The Coronavirus thread.

[Cheshire Cat]

He’s Ill isn’t he
He's supposedly got mild symptoms so why no show. He always hides when the going get tough he is a coward and useless leader, tme to be replaced.
I know this is supposed to be a non political thread but this government have got so much wrong by their incompetence that I have to speak out.
Please do not censor the British people need to see the truth.

 

[foxy]

I get the 510,000 number is about if 80% of the population get it and 1% die, I assume 250,000 is 80% get it but hospitals are not over run halving the deaths but how you get to 20,000 seems to be if we isolate for a bit it goes away. Please tell me i'm wrong.

In theory yes, if there was no contact eventually the virus dies out with no one to infect. Trouble is if it isn't wiped out world wide and international travel starts again who's to say it will not start again.

I dont. They're just reacting to everything and not being proactive (look at how many u-turns they've been forced to make). They're giving mixed messages about things (e.g. stay in but go to work and make sure you go out to exercise) They're also flat out lying about loads of stuff during the daily press conference

Again it comes back to the balancing act of the virus and the economy, the longer it goes on the worse shape the economy will be in with the potential to create even more deaths and anguish, not just to the sick and elderly but through all the age groups.
Who is to say any other government could handle it any better?

 

[terrym]

He’s Ill isn’t he
He's supposedly got mild symptoms so why no show. He always hides when the going get tough he is a coward and useless leader, tme to be replaced.
I know this is supposed to be a non political thread but this government have got so much wrong by their incompetence that I have to speak out.
Please do not censor the British people need to see the truth.

There's another thread for Boris bashing here....
https://www.thehomebrewforum.co.uk/...s-quicker-and-better.85731/page-2#post-881291

 

[MyQul]

In theory yes, if there was no contact eventually the virus dies out with no one to infect. Trouble is if it isn't wiped out world wide and international travel starts again who's to say it will not start again.

Again it comes back to the balancing act of the virus and the economy, the longer it goes on the worse shape the economy will be in with the potential to create even more deaths and anguish, not just to the sick and elderly but through all the age groups.
Who is to say any other government could handle it any better?

I understand your argument about the economy but the gov'ment just seem to be completely incompetant at the moment/over the crisis. They're not doing one thing or the other. Initially it looked like they were favouring the economy (which is fine if that they way they wanted to go) but then as soon as the optics began to look bad for them they then did loads of u-turns/began to lie about things and/or dither.
S.korea seemed/s to have done the right thing and taken the WHO's advise of test, test, test. We're done bugger all testing in comparison and have just dithered.

 

[foxy]

I understand your argument about the economy but the gov'ment just seem to be completely incompetant at the moment/over the crisis. They're not doing one thing or the other. Initially it looked like they were favouring the economy (which is fine if that they way they wanted to go) but then as soon as the optics began to look bad for them they then did loads of u-turns/began to lie about things and/or dither.
S.korea seemed/s to have done the right thing and taken the WHO's advise of test, test, test. We're done bugger all testing in comparison and have just dithered.

Testing kits are in short supply, as soon as the crisis started the German government stopped export of medical supplies. This is probably a lesson learned by the majority of governments around the world they will all be equipped should this happen again. Remember this is a once in a lifetime catastrophe. Most conservative governments would have liked to ride it out, but when it came to the seriousness of the pandemic they have all had to change course, Brazil is the only exception. As for South Korea I would say they were at the ready and had a better grip on the situation, so would I if I was living next door to Kim Jong-Un. One would never know what he may want to lob over the fence at South Korea.

 

[Mr_S_Jerusalem]

To be fair to Boris (and don’t get me wrong I don’t particularly like the guy for various reasons) he is actually doing what he said to do.
I mean practicing what he preaches right?
if you think you’ve got it stay at home and don’t go near anyone.
Last I heard he was doing video conferences or something. Fair play I say.

 

[Dutto]

In view of the video where Indian Policemen are whacking people who aren't following the rules, I thought it might be good to explain that in Singapore they do it proper. Please bear in mind that "Six Strokes of the Cane" is not an unusual punishment for malicious damage and other "yobbish behaviour" when reading how they do it!

For starters, the "cane" is a six foot long 1" diameter bamboo rod welded by a Policeman who specialises in the activity.

The person to be caned is stripped naked and bent over a trestle with his hands and feet tied so that he can't move.

