The Coronavirus thread.

[Cheshire Cat]

I was reading about BiF yesterday. I wonder why they've got such a high infection rate considering it's so remote. What's it like there, chippy? Lot's of second homers from London?

Barrow second homers you've got to be joking MQ. Industrial town not the Lake District.

 

[Leon103]

I was reading about BiF yesterday. I wonder why they've got such a high infection rate considering it's so remote. What's it like there, chippy? Lot's of second homers from London?

It's coming in on the wind

 

[MyQul]

Barrow second homers you've got to be joking MQ. Industrial town not the Lake District.

Tbh, I've never really been anywhere but Cornwall as I have rellies there.

 

[MyQul]

It's coming in on the wind

An ill wind!

 

[Northern_Brewer]

There are 1,238 confirmed cases in Southwark, out of a local population of 317,256

In Southwark there were 201 coronavirus-related deaths up to the 1 May. In this area 42% of all deaths involved coronavirus between 29 Feb and 1 May


There are 490 confirmed cases in Kingston upon Thames, out of a local population of 175,470

In Kingston upon Thames there were 96 coronavirus-related deaths up to the 1 May. In this area 27% of all deaths involved coronavirus between 29 Feb and 1 May

So 1 case in 256 Southwarkians compared to 1 in 358 Kingstonites. Not so different really once you consider variations in case reporting, testing, etc even before you get onto demographics factors - Kingston is 3.3% black versus 25% of Southwark. That difference in itself could be enough to explain the difference as black people are more likely to get Covid severely enough to show up in the health system.

 

[MyQul]

So 1 case in 256 Southwarkians compared to 1 in 358 Kingstonites. Not so different really once you consider variations in case reporting, testing, etc even before you get onto demographics factors - Kingston is 3.3% black versus 25% of Southwark. That difference in itself could be enough to explain the difference as black people are more likely to get Covid severely enough to show up in the health system.

This is also something else I was talking to Mrs MQ about.

Could also be population density. I dont know the figures but you only have to walk around the two areas to see the difference

 

[obscure]

Problem is that if it gets into a cars home, prison, or any kind of large institution it can be really difficult to stamp out, case in point the outbreak on Skye.

Also a high number of cases in a borough in London is arguably far more worrying than in a larger county.

“There are 1,808 confirmed cases in Oxfordshire, out of a local population of 687,524

In Oxfordshire there were 389 coronavirus-related deaths up to the 1 May. In this area 26% of all deaths involved coronavirus between 29 Feb and 1 May“

Which sounds like a lot but Oxfordshire is 1000 square miles, the example given of Southwark by MrQual is 11.14 square miles

 

[Northern_Brewer]

I was reading about BiF yesterday. I wonder why they've got such a high infection rate considering it's so remote. What's it like there, chippy? Lot's of second homers from London?

Well remoteness can lead to a false sense of security, so people might be less careful as they think pandemics are something that happens to other people.

Also it's a shipbuilding town that's largely dependent on one big employer (building nuclear submarines) so I imagine a lot of the town end up mixing through that one shipyard.

And even if there's no particularly cause - *somewhere* will end up top of that league table, if only through random bad luck.

As for tradesmen - one thing in their favour is that mixing outdoors seems to be far less hazardous than mixing indoors, and quietly chatting or just hanging our seems to be less dangerous than situations where there's lots of touching or aerosol production (like singing, gyms etc).

 

[MyQul]

So 1 case in 256 Southwarkians compared to 1 in 358 Kingstonites. Not so different really once you consider variations in case reporting, testing, etc even before you get onto demographics factors - Kingston is 3.3% black versus 25% of Southwark. That difference in itself could be enough to explain the difference as black people are more likely to get Covid severely enough to show up in the health system.

Another thing that may or may not be a factor and that wont show up in any stats or figures is that the people in Kingston are a lot more careful to avoid one another when out and about than they are in Southwark. In Kingston people make room for one another on the pavements, walk in the roads to avoid one another, stop and let other peope pass by etc. In Southwark people act as if they've never heard of coronavirus

 

[Chippy_Tea]

I was reading about BiF yesterday. I wonder why they've got such a high infection rate considering it's so remote. What's it like there, chippy? Lot's of second homers from London?

