Climate Change

[Benfleet Brewery]

Despite my tongue in cheek comments in this thread I really do care for the environment, but you do have to wonder at many of the rules/steps that governments are taking to “tackle” climate change. Every one appears to be a way to generate revenue in return for very little improvement.

One example, Congestion, ULEZ and LEZ charges for emission producing vehicles to travel into London when the most polluting ones are Lorries making essential deliveries. I also have to travel into London from Essex to visit my mother. Before the congestion and other charges came into force I could get from my house to hers in less than an hour. Now I go around the congestion charge zone to avoid paying circa £25.00, like a lot of others do, and most of that route has been changed to cycle or bus lanes leaving only one for cars. The journey now takes me a little over two hours, most of which I’m stuck in heavy traffic in London pumping more pollution into the atmosphere than I ever was before.

And what is the point of trying to reduce the burning of fossil fuels by replacing every gas boiler and every petrol and diesel vehicle, which itself will have huge environmental costs, if their replacements use electricity which is still produced by burning fossil fuels?

 

[Northern_Brewer]

Don’t get me wrong, I aren’t anti climate change, in fact I’m all in favour of any effort to reverse it. However, I’m an ex scientist / engineer that lives in the real world.

At times we currently don’t generate enough electricity in the UK to meet demand, and rely on imports from continental Europe. So I just don’t see how we are going to charge everyone’s electric vehicle overnight.

On average we import 2GW, just over 5% of demand in 2020 - but that's mostly about helping to cover the teatime peak. In the real world, we don't generally need to import any leccy during the night. We have 75.8GW of capacity but typically use around 25GW at night and 35-40GW daytime Arguably smart metering for car charging will be really helpful in making better use of that capacity.

We talked a lot about this in the electric car thread and it's perhaps best to continue there, there's no denying that electrifying everything from transport to heating will move demand from petrol & natural gas to electricity generation and transmission infrastructure, it's a challenge but the National Grid are relatively relaxed about it.

Last time I looked at the UK‘s strategy for electrical generation it still had gas fired power stations in the mix, and will probably do so for the next 25 years at least. There are 3 sites that I know of that have been granted planning permission to build a new gas fired power station, but as yet they haven‘t broken the ground on any of the projects. So I don’t see the reliance on fossil fuels diminishing in my remaining lifetime.

We've just about eliminated coal from the generation mix in 20-odd years, we're generating 43% of electricity through renewables and have some days when it's up to 60%. Sales of diesel cars have collapsed by 2/3 in the last year (against a market down 30% overall), straight petrol cars now have a market share of under 45% compared to 58% in 2020 - the various hybrids/EVs are now at 47.9% of the market and will probably become the majority next year. Too many of those are mild hybrids, but it's a start.

Our reliance on fossil fuels is diminishing all the time.

There are also hidden sources of CO2 that very rarely get spoken about, for example landfill gas contains around 25% carbon dioxide before it is burnt to generate electricity.

And where does that CO2 come from? Mostly from "organics" - half-eaten sandwiches and the like which were CO2 above a wheat field only last year. In the main it's not "fossil" CO2 which is what we're worrying about, it's no different to the CO2 released by leaves falling to the ground and turning into leaf mould.

Cement manufacturing plant have around 25 to 40% CO2 in their emissions. The calcium carbonate gets broken down into lime and CO2. So just think about how much construction you see on a daily basis.

Yep, it's well known that cement is one of the great challenges. There are various approaches - use different materials like the wooden "skyscrapers" in Hackney and Dalston, substitute some of it with eg blast furnace slag or fly ash - slag cement even has its own association now, or if carbon capture is ever worth doing then cement factories are concentrated sources of CO2 that are easier to capture than eg from the air.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

One example, Congestion, ULEZ and LEZ charges for emission producing vehicles to travel into London when the most polluting ones are Lorries making essential deliveries. I also have to travel into London from Essex to visit my mother. Before the congestion and other charges came into force I could get from my house to hers in less than an hour. Now I go around the congestion charge zone to avoid paying circa £25.00, like a lot of others do, and most of that route has been changed to cycle or bus lanes leaving only one for cars. The journey now takes me a little over two hours, most of which I’m stuck in heavy traffic in London pumping more pollution into the atmosphere than I ever was before.

