WW3

[Chippy_Tea]

Are you a Russian troll ?

Why do you ask that was my question not valid?

 

[Chippy_Tea]

It's just another sign of Putin's

And when he thinks his back is to the wall do you think he will give up or escalate?

 

[Northern_Brewer]

And when he thinks his back is to the wall do you think he will give up or escalate?

What do you think "Putin's back to the wall" would look like? We've had all these red lines like not entering Russian territory that have turned out to be empty threats, and Ukraine is not going to do anything that would genuinely threaten Putin in the way that Wagner did. Putin cares about Number One and nobody else, so if a few 100k of his fellow countrymen die, that doesn't matter to him.

So what does his "back to the wall" look like?

 

[Laner]

So what does his "back to the wall" look like?

A BIG mushroom cloud

 

[old dog new tricks]

And when he thinks his back is to the wall do you think he will give up or escalate?

If he looks like pushing the button on a nuclear response then my guess would be that one of his own team would take him out as that is a point of no return and the war with Ukraine has exposed the weakness of the once mighty Russian military, with technology and firepower the west possess any sane military commander would look to deescalate.

Once the long range ordinance reaches those areas in Russia that have until now been isolated public confidence will start to erode, remember the former USSR (now Ukraine) is one of the few who have the seen the effects of a nuclear incident on their shores, this was drop in the ocean compared the weapons systems we hold nowadays. As mad a Putin is I doubt those about him will allow the horrors of a nuclear conflict on their country and people, its widely accepted that use of nuclear weapons will lead to mutually assured destruction.

The only potential bump in the road is what happens when the inevitable fall out between Putin and Trump happens, all bets are off when you have 2 lunatics in the hot seats

 

[Chippy_Tea]

What do you think "Putin's back to the wall" would look like? We've had all these red lines like not entering Russian territory that have turned out to be empty threats, and Ukraine is not going to do anything that would genuinely threaten Putin in the way that Wagner did. Putin cares about Number One and nobody else, so if a few 100k of his fellow countrymen die, that doesn't matter to him.

So what does his "back to the wall" look like?

You seem to be an expert on Putin and how he will protect Russia from our interference in the war I will leave it to your imagination at what stage Putin will decide we have overstepped the mark by allowing Ukraine to use these long range missiles, I hope you are wrong and Putin will not use nukes but it's a big gamble now we have said it's ok to use them.

 

[Brew_DD2]

Nuking anywhere in Ukraine would be a very stupid move, and the beginning of the end of Putin. Putin isn't stupid.

Not convinced there are any countries with that would be able to utilise their nuclear warheads without The States being aware of it and acting accordingly.

Even China hasn't been daft enough to go into Taiwan. I'm not sure how long that will be the case with a non-interventionist in The White House.

 

[Rodcx500z]

Ask yourself a question, do you have any control over the start of ww3 regardless of who fires first, no, so just just keep doing your daily grind and above all else keep brewing and drinking worrying is not good.

 

[Stu]

As an aside, these 180 mile missiles have been completely rubbish.

I don't even know why they bother. Even Ukraine admitted that 5 were taken out before they even made it and the other one partially made it causing a fire.

Both sides have anti-missile technology. The only way Russia made them stick the other night was because they threw in 300 at once and a dozen or so made their target.

 

[hoppyscotty]

The general consensus from alot of the 'geopolitical experts and commentators' I've been watching and listening to over recent weeks is that alot of fluff and bluster from Putin...in all liklihood. We need to call his bluff. His plan is not to stop at Ukraine and he needs 100% of Ukraine so any negotiation made to call a halt to fighting now by ceding a chunk of Ukraine to him will be nothing but delaying tactics to give him some breathing space to regroup, re-arm before coming back for the rest...just as he did when we effectively ceded Crimea ignoring lessons of the past that giving into these people is not effective. And he wont stop at Ukraine...he has his eyes firmly set on all the ex-soviet nations, including Poland, so he needs to be stopped. And no point in short term-ism of dealing with Putin...he has a long list of other despots waiting in the wings with the same objectives. This is about reclaiming the physical land boarders and barriers around Russia to protect their boarders from a ground invasion. Russia has no physical features like mountain ranges so its thousands of miles long boarder is all penetrable and impossible to defend. He needs a ring of physical geographical and geological features to protect his boarders and for that he needs all the ex-soviet nations - yes its old school soviet era land invasion thinking, but that is their thinking and another indicator as to how stuck in the past they are - dangerously so. So we need to call his bluff or we are looking at the next few decades of constant conflict in that region that will keep racking up the body count and drawing more and more upon our resources. Having said that he is racking up some body count too and even Putin doesn't have an unlimited supply of bodies to keep throwing at the issue. He's already increased the drafting age and pulled in the North Koreans for some canon fodder.

In any case the capability of the Russian army and military has been massively over estimated constantly and at every test it's been proven to be not very good to put it mildly - in fact pretty embarrassing for the Russians. If it wasn't for sheer weight of number of bodies Putin has to throw at the war with a strategy of long drawn out war of attrition it would have been over months ago. So there is no reason to assume his nuclear arsenal is anywhere near 100% operational and at a state of readiness. Of course it only takes one warhead to get through, but any move to use Nukes by Russia will be a huge mistake and Putin knows it so he's not quite as trigger happy as everyone is fearing...that is what he's banking on...though I don't doubt he's capable of giving the order.

