Is this the beginning of the end for the Conservatives.

[Chippy_Tea]

Is the party finally over?

A 34% swing with 43% turnout.


BBC News Summary

1. The Liberal Democrats have won the North Shropshire by-election
2. It had been a safe Conservative seat, with a 2019 majority of almost 23,000
3. But the Lib Dems' Helen Morgan took the seat by almost 6,000 votes
4. "Boris Johnson, the party is over," says Morgan after victory
5. The by-election was sparked by the resignation MP Owen Paterson
6. It came after a turbulent month for the PM, with questions about lockdown parties in Downing Street last year
7. The PM also faced a rebellion of 100 of his MPs this week over Covid regulations

 

[Brew_DD2]

They don't care about sleaze, but this will get their arses twitching.

 

[MickDundee]

They don't care about sleaze, but this will get their arses twitching.

As will this year’s Christmas Number One:
http://borisjohnson.info/?fbclid=IwAR0uCByXkT2ZJC6ulzJ8Imn5Xi27E2NAgNo_zJNnLuDZPYQjDCyOz9uN1yw

 

[Brianbrewed]

Is this the beginning of the end for the Conservatives.

More than likely not, but Johnson will probably get stabbed in the back after Christmas and be replaced by Rishi Sunak.


This episode of the 'David McWilliams' podcast has fascinating insights into the poll numbers in the UK.

https://play.acast.com/s/the-david-mcwilliams-podcast/a82880ac-ab34-4c83-8d3b-ad159f3556e2

 

[Graz]

Usual by-election protest vote but if it actually came down to voting for who is going to run the country for the next five years would they all be voting the same?

I'd like to see the Lib Dems have a shot at the top spot but I just don't think enough people will vote for them to stand any chance of that happening and there supporters lost a lot of confidence with them after the Lib Con coalition with Cameron.

Don't think enough will ever vote labour again either as a lot of the UK are concerned about looking after their wealth and don't see Labour as a good bet there. If they got in I fear they'd spend the country into an even bigger mess than it's currently in. As much as I'm not 100% about the way the government has handled the pandemic I fear we'd have been in a lot worse state if Corbin had somehow got in. To be honest parts of it have blown me away in so far as us leading the world in vaccine roll out and so on.

 

[DavidDetroit]

We have an easy majority of liberals in the US. Gerrymandering kills it. Then our political system perpetuates it, gives the minority a much larger voice than it has earned.

 

[Binkei Huckaback]

I doubt it. Johnson is eady to get rid of as he's only the PM. What's more difficult is getting rid of those who hold the real power like Rees Mogg.

 

[Flat Foot]

JRM is my MP. I think the Conservative majority here will be hard to usurp because of the constituency boundary that we have now. The only thing I'll say in favour of him is that even if he doesn't agree with your view on something, he'll write back and say why. I may not agree with the reply, but at least he did it. Before the boundary was redrawn our previous Labour MP would write some mealy-mouthed reply that hid his true views, probably because he didn't want to lose your vote.

I can't stand most of JRM's views but I will admit to shaking his hand. I wrote to him asking him to support a debate in the house I was personally passionate about, I wasn't expecting much but he hand wrote a letter back replying to my story and said he'd try to be there. He then was and wrote a follow up letter and a copy of Hansard, and also helped vote through the measures being debated. That was the right to paid leave for bereaved parents when a child dies (up until recently you had no right to paid time off) and also money available to help pay for funeral costs. A few weeks after I was in London with my wife and as we happened to be walking past Parliament by chance he was stood outside. He remembered us when I mentioned the topic and I was able to thank him for his support and shake his hand.

Sorry for that tangent, but I do think occasionally we all need reminding that even when you don't agree with your local politician, to the point they can make you angry with some of their views, they can still do important work for their constituents.

As for this by-election, in isolation yes it's a standard mid-term protest vote. But the wider context is significant.

Firstly, the by-election is of his own making, and the run up (with the three line whip to save Paterson's skin, then the about face) caused a lot of ill will with his MPs. We've had the ongoing parties saga that unlike a lot of sleazy stories is cutting through to the majority of the public who only have a passing interest in politics (I think possibly as procurement contracts being given to chums is humdrum to Joe Public as it's just "well that's what rich people do all the time", whereas pretty much every member of the public sacrificed something last Christmas so it hits home). And the Tory rebellion this week on the further covid control measures shows he's losing his party.

In a way the Christmas break is coming at a perfect time for him, like the end of round bell for a boxer on the ropes.

But the Tory party can be ruthless and make no mistake that if the likes of Truss or Sunak think they could grab power they will be circling. It's happened many a time in the past.

 

[pilgrimhudd]

JRM is my MP. I think the Conservative majority here will be hard to usurp because of the constituency boundary that we have now. The only thing I'll say in favour of him is that even if he doesn't agree with your view on something, he'll write back and say why. I may not agree with the reply, but at least he did it. Before the boundary was redrawn our previous Labour MP would write some mealy-mouthed reply that hid his true views, probably because he didn't want to lose your vote.

I can't stand most of JRM's views but I will admit to shaking his hand. I wrote to him asking him to support a debate in the house I was personally passionate about, I wasn't expecting much but he hand wrote a letter back replying to my story and said he'd try to be there. He then was and wrote a follow up letter and a copy of Hansard, and also helped vote through the measures being debated. That was the right to paid leave for bereaved parents when a child dies (up until recently you had no right to paid time off) and also money available to help pay for funeral costs. A few weeks after I was in London with my wife and as we happened to be walking past Parliament by chance he was stood outside. He remembered us when I mentioned the topic and I was able to thank him for his support and shake his hand.

