Covid-19 the second wave.

[Northern_Brewer]

If there is no lasting immunity, then we need to understand that we will just have to live with the virus and it's consequences, as, by definition, there will be no magic bullet of a vacation. The purpose of a vacation to provide immunity.

I was giving that as an extreme example, but it's been the big uncertainty over whether a vaccine is possible. The reality is that although it's too soon to know for certain, it is certainly very difficult to get Covid a second time (ie R is very low, low enough not to be an economic threat), and if you do then it doesn't seem to hit too hard (so hospitals won't be overwhelmed by second-time infectees).

And so the noises coming out of the vaccine labs seems to be fairly hopeful - there don't seem to be any obvious showstoppers of the kind that people quickly identified with HIV, it may take a while to optimise the dose for different categories and some of the 180 in development will certianly fail for one reason or another. But broadly vaccine development seems to be going about as well as could be expected (see links in post #298), so I wouldn't regard "Oooh, there won't be a vaccine" as a strong argument for taking an alternative course.

 

[Saisonator]

There's lots of fat people in the UK as well. Are you trying to say that we model things based on a hypothetical population that is all a size 8, or do we model on the basis of the population as it really is?

No I am making the point that if people are morbidly obese, then they are part of the population that should be sheilded along with the old and others with underlying health issues.

Define what you mean by "vulnerable people" - by the sound of it you would include 18-34's with a bit of a beer belly?

No morbidly obese people.

How do you propose "shielding" them so that they never come in contact with a virus that is raging through the rest of the population - and are they not the exact same population that are more vulnerable to "other illnesses", how will you treat them?

Do the best you can. Who said the virus will be raging through the population? Predictions from a couple of weeks ago are already showing to be false. Probably still working with Neil Ferguson's discredited model.


Right now the odds seem pretty good on that - obviously we don't know for certain, but the main uncertainty is the nature of immunity to SARS2 in general - and your strategy is equally reliant on that particular uncertainty. If there's no lasting immunity to SARS2, then your strategy will have killed millions of people for nothing.

Most of the commentry I am hearing from scientists is that we should get used to living with covid. Promises of when vaccines will be available are getting further away.

Exactly - and that's why poor countries who can least afford to wreck their economy, have been taking the cheap option of lockdowns etc. And most of them have been doing much better than the UK. Even countries that have economies more like the UK's have found that hitting it hard and fast means that they can get back to relative normality already - see something like Taiwan as an example. The virus hits the economy far more than the lockdowns, you can't get a functioning economy back without controlling the virus.

Poor countries are doing better than the UK because they have young populations. India has a life expectancy of 69. Considering the average age for death from covid is 82, the most suseptable are no longer alive anyway. I doubt a lot of countries have strict locksdowns like in Europe, they would not have the resources, especially in Africa.

Ultimately it comes down to maths - this chart considers the case where we're at 400 cases per 100,000 in a week or two's time. If you take measures to get R down to 0.7, then you'll be down to 50 cases/100k within 3 weeks or so, and down to negligible levels within 6-8 weeks.

Lots of questions about the accuracy of testing still. Best case for false positives in the governments testing is 0.8%. If testing 200,000 people per day, that gives us 1600 false positives per day.

If you do a half-hearted lockdown that only reduces R to 0.9, then you don't reach 50 cases/100k for two months, and it takes 6+ months to disappear.

https://www.news.com.au/world/coron...s/news-story/f2188f2aebff1b7b291b297731c3da74
Dithering and half-arsedness cost you as much as a tighter lockdown, and prevent one getting on with one's life. But that's not easy for people-pleaser politicians - see how Jenrick's Newark constituency has 182 cases/100k and Johnson's Hillingdon has 81 cases/100k and are not in lockdown, whereas Bolton and Bury went into local lockdown when they had only 30 cases/100k.

View attachment 34001

 

[Chippy_Tea]

@Saisonator - Something went wrong with your post above i assume there were supposed to be separate quotes with an answer to each.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

The Liverpool City Region will be on the "very high" Covid alert level from Wednesday, Boris Johnson has announced.