I don't think there will be many Londoners setting up a second home here

 

[MyQul]

I don't think there will be many Londoners setting up a second home here

Looks like some of the worse parts of Tower hamlets (minus all the cool asian shops). Well, at least they can escape to the lake district

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Barrow second homers you've got to be joking MQ. Industrial town not the Lake District.

Its an industrial town but many of the industries are long gone the shipyard used to employ 35,000 back in the day but by the late seventies early eighties it was down to 14,500 i would be surprised if its much more than 5,000 today, the end of the cold war in 1989 lead to may thousands of employees being made redundant, i was one of them though i managed to stay until the mid nineties before i got the bullet.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Looks like some of the worse parts of Tower hamlets (minus all the cool asian shops). Well, at least they can escape to the lake district

But that would mean them leaving McD's the bookies and pubs.






Only joking

 

[VW911]

I've just seen a letter from the SouthWest Ambulance Trust, sent to ambulance drivers, Paramedics, First Responders, etc. The peak here (SW, obviously) isn't expected until 2 - 3 weeks time. We've been relatively lucky 'til now, but I can see REAL trouble ahead...

...BoJo seems to only be bothered about London and the Home Counties...

 

[MyQul]

But that would mean them leaving McD's the bookies and pubs.






Only joking

Three things which are currently shut. So they've no choice but to go to the lake district

 

[Northern_Brewer]

Another thing that may or may not be a factor and that wont show up in any stats or figures is that the people in Kingston are a lot more careful to avoid one another when out and about than they are in Southwark. In Kingston people make room for one another on the pavements, walk in the roads to avoid one another, stop and let other peope pass by etc. In Southwark people act as if they've never heard of coronavirus

To be fair, although it's something that feels important because it's something we can control, it probably doesn't make a huge difference when out on the street. I'd still contend that 1 in 250 vs 1 in 350 is not such a huge difference to worry about, I suspect it would probably disappear once you adjust for demographics.

 

[MyQul]

...BoJo seems to only be bothered about London and the Home Counties...

And what's wrong with that? *ducks*

 

[MyQul]

To be fair, although it's something that feels important because it's something we can control, it probably doesn't make a huge difference when out on the street. I'd still contend that 1 in 250 vs 1 in 350 is not such a huge difference to worry about, I suspect it would probably disappear once you adjust for demographics.

Probably, and I understand the point about outdoors vs indoors. But the attitude then transfers to indoor places like shops and supermarkets. e.g. I had a pensioner standing too close to me when queuing in ASDA the other day. So I told her she had to stand 2m away and she replied by saying, 'oh it doesnt matter, you wont get it'. People are definately far to close to one another when moving around shops and supermarkets in Southwark, and hell will freeze over before I get on a bus around here

 

[Northern_Brewer]

I had a pensioner standing too close to me when queuing in ASDA the other day. So I told her she had to stand 2m away and she replied by saying, 'oh it doesnt matter, you wont get it'.

To which the answer is "Actually I've probably got it as my wife and kids have just tested positive, I was getting some supplies in before isolating ourselves.<cough>".

Still, Darwin will catch up with folk like that, sadly.

Interesting going to the big supermarket last night, it was noticeably busier than 3 weeks previously but shelves looked more or less back to normal. Still devastation on the flour shelves but they did have 3.5kg bags of bread flour (at £2/kg!) and some more specialist bread flours like wholemeal etc, but no bread yeast and eg some of the cake ingredients had been hammmered. Bit surprised the till guy didn't have a mask, and staff in general were a little sloppier about distancing etc (but can cut them some slack at end of shift).

 

[MyQul]

To which the answer is "Actually I've probably got it as my wife and kids have just tested positive, I was getting some supplies in before isolating ourselves.<cough>".

I didnt think of that at the time.I was just trying to get out of their as fast as possible

Still devastation on the flour shelves but they did have 3.5kg bags of bread flour (at £2/kg!) and some more specialist bread flours like wholemeal etc, but no bread yeast and eg some of the cake ingredients had been hammmered

Plenty of bread on the shelves so I'm guessing families are using baking as an activity to do with the kids. I buy bicarbonate of soda as an electrolyte suppliment for fasting and even that's in short supply on the shelves