The Policeman takes a run-up to administer each stroke of the cane across the person's buttocks. (What a weird word to use, a "stroke" it isn't!)

After each stroke of the cane, the person being caned is removed from the trestle, examined by a Doctor and allowed a minimum of 24 hours to recover, before receiving the next stroke; sometimes the person may be admitted to hospital to recover.

The system is followed until the punishment is completed.

Apparently not many people come back for second helpings. I wonder why?

 

[foxy]

From what I have read 'The Birch' seemed to make repeat offenders think twice.

The do gooders say it was barbaric, I have seen some barbaric acts on you tube road rage incidents. Could be a punishment that fits the crime.

 

[Mr_S_Jerusalem]

Hmmm this does seem fairly nasty as it goes.

I can say that India is quite a strange place however where what is normal here may seem abnormal over there. They do seem to follow a different....Path.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

I get the 510,000 number is about if 80% of the population get it and 1% die, I assume 250,000 is 80% get it but hospitals are not over run halving the deaths but how you get to 20,000 seems to be if we isolate for a bit it goes away. Please tell me i'm wrong.

If you look at the original Ferguson et al model, in particular pp13-14 you'll see that they are sketching out possibilities based on various assumptions, but the key is what happens to the disease when your main weapon is locking down society (and you haven't yet rolled out other mitigations like comprehensive track and test, extra ICU beds etc, never mind a vaccine). Lock downs reduce contact by about 75%, so they work against something like this with an R value of 2-3 (but not if R>>4) so we're lucky it's not worse. But as soon as you relax the lockdown it comes back. Ferguson et al were testing where the limits could be, and were finding that locking down around 80-85% of the time was needed to keep deaths down to 20,000 over 2 years in the absence of any other measures.

Also worth noting that some of the smartarses criticising government policy have studiously ignored the fact that in many cases the government have been quite clear that tighter measures would come in in future, but were trying to balance the difficult tradeoffs. Then when government do what they always said they were going to do, the smartarses claim that it was a result of the smartarsery - there's already some now demanding that the restrictions should be lifted, mostly because it seems to be disrupting the North London dinner-party circuit.

 

[Dutto]

I read somewhere that going for "herd immunity" had all the hallmarks of a Dominic Cummins idea! ......

Today, Trump managed to:

• Criticise Boris for considering the above!
• Explain what a bad idea it would have been and the zillions that would have died as a result.
• Not mention the words "herd immunity" because apparently they are so abhorrent to him!

Yes folks! The man that has no trouble accusing his own medical staff of being thieves and charlatans can't bring himself to utter the words "herd immunity".

When Trump starts to criticise Boris then we are truly doomed!

https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2020/04/...oronavirus-approach-could-have-been-a-very-c/
BTW, on the Poll conducted on the same page, to the question "Is Donald Trump doing a good job of handling the coronavirus crisis?" 82% answer "NO" so how does that reflect on Boris?

 

[Kyral210]

All this **** has me drinking more than ever. I’ve just started brewing my first kit in years. I had cut down drinking to just weekends, but now, I’m not going down without a store cupboard of beer.

 

[simon12]

If you look at the original Ferguson et al model, in particular pp13-14 you'll see that they are sketching out possibilities based on various assumptions, but the key is what happens to the disease when your main weapon is locking down society (and you haven't yet rolled out other mitigations like comprehensive track and test, extra ICU beds etc, never mind a vaccine). Lock downs reduce contact by about 75%, so they work against something like this with an R value of 2-3 (but not if R>>4) so we're lucky it's not worse. But as soon as you relax the lockdown it comes back. Ferguson et al were testing where the limits could be, and were finding that locking down around 80-85% of the time was needed to keep deaths down to 20,000 over 2 years in the absence of any other measures.

Also worth noting that some of the smartarses criticising government policy have studiously ignored the fact that in many cases the government have been quite clear that tighter measures would come in in future, but were trying to balance the difficult tradeoffs. Then when government do what they always said they were going to do, the smartarses claim that it was a result of the smartarsery - there's already some now demanding that the restrictions should be lifted, mostly because it seems to be disrupting the North London dinner-party circuit.

Cheers for the explanation & link

 

[foxy]

It begs the question why are kids today nothing more than dumb consumers
yup there is as allways a few notable exceptions

Pile it high and sell it for the most you can get allways works and allways has done and allways will.
we are not people we are customers/consumers.

