Jeremy Corbyn

[Covrich]

Implied probability of Tory most seats is 93%, Implied probability of Tory government is 83%

these are down about 4 ticks from last week.

 

[MyQul]

Nobody thought we would Vote to Leave the EU. Nobody thought Trump would be the president of the USA. I say no more . If he dumped some of the ******s who hang on to him like mating frogs, Abbott for instance and got a decent backing from is own party he could be your next prime minister. If he did become the next resident of No 10, you watch all the ****s come crawling back to the fold. The biggest amount propaganda about him has come from diabolical underhand media reporting its time there was some restictions put on some of them (the BBC is one).

Absolutely. As soon as there is a sniff of power they'll be re-inventing history and telling all and sundry that they were really backing Corbyn to the hilt

 

[dad_of_jon]

I don't really know why people are getting so worked up about a TV debate. Just another Americanism that has crept onto these shores. We managed for years without TV debates, now suddenly they're the be all and end all.

I can read the manifestos, chat to local politicians who come round knocking on doors and watch and listen to endless interviews from politicians of all colours on TV and radio over a period of weeks. I don't need an hour of people shouting over one another to make my mind up.

I think tv debates are a broadcasters wet dream. it's political entertainment/theatre.

Because i'm in the Gower constituency where conservatives won by 27 votes we've been inundated with crap through the letterbox.

Guess what I've learned - one of the candidates had a photo opportunity by a pothole that they arranged to get filled in. - shame about the other 3000 in the area, still by the year 2525 (if man is still alive :lol:) they might all be filled in.

I also learn that according to the conservative leaflet they are going to ensure the oap's pension will increase in line with wages or inflation (a.k.a. the triple lock and the 2.5 goes).

winter fuel payments will be made to those who need them most (a.k.a. winter fuel means testing) etc. etc. and the care thingy and your house.

Now as these effect pensioners and i'm close to being able to take my pension you'd think I wouldn't vote for that, but I think there needs to be fairness across the whole of society and at present all the pensioners I know are comfortably well off. Benefits should be targeted to those who need them most - although putting in a system to manage this may cost as much to administer as it would save!

It is easier however to spend money you don't have, run up a big bill and ruin the economy leaving it for others to fix than run it well, so for me its who'll be sensible with this rather than promising freebies for all!

 

[Godsdog]

im not a fan of these leader tv debates,to me its a adoption of the American car crash political debates and serves little purpose of being properly informative to the electorate.Much rather a quiet one on one with a decent political analyst(have we got any left?)that said by TM ducking it tonight its a bit like the snakes and ladders game,corbyn has gone up a few wrungs and may has slid right down to the snakes tail massively.if one thing the electorate wont stand for is hiding behind their mandate and not having the balls to stand up and defend it.she will still win but its gonna be a lot closer than she thought it would be

 

[JFB]

I don't really know why people are getting so worked up about a TV debate. Just another Americanism that has crept onto these shores. We managed for years without TV debates, now suddenly they're the be all and end all.

I can read the manifestos, chat to local politicians who come round knocking on doors and watch and listen to endless interviews from politicians of all colours on TV and radio over a period of weeks. I don't need an hour of people shouting over one another to make my mind up.

I'm 41 years old and have never had a politician knock on my door or have seen one to chat to, I pray for the day Richard Benyon comes knocking at my door..(I don't rent so that probably won't happen:lol:)

 

[Godsdog]

I'm 41 years old and have never had a politician knock on my door or have seen one to chat to, I pray for the day Richard Benyon comes knocking at my door..(I don't rent so that probably happen:lol:)

I have and his name is Tom Watson my local mp and deputy leader of the labour party,hes been on social media this week throwing himself at unsocial activitys by the local youth in our area,funny how they are very vocal and active when they are after your vote,showed him the front door hes only one ambition and that's to succeed corbyn

 

[JFB]

I have and his name is Tom Watson my local mp and deputy leader of the labour party,hes been on social media this week throwing himself at unsocial activitys by the local youth in our area,funny how they are very vocal and active when they are after your vote,showed him the front door hes only one ambition and that's to succeed corbyn

I just find it a bit rich that may wasn't on the debate because she was busy talking to "real people" when the only chance I seem to here whats going on is on TV or radio.
My brother in law has lived in maidenhead for15 years now in the same flat above a shop and he's still waiting for her to come a knocking..

 

[shepp]

Considering the BBC audience came across as a bunch of Momentum supporters, which is quite predictable for the BBC.
The best thing May could have done was stay away, it would have been a complete hatchet job.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Looks like (according to some polls) people are moving to Labour i hope Mrs Maybe is regretting not taking part last night.



Latest updates from senior elections and political analyst Peter Barnes

31 May update: How close is the gap now?

After their striking seat projection published last night, YouGov has a new poll this evening which has the narrowest gap between the main two parties so far during the campaign. It has the Conservatives on 42% and Labour on 39% - their highest rating in any poll since 2014.
It's not all good news for Labour though. Kantar Public also published a poll on Wednesday with a slightly increased Conservative lead compared to their previous poll. They now have the Conservatives on 43% and Labour on 33%.
Its not the only company which still shows a large gap. In fact, it's more than 10% according to ICM and ComRes.
The main reason for this disparity is the different ways that the pollsters estimate turnout.
Polling companies are sometimes accused of "herding" - manipulating their figures so they all say the same thing. Nobody could accuse them of that at this election. If anything, the differences have become more stark as we approach election day.
BBC News.

 

[Covrich]

I agree May skipping the debates isn't good but surley you realise Corbyn taking the last minute to go on is just a bit of spin. It works because it gives him the moral high ground and people are gulible to forget he was not going to do it just before..

