WW3

[Omega]

As an aside, these 180 mile missiles have been completely rubbish.

I don't even know why they bother. Even Ukraine admitted that 5 were taken out before they even made it and the other one partially made it causing a fire.

Both sides have anti-missile technology. The only way Russia made them stick the other night was because they threw in 300 at once and a dozen or so made their target.

The fact that one out of 6 hit the target means that Russian air defence cannot deal with them
Israel probably has the best air defence in the world, but even their air defence was penetrated by Iran who, to my knowledge, while fairly advanced, still lags behind Russia in many aspects
Our air defence is our military ships, so we are way worse than Russia or Ukraine, so don't expect we will knock out even half of the missiles

 

[Omega]

As said above the Russian economy is set to fail and that places a huge strain on the war effort, this is forcing Putin into a corner he knows this cant keep going my bet is he is relying on Trump to pull funding and force a cease fire, if not he will make one final push and go for it.

Did you hear this from "Russian experts" who never lived in Russia?
There is a good Russian expert, her name is Natalia Zubarevich, she works at Moscow State University. While it is obvious from her interviews that she is absolutely against this stupid war, she must be careful not to jump into politics or criticise Moscow. She recently gave an interview to "foreign agent" Yulia Latynina (this is her Youtube channel https://www.youtube.com/@yulialatynina71; she often interviews ex-Zelensky's Strategic Communications Adviser Oleksii Arestovych https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleksii_Arestovych and Ukrainian journalist Dmitry Ilyich Gordon https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmitry_Gordon).
Zubarevich confirmed that Russia may carry on indefinitely the conflict with Ukraine if things won't change. And it does not look like things are changing
Meanwhile, we all know that our prices went up significantly more than our wages. We directly suffer from this war and will suffer more if Houthis continue messing up with our supply chain
I am against "footballers syndrome" (I invented it , it is when someone believes he/she is part of something bigger, but in reality he/she is being exploited, like football fans - they say something like "we won the cup", but, in reality, it is not them, but some other people, gained lots of money, the fans lost money on tickets and merchandise) - it is not worth risking our lives, worsening our quality of life and wasting money in a form of taxes for sake of gratification that will make rich people even richer
However, I do not know the solution to war - I suspect it is already out of control of the US and the EU

 

[Omega]

Russia will not use nuclear weapons. The whole point of the invasion was to steal Ukraine resources. If Europe properly supports Ukraine Russia will find some way to get out in the next year to a year and a half, Obviously after teaching the Nazi regime in Ukraine a lesson. Then they can get back to what they do best. Making money and lining their own pockets.

Europe would do well in supporting Ukraine With or without the Americans. Russia would be a spent force, it practically is already. It would also rebalance global power.

This well falls into a theory I learnt in history lessons at school many moons ago - there is a cause and a reason for a war; Cause is always emotional, reason is always financial.
However, I do not understand the financial benefits to Russia from this war - they don't need more territory because they cannot utilise their own (they are trying to give away land for free in Far East to populate the region); Ukraine has lots of lithium, but, apparently, it is so polluting that not many countries want to extract it (Norway and Portugal have the largest deposits in Europe, even the UK has! Even Serbia struggles to get a local approval to start mining lithium); gas - he burns excess gas; coal - well, not many countries are interested in coal; iron - Russia struggled to sell its iron before the war. Yes, grain and agriculture can give an edge, but there are so many other goods and materials in the world that it won't play an edge. And they don't need Ukrainians as labour because they can open their borders to get immigrants
And I don't believe Kremlin's or anyone's rhetorics about defence etc. because it is the cause...

 

[old dog new tricks]

Did you hear this from "Russian experts" who never lived in Russia?
There is a good Russian expert, her name is Natalia Zubarevich, she works at Moscow State University. While it is obvious from her interviews that she is absolutely against this stupid war, she must be careful not to jump into politics or criticise Moscow. She recently gave an interview to "foreign agent" Yulia Latynina (this is her Youtube channel https://www.youtube.com/@yulialatynina71; she often interviews ex-Zelensky's Strategic Communications Adviser Oleksii Arestovych https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleksii_Arestovych and Ukrainian journalist Dmitry Ilyich Gordon https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmitry_Gordon).
Zubarevich confirmed that Russia may carry on indefinitely the conflict with Ukraine if things won't change. And it does not look like things are changing
Meanwhile, we all know that our prices went up significantly more than our wages. We directly suffer from this war and will suffer more if Houthis continue messing up with our supply chain
I am against "footballers syndrome" (I invented it , it is when someone believes he/she is part of something bigger, but in reality he/she is being exploited, like football fans - they say something like "we won the cup", but, in reality, it is not them, but some other people, gained lots of money, the fans lost money on tickets and merchandise) - it is not worth risking our lives, worsening our quality of life and wasting money in a form of taxes for sake of gratification that will make rich people even richer
However, I do not know the solution to war - I suspect it is already out of control of the US and the EU

The EU show me what they have done to prevent conflict they have become complete toothless.

I will bow to your greater research I merely watch main steam news channels so my information is not as detailed as yours clearly. As for Russia can do this indefinably, then why are they already reaching out to Korea for assistance? Its not just money that limits the ability to wage war, you need willing and able fighting forces, that is clearly an issue for Russia, as the conflict has shown.