Confirming new three-tier restrictions, the PM said pubs, bars and betting shops would close on Merseyside.

Most areas of England will be on "medium" alert, with measures such as the rule of six, but areas with local restrictions on household mixing are automatically on "high" alert.

The PM said all retail outlets, schools and universities would remain open.

It came after England's deputy chief medical officer, Prof Jonathan Van-Tam, said growth in Covid cases was a "nationwide phenomenon" and that "things are heating up" in areas beyond northern England.

Mr Johnson, Chancellor Rishi Sunak and England's chief medical officer Chris Whitty are holding a Downing Street news conference.

The new system is split into three alert levels: medium, high and very high. Most areas in England are in the medium alert level - meaning current restrictions continue, including the 10pm hospitality curfew.

Areas already under additional local restrictions are automatically in the high alert level - meaning bans on household mixing indoors are extended to include hospitality venues.

Nottinghamshire, East and West Cheshire and a small area of High Peak now come into this category, as well as Greater Manchester, parts of South Yorkshire, and north-east England. Around 4.4 million people will be in high alert areas.

The Liverpool City Region - home to 1.5 million people - becomes the first area to enter the very high alert level, with the closure of pubs and bars. Betting shops, gyms, leisure centres and casinos will also close in the region.

Household mixing will be banned anywhere indoors, and in outdoor gardens and hospitality. The rule of six will continue to apply in outdoor public spaces like parks, according to government guidance.

Restaurants can continue to trade in very high alert areas - including pubs and bars that serve "substantial meals" - while people will also be advised against travelling to and from these zones.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54514079

 

[Hanglow]

Seems the Governments early mantra of "follow the science" is once again being ignored by them.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54518002

 

[An Ankoù]

What I don't get about these tiered restrictions is, what's to stop anyone living in a level three zone getting a bus or a train or driving into an adjacent level 2 zone, to drink until 10 and then go home. Surely the virus would be better confined if the pubs were all kept open or all closed. Or am I missing a point somewhere?

 

[obscure]

I’ve pretty much given up trying to figure out the logic behind government Covid decisions, I make sure I am aware of current rules and guidance I.e, I wear a mask when in the shops but I am working from home full time at the moment so don’t need to worry about public transport, I’m just not bothering with the pubs and get my main grocery shop delivered.

The only changes to regulations that are likely to affect me is if they restrict household mixing further or decide to make mask wearing outside mandatory.

 

[Covrich]

I give up reading the news , even several months back I didn't know what you coudl or couldn't do..

I do to work where we have to wear masks when we roam around the site. I see my partner who is in my bubble and my kids and drop them back to my ex thats about it. I don't go to the pub and I exercise and do all my training in my house gym...

As far as I am concerned that will just remain a constant.

 

[dad_of_jon]

I think it would have been better to let the younger less at risk generation to not be subject to lockdown and all those at risk being shielded by providing regular tests to those who come into contact with them, care home workers and hospital staff. I feel sorry for the impact it has on the young. I think Sweden would have been on the money if they had not failed to better protect the elderly in care homes. If young people live with elderly people then those young people would have to subject to some restrictions. Or at least it would be up to their conscience if they wanted to risk passing it to gran/grandpa by socializing with their age group.

 

[simon12]

Just some further observations on what I noticed a few days ago where all the worst cases on the map in the south were in places with universities. Now there are 7 of the darkest blue including Oxford and everywhere south of it all in places with a university, the only dark spot in East Anglia is in Norwich in a place called University & Avenues. Going further north hot spots in Coventry called Cannon Park & University in Birmingham called Edgbaston South & University in Loughborough called Loughborough - University in Nottingham called Arboretum, Forest & Trent University (500 cases) Leicester doesn't name the university in its location but there hotspot looks to me like its where the university is. I have not looked further north as the outbreaks cover much larger areas but so far thats every major outbreak south of Sheffield around a university. All observations from this map ArcGIS Web Application

 

[Benfleet Brewery]

I knew it would all end in tiers!

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Liverpool revellers pack streets before new Tier-3 restrictions

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Lancashire has agreed to move into tier three - the top level of England Covid restrictions - from Saturday.