You're missing the point of ULEZ which is not about CO2 emissions, to quote TFL :
"To help improve air quality, an Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) operates 24 hours a day, 7 days a week"

It's about shifting pollution from nitrogen oxides and particulates away from central London. This annualised map of pollution shows what they're trying to keep you away from :

And also your journey may be worth an extra hour and £25 to you, but there will be others who eg say "sod that, I'll take the train/bus for that journey", and a much smaller minority who may say "double sod that, we'll just get rid of the car altogether and cycle/train/bus/taxi instead".

But yes, sometimes the solutions to "local" problems like air pollution can conflict with global problems like reducing CO2 emissions - nobody said it would be easy!

And what is the point of trying to reduce the burning of fossil fuels by replacing every gas boiler and every petrol and diesel vehicle, which itself will have huge environmental costs, if their replacements use electricity which is still produced by burning fossil fuels?

As I said in the previous post, we're already up to around 40-45% renewables with peaks of 60%, plus about 15% nuclear. So less than half the electrons are "produced" by fossil fuel already. And also it's a long term project, if you convert the demand side into a "universal currency" like electricity then you only have to solve the problem once for that particular application and then you can (literally!) plug into the best available technology on the supply side - short of moving to an ocean yacht it would be hard to heat your house directly from winds in the North Sea, but converting to electric heaters or underfloor heating means that as more offshore windfarms are built, you can take advantage of them. It's a long game.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

The bottom line is we would all (well most of us) like to do our bit to halt or reverse climate change but we don't have the means to do it.

 

[Shirley Bassett]

My understanding is that National Grid gives priority to renewable generation and then asks the others to bid to generate, so I would fully expect it to be the highest percentage. My point was that we a) don’t have enough capacity to ever get to 100% from renewables and b) Government strategy is to include gas fired CCGT in the mix.

I’ve sat sometimes for days on some sites waiting for the Plant to run so that we can test the emissions, mainly because Grid won’t accept the sites bid for its services.

Latest snapshot from Gridwatch suggests that annual demand is around 30GW and contribution (certainly across May, June and July) from French and Dutch ICTs are around 3 and 1GW respectively. I would suggest that this is more than 5%.

I agree that yesterday’s sandwiches in a landfill are last years wheat, but the plastic wrapper they were purchased in, came originally from crude oil that was formed about 80 million years ago. Some of the landfill gas fields I’ve worked on are up to 30 years old, and still producing gas from plastic based rubbish. Just think about what you put in your dustbin, prior to get a whole set of recycle bins.

With regards to charging electric vehicles not everyone will charge their vehicle overnight. For example I often travelled 150 miles to site to work, and an electric vehicle would need to be charged during the day, to enable me to commute home.

I’ve looked back through my PV generation records, and the period from Late October to Late January was typically around 140kWh, ie about 1.5kWh per day. That house and my current house both have underfloor heating and 1.5kWh running a heat pump wouldn’t heat my house. I doubt it would mash the Apocalyptic brew, unless you were just making a single 500ml bottle.

I agree with Mr Chipps in that we all do like to do our bit, but our individual impact is neglible.

I’m all for climate change reversal, as someone will have to measure emissions to prove some of it, and that’s what pays my pension.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

My understanding is that National Grid gives priority to renewable generation and then asks the others to bid to generate, so I would fully expect it to be the highest percentage.

It wasn't the highest percentage 20 years ago - it's a question of building it out, it has to be built before it can bid. The NG bidding system is complicated but the basic problem for fossil fuels is that renewables are now cheaper than them, the drop in prices on offshore wind in particular has been truly spectacular. See this from a government report on energy prices :

(and for comparison Hinkley Point nuclear has been promised £92.50/MWh+inflation, and they're probably going to lose money even at that price)

My point was that we a) don’t have enough capacity to ever get to 100% from renewables and b) Government strategy is to include gas fired CCGT in the mix.

