Diacetyl rest - Bohemian Pilsner

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marko65

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Currently brewing my first pilsner/lager - using the Greg Hughes recipe with Wyeast 2124 yeast - starting gravity was 1051 (brewed on 23/5) and today I'm down to 1020. FG for the recipe is 1014. Fermentation temp has been 12 degrees. Is it too soon to start ramping up the temp?
 
The pilsner has been at 18 degrees since Wednesday - took a gravity reading just now - it says 1008 - the recipe said final gravity would be 1014. Smells and tastes OK - why has it dropped this low?
 
why has it dropped this low?
Because FG estimates are guesswork based on average yeast performance. You produced a fermentable wort and had good healthy yeast. I always seem to outperform the estimates as well.
 
84% apparent attenuation is most likely still within the realm of "normal" possibility for your yeast.

The listed 73-77% apparent attenuation is likely an indication of the 2-sigma range of probability, but in the real world 3-sigma is considered to be within the range of what is to be considered fully normal.

As probability statistics have it, 68.2% of the time your random results (if normal) will be within +/- 2-sigma. And 99.7% of the time your results (if normal) will be within +/- 3-sigma.
 
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