Brexit thread [Poll added]

[foxy]

Its the government who should be embarrassed they lied they are about to find out how little those voters who trusted them think of those lies and how Brexit has turned out when Labour win a super-majority next Thursday.


View attachment 101172

Saturday 28 July 2018

1 - 'The money saved from leaving the EU will result in the NHS getting £350m a week'
One of the most prominent claims made by the Leave campaign was that the UK would take back £350m a week once it had left the EU – with the sum going to the NHS.
The UK Statistics Authority has since said this was a “clear misuse of official statistics” – most notably because the figure did not take into account the money the UK gets back from the EU after paying into the budget.

2 - 'A free-trade deal with the EU will be 'the easiest thing in human history'

3 - ‘Two thirds of British jobs in manufacturing are dependent on demand from Europe’

4 - 'Turkey is going to join the EU and millions of people will flock to the UK'

5 - 'Brexit will lead to Scotland renewing calls for independence'

6 - 'Brexit does not mean the UK will leave the single market'

Full details of all six can be found here

Their source of information is heavily biased, by them.
What I don't understand is the trade deficit. The UK has had a trade deficit with the EU for over 20 years. On top of that there is the 2.5 million GBP (net) that was paid into the coffers of the EU every week so not only losing out on the balance of trade but giving the EU the 2.5 million for the pleasure of doing so!
On the other hand, the UK has a trade surplus with those countries outside of the EU, so what is the benefit of being in the EU?
It's worth taking a look at the top 10 of the world economies by 2050, the UK doesn't come out of it too shabbily, it has to be expected there is going to be a change in the economic order by 2050. It's better to hold your nerve and don't fold to rejoining the EU argument. That is if there is still going to be an EU in 2050

 

[JockyBrewer]

Hubris on Cameron's part.

Annoying considering the way they expertly handled the referendum on electoral reform a few years before.

 

[DaleMC]

What I don't understand is the trade deficit. The UK has had a trade deficit with the EU for over 20 years. On top of that there is the 2.5 million GBP (net) that was paid into the coffers of the EU every week so not only losing out on the balance of trade but giving the EU the 2.5 million for the pleasure of doing so!

Without meaning to be funny, would you expect a surplus from one small island into 27 other countries, with a population some 7 times higher than ours? It's a bit of a silly argument. The access made trade easier in both directions - plenty on here used to be able to buy German and Belgian beers for personal consumption at decent prices. No more. Grit in the gears of trade has seen people that previously exported pivot to domestic markets only - and no small businesses aren't suddenly taking advantage of trade deals further afield because a) it's more difficult to trade the further from home you go and b) it's no where near as easy as single market trade was anyway.

The whole thing is a miserly endeavour that was sold on the basis that you could suddenly pretend that there was a draw bridge and no give and take. And if you look at our replacement red tape on things like procurement and subsidies it's *more* involved than it was. Partly due to new requirements in trade deals and partly because we've always reduced our 'sovereignty' to operate globally, such an amorphous concept. We just now have to employ loads more people to do roles that were previously pooled across 28 countries. So the money saving argument falls down again. At some point the Tories will attempt to recreate the single market by a different name, when it's right there.

The reason it's not gone well is largely because it cannot go well on its own terms.

 

[samale]

Without meaning to be funny, would you expect a surplus from one small island into 27 other countries, with a population some 7 times higher than ours? It's a bit of a silly argument. The access made trade easier in both directions - plenty on here used to be able to buy German and Belgian beers for personal consumption at decent prices. No more. Grit in the gears of trade has seen people that previously exported pivot to domestic markets only - and no small businesses aren't suddenly taking advantage of trade deals further afield because a) it's more difficult to trade the further from home you go and b) it's no where near as easy as single market trade was anyway.

The whole thing is a miserly endeavour that was sold on the basis that you could suddenly pretend that there was a draw bridge and no give and take. And if you look at our replacement red tape on things like procurement and subsidies it's *more* involved than it was. Partly due to new requirements in trade deals and partly because we've always reduced our 'sovereignty' to operate globally, such an amorphous concept. We just now have to employ loads more people to do roles that were previously pooled across 28 countries. So the money saving argument falls down again. At some point the Tories will attempt to recreate the single market by a different name, when it's right there.

The reason it's not gone well is largely because it cannot go well on its own terms.