 

[Rodcx500z]

The people responsible for this mess are long gone, Yeltsin, Reagan, Gorbachov, who broke up the old Soviet bloc surely they knew some were down the road someone ie Putin would want it back, our great forward thinking leaders, just like Bush and Blaire who bombed the **** out of Iraq on the pretex of womd that one is waiting in the wings but will happen

 

[Chippy_Tea]

His plan is not to stop at Ukraine

Where do you think he will invade next if his carries on?

 

[old dog new tricks]

The people responsible for this mess are long gone, Yeltsin, Reagan, Gorbachov, who broke up the old Soviet bloc surely they knew some were down the road someone ie Putin would want it back, our great forward thinking leaders, just like Bush and Blaire who bombed the **** out of Iraq on the pretex of womd that one is waiting in the wings but will happen

Lets not pretend Iraq was about protecting oil nothing else.

The focus is shifting now food and energy security are becoming the long term strengths, the environmental is also affecting this picture for example Ukraine is tiny compared to Russia in terms of grain production BUT the quality of Ukraine grain was far better and prior to this war had great links to black sea.

By destroying this Russia has affected nearly all the world, some nations are now stockpiling grain and rice to offset further increasing prices.

The lack of fertiliser being exported from Ukraine has knock on effect to world farming connected to the global environmental impacts crop yields are failing or massively reduced.

Wars can be one in many ways not just bombs and bullits

 

[Omega]

As for Russia can do this indefinably, then why are they already reaching out to Korea for assistance? Its not just money that limits the ability to wage war, you need willing and able fighting forces, that is clearly an issue for Russia, as the conflict has shown.

Nobody knows what North Koreans are doing in Russia, except Putin and Kim Whoever North Korean Ruler. However, there are plenty of gossips and unconfirmed hypotheses
I am not sure about williness to fight on the Russian side - they still get 20-30k volunteers a month, it is a big business there. Zelensky's troops is quite a different story - I would dismiss some videos how recruitment is conducted in Ukraine as Putin's propaganda if there were few of them, but there are lots. Our western media sources tell about people running away from Ukraine, so it is likely to be true.
Zelensky currently recruits circa 1000 soldiers a day and our western media sources say this covers two thirds of the troops he needs. Hang on... if he is getting 30k soldiers a month, and it is only 2/3 out of the necessary, this means he needs 45k a month... So, how many does he lose then???
Now to confuse you - a friend of mine from Ukraine said that he stopped receiving news about his acquittances being killed... Maybe drone warfare reduced human casualties, or maybe something else

 

[old dog new tricks]

Well as you are clearly an expert on world affairs, both military and political i will bow out of the chat i can only speak from a defence position and your sources clearly trump the briefings i receive, I suggest you make yourself know the world governments as you have the truth from every angle so it seems.

All bow to your superior knowledge opinions and views be be with held sir to avoid rebuke

bye

 

[Northern_Brewer]

And when he thinks his back is to the wall do you think he will give up or escalate?

I will leave it to your imagination at what stage Putin will decide we have overstepped the mark by allowing Ukraine to use these long range missiles, I hope you are wrong and Putin will not use nukes but it's a big gamble now we have said it's ok to use them.

No - if you're trying to make a useful prediction, don't leave it to imagination. You seem to be saying that allowing Ukraine to use US missiles is something that Putin will regard as "overstepping the mark" and "put his back to the wall", which will cause him to "escalate" and "use nukes". That seems to be a statement of where you think his red line is for using nukes. We will see - but so far I don't see any mushroom clouds.

Putin is already using Iranian drones and North Korean ammunition in Ukraine, so he can hardly complain about US ammunition being used against Russian soil. Ukraine hasn't asked NATO to launch nukes into Russia because of the Iranian and North Korean stuff being used. Conversely if he wants to avoid missile strikes in Russia he can just retreat back to the Russian border and Ukraine won't follow him any further. The end of this war is in Putin's hands.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

but so far I don't see any mushroom clouds.

Did i say he was going to push the big red button the instant they were given the green light to use these longer range missiles no, i can guarantee one thing if we keep poking the bear its not going to end well for the Ukraine and those he sees as their brothers in arms.

 

[An Ankoù]

Escalate - the only way for both sides is to escalate. This reduces the space to maneuvre, someone miscalculates the other and... boom . It takes two to have a fight, both sides are wrong

Nonsense.
How can Ukraine be wrong for attempting to repel an invader?

 

[Omega]

Nonsense.
How can Ukraine be wrong for attempting to repel an invader?

I did not say this and, unfortunately, I moved from idealistic views to John Mearsheimer's offensive realism
Stalin and Churchill agreed to build a sanitary corridor between USSR and West (you can Google for "percentages agreement" or the "naughty document"). The purpose of it was to avoid a conflict - read Niall Fergusson's "The War of the World: Twentieth-century Conflict And the Descent of the West", he argues that countries predominately fight either within themselves as a civil war, or with their neighbours. If you are neighbour with a powerful nation, well, you will fight them one day
It is logical for smaller countries to join NATO because it is logical for them to fear Russia. Equally, it is logical for Russia to fear NATO because we have more than 5 times population of Russia, we are much more powerful economically and we will destroy Russia one day. And we dictated Russia the rules for the last 30 years. Nothing personal - strictly business
However, neither you nor I will gain anything from this conflict - it is the rich who will benefit from the conflict. Meanwhile, the conflict services its purpose by distracting us from our falling quality of living standards.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

However, neither you nor I will gain anything from this conflict - it is the rich who will benefit from the conflict. Meanwhile, the conflict services its purpose by distracting us from our falling quality of living standards.

 

[Brew_DD2]

John Mearsheimer's offensive realism

His book with Stephen Walt was excellent.