) but isn't there a decent chance the virus would mutate or naturally select to become less harmful over time? It's not in a virus's best interest to kill its host, so wouldn't less lethal infections tend to become more successful?

Again, give me science to contradict this by all means!

Seemingly this is what happened with H1N1.

 

[Old Geezer]

Didn't happen with HIV