UK employment falls by biggest amount in over a decade.

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Chippy_Tea

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These figures wont come as a surprise to most but the worry as the analysts have said is unemployment will worsen as furlough comes to an end and they are warning of a looming "cliff-edge" and a "lull before the storm".

Will government step in again if unemployment looks like it could get out of control or will they let it happen and deal with the consequences.




Employment in the UK fell by the largest amount in over a decade between April and June, official figures show.

The number of people in work decreased by 220,000 on the quarter, said the Office for National Statistics.

This was the largest quarterly decrease since May to July 2009, the depths of the financial crisis.

The youngest workers, oldest workers and those in manual occupations were the worst hit during the pandemic, the ONS added.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson said some parts of the economy were "showing great resilience", but added: "Clearly there are going to be bumpy months ahead and a long, long way to go."

The figures do not include the millions of people who are furloughed, those on zero-hours contracts but not getting shifts, or people on temporary unpaid leave from a job, as they still count as employed.

As such, they do not capture the full impact of the pandemic. Similarly, the UK unemployment rate was estimated at 3.9%, largely unchanged on the year and the previous quarter.

Read in full - UK employment falls by biggest amount in a decade

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Jonathan Athow, deputy national statistician at the ONS, said: "The groups of people most affected are younger workers, 24 and under, or older workers and those in more routine or less skilled jobs.

"This is concerning, as it's harder for these groups to find a new job or get into a job as easily as other workers."

How bad is this likely to get?

The UK economy has been battered by the coronavirus pandemic, but unemployment has not surged as much as feared because large numbers of firms have furloughed staff.

However, analysts said unemployment was set to worsen in coming months as the scheme wound down, warning of a looming "cliff-edge" and a "lull before the storm".




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From restaurants to retailers, many UK businesses are already planning job cuts with 140,000 redundancies announced in June alone.

According to the ONS, the number of average hours worked continued to fall in April-June, reaching record lows both on the year and on the quarter.

The number of people claiming universal credit - a benefit for those on low pay as well as unemployed people - rose to 2.7 million in July, up by 117% since March.
 
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And that doesn't include the effect of Brexit which will hammer different sectors (e.g. manufacturing and transport).

Better get brewing, people, stockpiles are the way forward.
 
Will government step in again if unemployment looks like it could get out of control or will they let it happen and deal with the consequences.

Sadly I suspect the latter purely for financial reasons. But there’ll be some smoke and mirrors to cover it up.

The number of people claiming universal credit - a benefit for those on low pay as well as unemployed people - rose to 2.7 million in July, up by 117% since March.

This is slightly misleading. If a claimant is in receipt of a “legacy benefit” (ESA, JSA etc.) and has a change of circumstance (eg. They’ve moved house or their partner has moved in/out etc.) this will trigger a UC change over. We used to be able to stop it if the claimant was in receipt of Severe Disability Premium (usually if they were receiving ESA & PIP together) as UC couldn’t handle the SDP and the claimant would be worse off financially. This has now changed and it can be bolted on.
 

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