In all seriousness to me Corbyn seems like a genuinely good guy to me.. I like a lot of what he says and stands for, It may be a perception thing but I worry about his toughness in tough situations though and what also worries me is he will get into bet with jimmy crankie in a hung parliment :sick: so if he is going to win it better be outright..

Interesting that there has been a few point drifts on the odds but traders are not believing the mass drift the polls suggest.. Never traded politics before but I was going to attempt it, too late now I think.

 

[Covrich]

Looks like (according to some polls) people are moving to Labour i hope Mrs Maybe is regretting not taking part last night.



Latest updates from senior elections and political analyst Peter Barnes

31 May update: How close is the gap now?

After their striking seat projection published last night, YouGov has a new poll this evening which has the narrowest gap between the main two parties so far during the campaign. It has the Conservatives on 42% and Labour on 39% - their highest rating in any poll since 2014.
It's not all good news for Labour though. Kantar Public also published a poll on Wednesday with a slightly increased Conservative lead compared to their previous poll. They now have the Conservatives on 43% and Labour on 33%.
Its not the only company which still shows a large gap. In fact, it's more than 10% according to ICM and ComRes.
The main reason for this disparity is the different ways that the pollsters estimate turnout.
Polling companies are sometimes accused of "herding" - manipulating their figures so they all say the same thing. Nobody could accuse them of that at this election. If anything, the differences have become more stark as we approach election day.
BBC News.

Myself and a work colleague are members of yougov panels. Last GE he filled in teh surveys but everytime he put he was voting for UKIP it used to close him out and say he wasn't eligible.. so I used to always put in opposing info like voting for labour and it used to go through fine..

Yougov populuslive and newvista all provide these political polls but they often only seem to want (and pay) people with certain POV

In other words while they may be a little bit accurate they are also bent.

 

[Vambrace]

Hopefully live TV debates like that will be stopped in future. What next, massive rallies with thousands of balloons being dropped, cheer leaders and pop stars? There's not that much dignity left in politics but we don't need to actively force its degeneration.

 

[pms67]

Good old Jeremy 😁

I would have him PM all day long,May is Thatchers secrect demon child

 

[shepp]

I would have him PM all day long,May is Thatchers secrect demon child

I think in normal circumstances we could suffer a term of far left fantasy economics.
But tie this in with the instability of Brexit, the migrant crisis (Corbyn has the characteristic left wing, pro islam / terrorism fetish) so he will let in Merkels special friends by the tens of thousands.
He will destroy any chance of this country coming through this period unscathed.
He is basically promising people loads of free s**t, that he will be unable to fund and people are too daft or self centred to give a s**t.
That's why he gets the young vote, they are used to being funded by someone else, so taking is their most natural reflex. Finding the money to cover the funding has been supplied by parents so they live in a false reality.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

It's been a long time since I was motivated enough to get my lazy arse to the Polling station, I will be voting this time, I like you think he is a decent bloke and now people have seen him in person so to speak I think more will be motivated.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

I think in normal circumstances we could suffer a term of far left fantasy economics.
But tie this in with the instability of Brexit, the migrant crisis (Corbyn has the characteristic left wing, pro islam / terrorism fetish) so he will let in Merkels special friends by the tens of thousands.
He will destroy any chance of this country coming through this period unscathed.
He is basically promising people loads of free s**t, that he will be unable to fund and people are too daft or self centred to give a s**t.
That's why he gets the young vote, they are used to being funded by someone else, so taking is their most natural reflex. Finding the money to cover the funding has been supplied by parents so they live in a false reality.

It's not a one man show and the fact he has sceptics in his own party will keep him in check, he has explained how things will be funded and to say the only reason young voters will vote Labour is because they will get handouts is ridiculous.

 

[shepp]

It's not a one man show and the fact he has sceptics in his own party will keep him in check, he has explained how things will be funded and to say the only reason young voters will vote Lacour is because theu will get handouts is ridiculous.

I actually trust him more that a lot of those around him, especially that fat hypocrite pig Abbot.
There are a lot of open borders / feminist types on his side of the Labour party and he will have to make concessions to appease them to get them on side to pass bills through parliament.

 

[pms67]

It doesn't really matter to me how Jeremy is,the Tory party are a horrible,horrible lot and I would vote for anyone but them,the fact he is coming across as decent is a bonus,as he is the only possible threat to this cretinous lot my vote will go to him

 

[geetee]

I just find it a bit rich that may wasn't on the debate because she was busy talking to "real people" when the only chance I seem to here whats going on is on TV or radio.
My brother in law has lived in maidenhead for15 years now in the same flat above a shop and he's still waiting for her to come a knocking..

Theresa May came to North Shields about two weeks ago, booked a hall for a private "kids party" and then held a rally for Conservatives only to hear what they wanted to hear.

NO ONE else allowed, no criticism and no questioning so much for talking to the real people ! They even had bouncers to keep the public out

 

[shepp]

The problem is the left have a very nasty and aggressive, vocal mob who are far too politicised and emotive to deal with. So it would be self defeating for any body to try, May would just be on a hiding to nothing if she tried to converse with them. They are incapable of listening to anything outside their narrow world view.
They were even at the TV debate last night even, how the mob got through are questions the BBC need to answer.
Aggression, violence and socialism have always gone hand in hand, you can see it all over America right now on university campuses, they a bullying anybody who does not follow their very tight narrative.
They followed Farage around everywhere he went, they are for the most part mentally unstable and if I were on the Conservative campaign side I would try to expose them to the general public as much as possible.