anthonyUK said:
So Scott, from a theory perspective it is great to get data to back it up and to also to show that your process is as expected but still no more accurate that reading a glass float?
I don't want that to sound like it is a pointless exercise as that is not intended but an exercise in proving that a hydrometer is correct too?
Oh, that's not the reason for my calculation. I only posted about what I was doing with the FG as it was in a similar vain to what the OP was attempting to calculate. Ie, we both took into consideration the gravity of ethanol vs water etc.
I would never not use a hydrometer, it's really the only way to tell if it's finished and if you have reached the potential FG or not.
The reason for my calculations is to get a reasonably accurate guess on potential ABV when making a recipe. I use them in my homebrewbuddy site.
A simple example is when brewing a light lager. I would use 3kg of extra light DME to make the lager. Extra light DME is approx 80% fermentable with a yield of approx 83%. Bunging that into any homebrew calculator will show an approx OG of around 1.045 @ 23L. If I were to use the traditional attenuation rule (generally around 75%) on that recipe the estimated FG would be 1.011 (all calculators I have tried use this method). In reality the potential FG would be more like 1.005... as is found with most lager kits/recipes.
This may not seem like a big problem but if you are aiming for a 5% lager then 3kg of extra light DME wouldn't appear to be enough (when trusting the 1.011 figure) so you would end up adding more DME till you hit an OG of 1.052... where the potential FG would appear to be 1.013. This all seems great until it comes to the measuring.
Your beer would ferment away quite happily but would end up way past 1.013, sitting somewhere around 1.005-1.006 and giving you an ABV of over 6% which is way too high.
This is the reason for my calculations. When brewing extract, kits, wine or cider the 75% rule just doesn't apply. Most people don't notice this because they are brewing with low fermentability ingredients, as soon as you go over 75% you aren't going to be accurate at all as all standard calculators make this assumption.
Another simple example is a wine. Starting gravity of 1.090, according to standard calculators the FG would be around 1.022 lol.
I made an example earlier with water. I tried it out on the hopville beer calculus recipe maker. 23L of water, 3kg of sugar and some nutrient.... FG 1.010 (or thereabouts). In reality it would finish way past 1.000.