Nice to hear some common sense

 

[Brew_DD2]

Without meaning to be funny, would you expect a surplus from one small island into 27 other countries, with a population some 7 times higher than ours? It's a bit of a silly argument. The access made trade easier in both directions - plenty on here used to be able to buy German and Belgian beers for personal consumption at decent prices. No more. Grit in the gears of trade has seen people that previously exported pivot to domestic markets only - and no small businesses aren't suddenly taking advantage of trade deals further afield because a) it's more difficult to trade the further from home you go and b) it's no where near as easy as single market trade was anyway.

The whole thing is a miserly endeavour that was sold on the basis that you could suddenly pretend that there was a draw bridge and no give and take. And if you look at our replacement red tape on things like procurement and subsidies it's *more* involved than it was. Partly due to new requirements in trade deals and partly because we've always reduced our 'sovereignty' to operate globally, such an amorphous concept. We just now have to employ loads more people to do roles that were previously pooled across 28 countries. So the money saving argument falls down again. At some point the Tories will attempt to recreate the single market by a different name, when it's right there.

The reason it's not gone well is largely because it cannot go well on its own terms.

This a great post. Full of sensible analysis of why it could never go well, even with the best of intentions.

 

[Agentgonzo]

This a great post. Full of sensible analysis of why it could never go well, even with the best of intentions.

Project Fear!

 

[foxy]

Without meaning to be funny, would you expect a surplus from one small island into 27 other countries, with a population some 7 times higher than ours? It's a bit of a silly argument. The access made trade easier in both directions - plenty on here used to be able to buy German and Belgian beers for personal consumption at decent prices. No more. Grit in the gears of trade has seen people that previously exported pivot to domestic markets only - and no small businesses aren't suddenly taking advantage of trade deals further afield because a) it's more difficult to trade the further from home you go and b) it's no where near as easy as single market trade was anyway.

The whole thing is a miserly endeavour that was sold on the basis that you could suddenly pretend that there was a draw bridge and no give and take. And if you look at our replacement red tape on things like procurement and subsidies it's *more* involved than it was. Partly due to new requirements in trade deals and partly because we've always reduced our 'sovereignty' to operate globally, such an amorphous concept. We just now have to employ loads more people to do roles that were previously pooled across 28 countries. So the money saving argument falls down again. At some point the Tories will attempt to recreate the single market by a different name, when it's right there.

The reason it's not gone well is largely because it cannot go well on its own terms.

Well the UK managed to get a trade surplus with Indonesia, Mexico, America, Japan, Australia, Switzerland Israel plus other non-EU countries with a far greater population than the UK.
Why have German and Belgian beers gone up in price?
Why would you think small businesses would find it more difficult to trade with countries further afield? I am a long way from Europe, Canada, and the Middle East but still found it easy to export, importing is more difficult.
The whole idea is about employing more people in the UK is more people working equates to more tax collected.
To many people think that the UK woes are all about Brexit, The UK has been in decline since 2008 and has never recovered from the GFC. Then there is Covid and the war in the Ukraine. Look at the trouble local councils are finding themselves in, less essential services provided some going bankrupt, and nothing to do with leaving the EU.
I appreciate the demographic age on this forum is 50 plus and are frightened by change but the economic forecast to 2050 paints a positive picture for the UK. It is only to be expected that the UK will be out of the G7 in a new world economic order but will still be in the top 10.

 

[lancon]

Well the UK managed to get a trade surplus with Indonesia, Mexico, America, Japan, Australia, Switzerland Israel plus other non-EU countries with a far greater population than the UK.
Why have German and Belgian beers gone up in price?
Why would you think small businesses would find it more difficult to trade with countries further afield? I am a long way from Europe, Canada, and the Middle East but still found it easy to export, importing is more difficult.

I don't know if you have looked on a map recently but EU countries are much closer to UK than Asia, America &.. And with that becomes ease of trade, ease might not just be in agreements but in cost (its normally cheaper to send things around the corner than across the world).

Many businesses were built up in this country with the EU being part of the business model, and they have now gone out of business as the sunlit uplands didn't have any space for them, and to suggest that they send further afield with all the attendant costs is to show little understanding of SMEs in the UK.

I do appreciate that on your island you have to send your goods a long way due to your neighbours being further, but as you have always had no other choice that will have been built into your business planning from the very beginning.

 

[foxy]

I don't know if you have looked on a map recently but EU countries are much closer to UK than Asia, America &.. And with that becomes ease of trade, ease might not just be in agreements but in cost (its normally cheaper to send things around the corner than across the world).

Many businesses were built up in this country with the EU being part of the business model, and they have now gone out of business as the sunlit uplands didn't have any space for them, and to suggest that they send further afield with all the attendant costs is to show little understanding of SMEs in the UK.

I do appreciate that on your island you have to send your goods a long way due to your neighbours being further, but as you have always had no other choice that will have been built into your business planning from the very beginning.