18 years ago we had 0GW from offshore wind, now we have over 10GW, and government recently upped its target from 30GW to 40GW by 2030. These things are changing rapidly.

And I wouldn't make the mistake of saying that government has a strategy, it just wobbles along. Until recently there was a host of coal plants still planned around the world, and in the last few years most of them have been cancelled - because investors can make more money on wind and solar projects. We'll see if those CCGTs actually get built, bearing in mind the chart above and the fact that gas prices are currently going crazy, we're at decade+ highs in the middle of summer, which isn't meant to happen. As you can see from the above, fuel prices account for at least half the cost of CCGT electricity.

I’ve sat sometimes for days on some sites waiting for the Plant to run so that we can test the emissions, mainly because Grid won’t accept the sites bid for its services.

...because they're bidding higher than what other forms of electricity can produce at.

Latest snapshot from Gridwatch suggests that annual demand is around 30GW and contribution (certainly across May, June and July) from French and Dutch ICTs are around 3 and 1GW respectively. I would suggest that this is more than 5%.

My figure was the 2020 average net figure from DUKES, you're looking at gross numbers. The 2020 figure was reduced thanks to Covid19, but even pre-pandemic it was typically only 8-9%.

https://assets.publishing.service.g.../DUKES_2021_Chapter_5_Electricity.pdf#page=12

I agree that yesterday’s sandwiches in a landfill are last years wheat, but the plastic wrapper they were purchased in, came originally from crude oil that was formed about 80 million years ago. Some of the landfill gas fields I’ve worked on are up to 30 years old, and still producing gas from plastic based rubbish. Just think about what you put in your dustbin, prior to get a whole set of recycle bins.

That 30yo plastic is no different to burning the oil in a car engine. Clearly it's not ideal. OTOH, a small amount of plastic may reduce CO2 in other parts of the system - for instance if it preserves sandwiches better so that a delivery is only needed every other day rather than daily. And Plastic is only around 5-6% of hydrocarbon consumption in Europe, a bit more worldwide - it's part of the problem but you have to get it in perspective.

With regards to charging electric vehicles not everyone will charge their vehicle overnight. For example I often travelled 150 miles to site to work, and an electric vehicle would need to be charged during the day, to enable me to commute home.

Sure - but you're the exception. We've talked about this kind of stuff at length over on the electric car thread and I don't want to repeat myself here, but there's a US study which looked at journeys in the real world that concluded 85% of people never travel more than 200 miles in a day, so could charge at home all the time even without a 400-mile-range Tesla. Batteries are a big part of the cost, so what you'll see is something like the approach VW have taken with the ID3, a choice of three batteries giving headline ranges from 210 to 340 miles - the people who need the range will pay the extra cost, but most people won't.

I'm a bit in the same boat - I have a regular journey of 250 miles which is pushing it on a single charge allowing for lower performance in winter etc. I'm not a good candidate for electric. But there's plenty of people for whom current technology works well - a family member was paying £200 in petrol a month on their old car (a long commute plus school run etc), so a deal of £200/month for a Leaf was a no-brainer just on financial grounds. In two years they charged away from home just twice - as much out of curiosity to see how it worked as anything.

I didn't say there would be no charging during the day, but most of it will be at night. And as I say, the Grid seems fairly relaxed about it, electricity consumption is down something like 14% in the last 20 years so there is some slack available.

I’ve looked back through my PV generation records, and the period from Late October to Late January was typically around 140kWh, ie about 1.5kWh per day. That house and my current house both have underfloor heating and 1.5kWh running a heat pump wouldn’t heat my house. I doubt it would mash the Apocalyptic brew, unless you were just making a single 500ml bottle.

It all helps though - and Scotland is hardly the ideal place for solar - wind is better. But in terms of global population, most people tend to live in sunny places - and in hot places, where peak demand happens during the day thanks to air conditioning. Yes it gets more complicated in places like the UK where winter nights are long and demand peaks in winter not summer. But we'll get there, it just means thinking in terms of a mix of different systems rather than a single supply. But that's probably more resilient in the long term anyway.

