OK. Here's where I am at for anyone who might be interested:
My set up is:
Plastic mash tun, 50 litre boil kettle/HLT, I have been fly sparging but decided after reading a few reports on the efficiency of modern grains that a batch sparge would suit me time wise and I would take the hit on extra grain to compensate.
In BeerSmith, I have reduced the absorption rate to 0.79, my brew house efficiency is down to 58%. I punched these figures into the recipe I have just brewed today and the numbers now seem to stack up.
Now I know these efficiency figures might look horrendous but if it gets me a predictable brew day then I will be happy!