The costs of transport falls to the buyer, not the seller. The seller has to foot the FOB costs. It doesn't cost that much to send a container of goods across the world.
When the UK joined the common market it wiped out Australia's biggest importer, about 90% of Australian goods went to the UK but instead of sitting around bleating and crying about the loss new markets were found. Exactly what the UK are doing now, it may take a couple of years more to reach a trade surplus (something they couldnt do with the EU) but they will.

 

[lancon]

The costs of transport falls to the buyer, not the seller. The seller has to foot the FOB costs. It doesn't cost that much to send a container of goods across the world.
When the UK joined the common market it wiped out Australia's biggest importer, about 90% of Australian goods went to the UK but instead of sitting around bleating and crying about the loss new markets were found. Exactly what the UK are doing now, it may take a couple of years more to reach a trade surplus (something they couldnt do with the EU) but they will.

Sending fresh food/livestock in a container is not normally recommended.
And I think you'll find that if you just check, (took me seconds on Google) that there was a big hit to Australia and New Zealand which caused quite a problem. Acrimonious (bleating?) one of the terms used in the Australian report.
While things may have improved in Australia now it took some time and I would guess quite a few businesses went under, probably eaten up by larger companies more able to cope with the financial duress.

 

[foxy]

Sending fresh food/livestock in a container is not normally recommended.
And I think you'll find that if you just check, (took me seconds on Google) that there was a big hit to Australia and New Zealand which caused quite a problem. Acrimonious (bleating?) one of the terms used in the Australian report.
While things may have improved in Australia now it took some time and I would guess quite a few businesses went under, probably eaten up by larger companies more able to cope with the financial duress.

Businesses come and go all the time. Look at all the UK manufacturing plants there were before the unions forced them to relocate elsewhere or close altogether. I can't see the UK exporting livestock or other goods it only can produce 50% of the nation's needs.

 

[old dog new tricks]

Businesses come and go all the time. Look at all the UK manufacturing plants there were before the unions forced them to relocate elsewhere or close altogether. I can't see the UK exporting livestock or other goods it only can produce 50% of the nation's needs.

right stab vest and flak jacket on before i get a kicking here, I take offence with the statement that unions forced manufacturing to close or relocate, that is simply not true and right wing propaganda, No Trade Union has ever had the legal powers to close (safety related excluded) that is function of the management. Many industries were poorly managed and lacked medium to long term planning. A large part of the issue has been this country's poor records of supporting industry, instead we have had generations of politicians going to war with unions, spending more money to break strikes and crush workers rights that it would have taken to settle the issues. This could have been so different if they had worked with and not against trade unions and governments had backed the right industry at the right time. Even today this still happens China is pouring huge amount of money into battery technology and electric vehicles, look at the effect they are world leaders.
Look to the UK we don't even make our own wind turbines we import them from Europe, as out short sighted government is just waking up to this market 20 years too late.
Sorry to claim Brexit has not affected UK business is just not true, I worked for Rolls Royce at the time, Brexit had a major impact to protect their interest a large part of the overhaul and maintenance programmes were moved to Germany to ensure they were not affected. There will be many other examples I lived this one first hand and know it to be true.
Fertiliser and weedkiller and various other products used in agriculture, yes the war in Ukraine rocketed the prices but look but they were already rising post Brexit, whatever way you cut it transporting hundreds of tonnes of goods from the other side of the world as opposed to across the channel raises costs that have to be passe don to consumer.
Ironically in the food market the German power houses Aldi and Lidl have not been affected by the same extent as the other big supermarkets, but this has been cited as their strategy to buy locally and not import where possible.
The biggest damage Brexit did tho was allowing the shambolic Tory government to rewrite all the European laws into UK law , this gave these clown the power to undo decades of workers rights, run roughshot over the Good Friday Agreement and totally undermine devolution in Scotland - Just look at the Internal Markets Act one of the most misused pieces of legislation ever that tramples over devolved powers.
Nearly all of the employment, human rights, safety and environmental legislation had been adopted from EU, many are still being updated and made into UK law and so far none have been an improvement.

 

[lancon]

Businesses come and go all the time. Look at all the UK manufacturing plants there were before the unions forced them to relocate elsewhere or close altogether. I can't see the UK exporting livestock or other goods it only can produce 50% of the nation's needs.

Firstly you are quite happy to acknowledge that unions forced companies to relocate, (citations please) but shrug of shoulders when Brexit raised.
As regards livestock or other goods it's amazing what you can't see from over there but are quite happy to knowingly expound.