 

[Gerryjo]

Nobody seems to be mentioning the uncomfortable truth. The only way to reduce climate change long term is to reduce the human population. Compared to that, electric cars, solar power and heat pumps are just the equivalent of rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic!

THANOS

 

[YorkieBrew]

Nobody seems to be mentioning the uncomfortable truth. The only way to reduce climate change long term is to reduce the human population. Compared to that, electric cars, solar power and heat pumps are just the equivalent of rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic!

Ok, you go first...

 

[dad_of_jon]

Time to brew an apocalyptic beer, I think.

which has added to the co2 total? - maybe as a meat eating brewer and a motorist with a gas fired boiler to heat my home I should just top myself?
We have more problems than just focusing on CO2, its the level of consumption x the number of people on the planet.

Planting more trees and greenery is a good way to soak up co2. I do wonder that even if there are less of us around those that remain might consume even more rather than it lead to a reduction in consumption?

I think patrick moore (ex-greanpeace) speaks a lot of common sense most of the time. (no-one's perfect after all)

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Met Office
@metoffice
It's been an exceptionally mild day for most of us and the warmest on record in the UK England, Wales and Scotland have all provisionally broken their previous maximum temperature records with Northern Ireland just 0.2°C shy of their record

 

[Agentgonzo]

Met Office
@metoffice
It's been an exceptionally mild day for most of us and the warmest on record in the UK England, Wales and Scotland have all provisionally broken their previous maximum temperature records with Northern Ireland just 0.2°C shy of their record

View attachment 77732

I couldn't believe it. I walked out of the pub last night at 10:30, in a t-shirt. Mid November

 

[Brew_DD2]

I was at a football match last night in Aberdeen (ko at 1800) wearing just a shirt. For a bit of context, it's right next to the North Sea and often feels like one of the coldest places on earth. Utterly bizarre weather.

 

[Stan's Brew]

Met Office
@metoffice
It's been an exceptionally mild day for most of us and the warmest on record in the UK England, Wales and Scotland have all provisionally broken their previous maximum temperature records with Northern Ireland just 0.2°C shy of their record

View attachment 77732

Imagine if it was like this every year, would never need to fly abroad to get some winter sun

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Imagine if it was like this every year, would never need to fly abroad to get some winter sun

I have a feeling we will be "enjoying" the warmer weather for many years to come.

 

[MrJay83]

The bottom line is we would all (well most of us) like to do our bit to halt or reverse climate change but we don't have the means to do it.

Reverse climate change? Even if you got rid of every human on the planet, the climate will always be changing... As it has since terra gained an atmosphere.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Reverse climate change? Even if you got rid of every human on the planet, the climate will always be changing... As it has since terra gained an atmosphere.

Obviously i meant stop the damage we are doing or at least try to slow it down.

 

[Bosch]

Reverse climate change? Even if you got rid of every human on the planet, the climate will always be changing... As it has since terra gained an atmosphere.

True.
The scary thing is, if we keep going the way we are, food production of staple crops in temperate zones would be impossible.
Some of the mass migrations from Africa to Europe in the last few year weren't just caused by war. A lot were fleeing crop failures caused by drought and high temperatures

 

[MrJay83]

True.
The scary thing is, if we keep going the way we are, food production of staple crops in temperate zones would be impossible.

Did Al Gore tell you that? I'm pretty sure this year was one of the best grain harvests on record.

 

[Jim Brewster]

Didn't Al Gore buy a 9 million dollar mansion on the California ocean front, right after his film warning about imminent sea level rises?

 

[MrJay83]

Obviously i meant stop the damage we are doing or at least try to slow it down.

We already are in my opinion. I believe it is outside of our hands now and other nations need to step up (i.e. China, India, etc.). Ruining the lives of us plebs with extra taxes isn't going to achieve anything but a transfer of wealth.
Don't get me wrong... When hydrogen boilers come out I'll be dead keen for it but there is no way my 120 year old mid terrace house is getting retro fitted for a heatpump and EV charger.