One caveate only good for those with money
Rest can go to hell.!!!

Sorry sport I can't agree with that, we have 2 choices in life. We either submit to our life circumstances and lead a life of resignation, and often desperation, or we can choose to be masters of our own destiny. I read a quote somewhere, 'Accept the things you can't change, but have the courage to change the things you can'.
If you start playing the victim that is the quickest way to undermine your own confidence, sure there will be dumb consumers, but maybe not equally, there will be others who want more out of life, we are all individuals after all.

On topic.
https://www.csiro.au/en/Research/Health/Infectious-dieases-coronavirus/Latest-updates

 

[johncrobinson]

Yes we are all individual and for the record i am a free market kind of guy foxy.

Its the trust and competance of our elected representitives from all parties i am worried about.

If those in power were as smart as the salarys would seem to indicate we all would have fewer problems in life.

One thing i did learn from years in buisiness is over promotion of an individual above and beyond natural abilities leads to disaster ( every time!!!)

 

[foxy]

Yes we are all individual and for the record i am a free market kind of guy foxy.

Its the trust and competance of our elected representitives from all parties i am worried about.

If those in power were as smart as the salarys would seem to indicate we all would have fewer problems in life.

One thing i did learn from years in buisiness is over promotion of an individual above and beyond natural abilities leads to disaster ( every time!!!)

I would think a lot of those in ministerial jobs could command a higher salary in private enterprise. Did I not read that Tony Blair made 13 million British pounds Sterling in one year after leaving government. A mile away from the meager salary he earned as PM of the UK.
But there are those who believe the labour politicians are not in it for the money but for the good of the people. Don't you believe it.
Everyone is used, no matter who is in power, instead (I am not pointing the finger at you) someone shows me a better solution or proves the labour party could do thing better job, this is in your country as well as mine I am happy to go along with what those in power recommend.

Enter Boris Johnson

And as an alternative?

 

[MyQul]

Sorry sport I can't agree with that, we have 2 choices in life. We either submit to our life circumstances and lead a life of resignation, and often desperation, or we can choose to be masters of our own destiny. I read a quote somewhere, 'Accept the things you can't change, but have the courage to change the things you can'.
If you start playing the victim that is the quickest way to undermine your own confidence, sure there will be dumb consumers, but maybe not equally, there will be others who want more out of life, we are all individuals after all.

On topic.
https://www.csiro.au/en/Research/Health/Infectious-dieases-coronavirus/Latest-updates

Whilst I kind of agree, theres one word that puts a hole in the argument. Opportunity. What if you dont have the education or access to get that eduction. What if you your familily is so poor that you cannot be a 'master of your own destiny'

 

[An Ankoù]

One thing i did learn from years in buisiness is over promotion of an individual above and beyond natural abilities leads to disaster ( every time!!!)

... and according to management theorists seems to be either very common or almost inevitable- see the Peter Principle.

 

[Bevvied]

I suspect the incubation period for this is longer than suspected in some cases.
My missus is now coming down with a bit of a fever.
Typical, she becomes ill so she's staying on/in bed with Netflix and there's no sport on the telly for me to watch.

My recovery is slow but steady. Feel weak and sleeping longer than usual, but don't care as the lung issues haven't returned.

 

[Richie_asg1]

As An Ankou says, there are a lot of small clothing and underwear companies still here that could be ordered to make masks and improve protection for front line workers. Also more basic masks for the rest of the population when out shopping. It was easy enough in 1939 to manufacture two types of gasmask for the entire population so why not a flimsy fabric mask now?
I also don't get why there has not been a mandatory rule on covering your face while out in public, as any mask reduces transmission from an infected person to another. Maybe it has to do with all the CCTV cameras they have put everywhere in an attempt to identify and track everyone. Once everyone is wearing a mask it punches a hole right though that concept.

What I am seeing in other countries is that people are having good initiatives, but it could easily be rolled out at a government level and adopted nationwide - but it almost never is?
We should be looking at solutions on a global level, and adopting any that provide an advantage over this.
Just the decision to tell everyone outdoors to cover their face and wear gloves, but not touch your mask with your gloves would be a huge benefit, so simple, but so far not suggested.
In Austria, Japan and Israel this is the norm, but not so here? If you haven't hot a commercial one (yet) - make your own!