The level of corruption at every level of the Russian government is such that pretty much 100% of the military budget has been embezzled by those in charge to fund their lavish lifestyles, yachts in Monaco, Properties in London and all over the world etc. and there has been zero budget available for investment in military equipment both in terms of maintenance of existing equipment, training and ongoing development and improvement of kit since the downfall of the USSR. So its not unreasonable to assume that this has happened with their nuclear arsenal too and the chances are his nukes are just as dilapidated as the rest of his military hardware. And we have seen with the recent Royal Navy failed Trident test that these missile systems are very complicated and very maintenance hungry and part of the reason we maintain such a large arsenal with huge levels of apparent overkill is to account for a certain proportion of the missiles failing when fired. If we have, say a 30% failure rate of our missiles, then Russias is more likely to be 80%+. It is thought that the failure rate of his conventional cruise missiles fired in the war so far is upto about 80%...pretty terrible really.

Anyway the threat of WW3 will not come from Russia..it's China. China is watching with interest as it plans its invasion of Taiwan. So if the western alliances put up a strong coherent response to Russia then it makes the Taiwan invasion less likely and push their invasion ambitions out. If we appear weak and fragmented then that might just embolden the Chinese to move quicker.

We can see the current 'axis of evil' between Russia, Iran and its proxies, and China, and I guess North Korea too to a lesser extent. It is no coincidence that we have Russia and Hamas all kicking off at the same time...all these events are linked and driven by one strategy.

 

[klaus]

Do you think putin ever thinks about his own demise (aka death)?
Will it be "peaceful" whilst snoozing in his bed in the Kremlin or one of his palaces, or will one of his confidants despatch him in good old soviet fashion?
As for Ukraine, the Ukrainian people, I suspect it will be the west who betray them, nobody is really willing to say the word. At least Biden knows who is playing games and got in there first (albeit late in the day) before trump has a word with putin and agrees respective spheres of influence.
The Ribbentrop-Molotov agreement comes to mind...

 

[.Peter.]

Why do you ask that was my question not valid?

was mine not ?

 

[nidge]

Are you a Russian troll ?

HET

 

[Bjorn Toulouse]

@hoppyscotty. Pretty good analysis. A couple of things omitted though.
Russian economy is set to implode at the tail end of next year perhaps start of 2026.
Putin is terrified of drafting the middle class, it wont happen.
Ukraine is still fighting with one hand tied behind her back.
EU is still buying Russian oil google shadow fleet.
Ukraine will (or maybe has) the ability to build a dirty bomb.
The Russian fleet can't sail because the Ukrainians keep sinking their ships.
Their air force can't fly over Ukraine because they keep getting shot down.
Russian tactics and battle field communications are akin to WW1 hence the incredible losses on a daily basis.

Russia is so week it wont go near Poland, Poland alone would wipe the floor with the Russian army.
Oh and France. The only strong country that does not share a boarder with Russia.

What Ukraine needs is support.
More anti missile defences to protect civilians and the power grid.
British and French troops on the ground? Not at the front line but at the rear to free up troops for the front. Ukraine could/would have won this war if it were not the lack of supplies when they needed it, shame.

Putin is not in a good place but he probably doesn't know it yet. As such he will still promote Russia as the Great superpower. To prove it he will keep targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure. A war of attrition is no longer in Putin's best interests. How humiliating to have to go cap in hand to North Korea for troops because he has used.

On a side. Orders for the new Russian air defence systems have dried up after seeing them in action. Russian jet orders have dried up, wonder why.

 

[Omega]

And when he thinks his back is to the wall do you think he will give up or escalate?

Escalate - the only way for both sides is to escalate. This reduces the space to maneuvre, someone miscalculates the other and... boom . It takes two to have a fight, both sides are wrong

 

[old dog new tricks]

The news that Russia had amended the legal justification for the use of Nuclear weapons, effectively giving Putin a free hand to use them if he claims Russian sovereignty is being threatened( about as vague as you get). This may just be a bluff but who knows with this crack pot.

Also just announced the US Embassy in Kiev closed after a specific threat of significant air attack, that is blatant move to provoke the US in the tit for tat squabble about long range missiles. Anti personnel mines is worrying they are horrific and non discriminant, only saving grace is the US mines at battery powered and have a set life span unlike the old mechanical systems that last for years.

Also reports of more sub sea attacks trying to cripple infrastructure yet again!

As said above the Russian economy is set to fail and that places a huge strain on the war effort, this is forcing Putin into a corner he knows this cant keep going my bet is he is relying on Trump to pull funding and force a cease fire, if not he will make one final push and go for it.

The US position is key to all of this as Biden tries to make it harder for Trump to pull out completely, but that is pushing Putin further against the wall.

As said Putin has tried to insulate his reasonably wealthy middle class the idea of even the odd missile raining down on them will shatter the illusion that Putin will protect them, that is a big problem if he loses support internally then he becomes vulnerable and unstable

 

[Bjorn Toulouse]

One other thing. These losses are from a scratch Ukrainian army using NATO cast offs.

 

[Bjorn Toulouse]

Russia will not use nuclear weapons. The whole point of the invasion was to steal Ukraine resources. If Europe properly supports Ukraine Russia will find some way to get out in the next year to a year and a half, Obviously after teaching the Nazi regime in Ukraine a lesson. Then they can get back to what they do best. Making money and lining their own pockets.

Europe would do well in supporting Ukraine With or without the Americans. Russia would be a spent force, it practically is already. It would also rebalance global power.

 

[old dog new tricks]

Totally agree Europe needs to stand strong as it directly affects us.

Time for democracy us China as the buffer to influence Russia that Nuclear is a very BAD idea!

Don't underestimate the personal aspect Putin thinks he is God giving him a bloody nose may put him back in his box or given years of thinking he is all powerful and untouchable (we the west helped to foster this letting him take Crimea and the like) a wounded animal can be dangerous and not act rationally.

This is very much a fluid space

 

[Chippy_Tea]

keep brewing and drinking worrying is not good.

I am not worried as there is nothing we can do about it.