The "very high" alert level measures include pub closures and bans on household mixing indoors, in private gardens and most outdoor venues.
However, gyms and leisure centres would not close, unlike in Liverpool City Region - the other area in tier three.
Some local council leaders said they had been "bullied" into accepting the deal by Downing Street.
However, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the government had "worked intensively with local leaders" to agree the move.
He added that an "unrelenting rise in cases" in the north-west England county had meant "we must act now".
Around 1.5 million people, including those living in Blackburn, Blackpool, Burnley, Lancaster and Preston, will be affected by the new rules.

The Labour leaders of Preston, Pendle and South Ribble councils released statements saying they had been forced to accept a deal that would not be enough to stop the virus.
Paul Foster, of South Ribble said: "We have been bullied, harassed, threatened and blackmailed into moving into tier three."
He added: "The discussions with government were a complete shambles and we were basically told if we didn't accept the restrictions we would have even more draconian measures imposed on us."
However, Geoff Driver, the Conservative leader of Lancashire County Council, told the BBC: "It's been a long drawn out process but I think we've got a good deal."
He said it involved a support package worth £42m, the area having initially been promised £12m, with £30m to help the businesses affected.
Mr Driver said Lancashire had also been promised more support for local test and trace and a specific ministerial team to deal with the outbreak in the county.
"What we've been able to do is to convince government that the measures we have in place to monitor such things as the gyms and the leisure centres are sufficient to ensure that they're not a source of infection," he added.
The new measures, which will be reviewed every two weeks, cover all parts of Lancashire:

• People must not socialise with anybody they do not live with, or have formed a support bubble with, in any indoor setting or in any private garden or at most outdoor hospitality venues and ticketed events
• People from different households can still meet in an outdoor public space such as a park or beach, the countryside, a public garden or a sports venue, in groups of six or less
• All pubs and bars must close, unless they are serving substantial meals
• Residents should avoid staying overnight in another part of the UK, and others should avoid staying overnight in the area
• People should try to avoid travelling outside the very high alert level area or entering the very high alert level area, other than for essential journeys or to travel through as part of a longer journey
• From Monday 19 October, casinos, bingo halls, bookmakers and betting shops and soft play areas must close and car boot sale will not be permitted

Further restrictions may be agreed for particular regions in the top tier and in the Liverpool City Region, gyms and leisure centres have also been forced to close.

Full article - Covid: Lancashire to move to highest alert level

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Breaking news -
Boris Johnson says the spread of coronavirus in Greater Manchester is "grave" and he may "need to intervene" if new measures are not agreed.
Mr Johnson urged the region's mayor Andy Burnham to "engage constructively" with the government over the region entering "very high" tier 3 measures, saying the situation was worsening "with every passing day".
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly. Please refresh the page for the fullest version.
You can receive Breaking News on a smartphone or tablet via the BBC News App. You can also follow @BBCBreaking on Twitter to get the latest alerts.

 

[Cheshire Cat]

Andy's only trying to get the best deal for GM.

 

[marshbrewer]

What, he's negotiating with a 2019-nCoV acute respiratory disease? Has the disease agreed to stop infecting people while negotiations continue?

 

[Leon103]

The guy is a bigger knob than Boris

 

[LED_ZEP]

The guy is a bigger knob than Boris

Just no! (If you'd have said Trump was a bigger knob than Boris that would be a better contest)

 

[Falco]

What, he's negotiating with a 2019-nCoV acute respiratory disease?

The guy is a bigger knob than Boris

Errrr no, apparently he’s trying to protect the health and well-being of the people and businesses in his area by negotiating with Johnson for a similar financial aid package that’s been afforded to his Tory chums on Lancashire County Council. I don’t even live in that locality but can see what’s going on. Do keep up

 

[marshbrewer]

Just to clarify, my points weren't Lab v Cons, but about the logic of some people's position.

Some believe in lockdown. Some don't believe in lockdown and believe in herd immunity, and there are various positions in-between.

But it seems illogical to believe a pandemic can be sorted by lockdown if the government ponies up enough cash, but not if it doesn't!