Sorry for that tangent, but I do think occasionally we all need reminding that even when you don't agree with your local politician, to the point they can make you angry with some of their views, they can still do important work for their constituents.

As for this by-election, in isolation yes it's a standard mid-term protest vote. But the wider context is significant.

Firstly, the by-election is of his own making, and the run up (with the three line whip to save Paterson's skin, then the about face) caused a lot of ill will with his MPs. We've had the ongoing parties saga that unlike a lot of sleazy stories is cutting through to the majority of the public who only have a passing interest in politics (I think possibly as procurement contracts being given to chums is humdrum to Joe Public as it's just "well that's what rich people do all the time", whereas pretty much every member of the public sacrificed something last Christmas so it hits home). And the Tory rebellion this week on the further covid control measures shows he's losing his party.

In a way the Christmas break is coming at a perfect time for him, like the end of round bell for a boxer on the ropes.

But the Tory party can be ruthless and make no mistake that if the likes of Truss or Sunak think they could grab power they will be circling. It's happened many a time in the past.

I have no time for jrm, but that was good of him, sounds far better than our mp george useless. I remember once when jrm came to Corbyn's defence over something, saying that he had the right to his opinions some such. It felt genuine anyway.

I think possibly the end of the beginning for johnson, some tories recognise that he could be starting to hurt the party. I'm sure vultures are circling.

As much as I'd like to see a lib dem govt ( it won't happen) I feel theres a dearth of talent in british politics throughout.

 

[dad_of_jon]

I think a churchill quote is in order especially as boris wrote a book about his hero...

It is not the beginning of the end but perhaps it is the end of the beginning.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

More than likely not, but Johnson will probably get stabbed in the back after Christmas and be replaced by Rishi Sunak.

Meh, after the local elections in May is probably more likely. The feeling among Tory MPs at the moment seems to be "this is going badly, but Covid has made it difficult to develop a programme of his own and you don't want to rock the boat in the middle of the omicron crisis, so he deserves one last chance".

Also it allows the successor to blame Johnson for all the bad headlines this winter, and what is likely to be a pretty terrible local election result.

And personally I don't think Sunak will get it - his popularity has collapsed among those members who do the ConHome surveys now that he's having to play Mr Bad Guy rather than Mr Handing-out-pots-of-cash, and favourites generally don't win Tory leadership elections (Brexit made Johnson a special case). Liz Truss is a lot more likely IMO, although she would probably be even worse than Johnson.

 

[Flat Foot]

As much as I'd like to see a lib dem govt ( it won't happen) I feel theres a dearth of talent in british politics throughout.

I'm affiliated to no particular party but lib dems often seem to mostly coincide with the majority of my views, more than others at least. But I agree about a lack of talent. I'm one of the people who believe politicians aren't actually paid enough. You can get a lot more for a lot less aggro in the private sector.

Just because a salary is higher than the average doesn't mean it's a decent renumeration for the role.

The wages as they are opens the door to folk like JRM can afford to do it whilst keeping their various side hustles.

Pay peanuts, get monkeys.

 

[obscure]

Meh, after the local elections in May is probably more likely. The feeling among Tory MPs at the moment seems to be "this is going badly, but Covid has made it difficult to develop a programme of his own and you don't want to rock the boat in the middle of the omicron crisis, so he deserves one last chance".

I suspect you are right about May, if I remember rightly if they get the relevant number of letters to the committee to trigger a leadership challenge and Johnson manages to get 50%+1 of Conservative party MP’s to vote for him then Conservative party rules means their cannot be another challenge for a year. Basically I doubt they will do it until they are certain that they will win, and a bad result in the May local elections would probably be what pushes it over the line.

 

[Flat Foot]

L
iz Truss is a lot more likely IMO, although she would probably be even worse than Johnson.

My issue with Truss is that I can never get her talking about cheese and pork markets out of my head when I think of her, even though it was a few years ago now

 

[Nicks90]

I love to hate and love JRM all at the same time.
He can be a complete ass-hat, but you have to admit he is incredibly intelligent, impartial to macro and global economics because of his I dependant wealth, meaning any views and actions on foreign policy and global trade can generally be seen as in our best interests.
It's his personal opinions on welfare and local level politics that makes me cringe.


But....
If we could devolve more authority to regional authorities (NOT local councils, as they are all corrupt tossers) and leave Parliament to nation state level politics, I think JRM would actually make a great pm

 

[moto748]

I think JRM would actually make a great pm

Well, with his most famous recent pose, he's indicated quite clearly the level of respect he has for the British parliament.

The worthless (and deeply phoney) POS.

 

[Rodcx500z]

The trouble with politics today is the people involved, have not grasped the power of the internet you cannot fart without the world knowing, it has turned the world into a village were everybody knows everything about everybody else, if Matt Hancock had chosen to snog here North Minerva Reef Entrance - drone view - YouTube the world would be non the wiser, by the way i would love to go there

 

[Chippy_Tea]

And personally I don't think Sunak will get it - his popularity has collapsed among those members who do the ConHome surveys now that he's having to play Mr Bad Guy rather than Mr Handing-out-pots-of-cash, and favourites generally don't win Tory leadership elections (Brexit made Johnson a special case). Liz Truss is a lot more likely IMO, although she would probably be even worse than Johnson.

SKY - https://m.skybet.com/politics/conservative-party/event/24455769

 

[Rodcx500z]

SKY - https://m.skybet.com/politics/conservative-party/event/24455769

I would add Jurgan Klopp to that list

 

[trueblue]

As we are a few years away from an election the tory loving press will make sure todays malarkeys are forgotten and buried and whoever is the leader will be made to look like a saint with the opposition leaders portrayed as the devil. After all the said press moguls are expected to work for their gongs and knighthoods.