Electric cars.

[Alastair70]

Who cares, I do for a start.

I don't know if you are taking the piss but how many hundreds of thousands are going to find themselves out of work and how many will find themselves on benefit, this rush to ban ICE was not needed it's just a number plucked out of thin air and the tax payers will end up paying again.

@Kerby has a very valid point and I don’t think you need to worry. Change is going not going to happen overnight. All the new ICE cars sold between now and 2034 will still need maintained during their working life, so were really talking about a 25+ year transition assuming most most modern ICE vehicles will easily last 10-15 years.
Some of your hundreds of thousands are going to retire, some will retrain and some will go on to do other things. The engineering sector will definitely change, and who know’s, it will maybe even grow.

 

[Rodcx500z]

The transition from horses to automobiles took place over a period of about 40 years. ICE were derided as a novelty that couldn’t possibly be of mainstream use, much like early EV. If we consider that the release of the first gen Nissan leaf in 2010 signals the start of mainstream adoption I don’t think a full switch by 2030 to 2040 is unreasonable.

People are resistant to change and stick with what they know. My nephew is just finishing school and his parents are supporting him in pursuing an ICE mechanic apprenticeship. Wrong move imo, train now for EV so you’re prepared for the future, rather than playing catch up.

Very good read that, i have said many times on here i have no objections to EV,s it's the speed and cost and the backward way they are going about it, it is being pushed by clowns who have no real idea of what they are doing other than wasting hard earned tax payers money

 

[Foggie]

If Electrical Power is the only way forward, it'll make winning a war so much easier.

Just pull the plug.

Just look at the "accidents" in the Baltic sea at them moment. Power, Data and Gas line damage.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

his parents are supporting him in pursuing an ICE mechanic apprenticeship. Wrong move imo,

Not in my opinion, there are 23 million ICE cars on our roads then we have vans, busses, wagons, trains etc there will be jobs for ICE mechanics for many years to come by the time ICE cars are becoming scarce they will have been trained up so they can work on BEV

 

[Kerby]

Not in my opinion, there are 23 million ICE cars on our roads then we have vans, busses, wagons, trains etc there will be jobs for ICE mechanics for many years to come by the time ICE cars are becoming scarce they will have been trained up so they can work on BEV

Fair enough, but doesn’t that go counter to the concerns you raised about employment in your previous post?

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Fair enough, but doesn’t that go counter to the concerns you raised about employment in your previous post?

No initially jobs will mainly be lost in the supply chain not servicing when ICE car manufacture declines, 23 million ICE cars will still need engine oil, filters, starter motors and radiators etc but over time there will less demand for these parts as there will be enough in stock and when this is combined with no new parts being required for new models factories will close and many will lose their jobs.


Drivetrain
100s of engine parts sub-contracted to vendors assembled at engine maker - Vs - a simpler motor driven by tech and assembled in-house. I estimate it would need 50% fewer people overall to make a motor (1 casing, rotor, winding and gears) instead of a complicated engine. Same case applicable to gearboxes - electric motors can eliminate the need for a complicated transmission, so many jobs are in question here.

Starter motor/Alternator
There are some Giant employer names in India that are well-known starter and alternator manufacturers, TVS is one, and BOSCH is another, what about those 1000s of jobs there?

Suspension/Brakes/HVAC
In the current EV Scenario, these industries look safe but there may be advancements made. Regenerative braking can eliminate the need for better brakes someday so watch out. Thankfully with a warmer earth, HVAC is still needed and EVs do need some tech to cool down their internals.

Radiator/heat exchange
There is a sure need for a radiator concept in an EV to keep the battery and motor cool but I am not sure if any jobs will be lost.

Spares/Ancillary units/Engine oil/lubricants/filters/Mechanics
This will be a significant sector that will see millions of job losses, there are 100s of lubricant brands in the world, OEM and fake spare industries, 1st grade copy and fake part manufacturers who somehow provide jobs and run the economy, those will be at stake. Air filters, oil filters, engine spares, clutch replacements, etc all gone forever. All after-sales service centers around the world - organized and unorganized, what will happen to them?

Gujri/Scrap/recylcers
Every major town and every city has a suburb with 100s of streets and 1 or 2 highways full of used spares - engines, gearboxes, body parts like hood, boot, seats, etc - what will happen to them?

After-market tuners/Performance Spares/Accessories
Even a Swift can be modded with a louder FFE exhaust and a K&N air filter, what about those industries? Audio refitters, there are various jobs related to both manufacturing of a Pioneer or Sony or Alpine HU and a Sub, Amp, their related wiring etc - I don't think a Tesla or a BYD (for that matter even today's cars don't need an AFM audio anymore) will need these industries.

I can imagine a Tesla having a 10,000 Rs seat cover done in JC road safely covering the airbags but still there are some jobs to surely vanish in this industry. A product as simple as a Pom-Pom Bosch horn cannot be added to an EV without facing major warranty issues. Minda, Roots, Super - there are so many companies making such a simple 1st-mod-on-a-car in India - louder horns.

Additives/Non OEM performance add ons
Liqui moly, Bardhal, 3M, and 1000s more companies have additives for fuel and oil, what about them?

Bearings
Surely companies like SKF/***/Techspin will have lesser business if engines and gearboxes are eliminated, they are giants in the job sector. There is no need for a journal bearing surely in EV I hope.

Casting/Foundries
Yes, an EV drive train still needs a cast outer block and a forged shaft or a few but there are far fewer cast/forged parts inside a motor compared to an ICE engine.

The Factory
I have checked out EV factories like Ather or Ola (being a native of Hosur, TN) they really don't need a lot of employees to put together an EV product as compared to the cumbersome assembly of an ICE car/bike. Yes, there are jobs created but it takes far fewer people to assemble an EV compared to a conventional car or bike.

The Battery
I really do not have an estimate of how many jobs are created in the manufacture of EV batteries, can anyone discuss that topic? From mining to logistics to processing and assembly of a Battery Pack.

Oil/Petroleum/Refining/Distribution/Pumps
This is the hottest topic of all, can anyone even begin to estimate the number of jobs in the oil industry, it is simply massive and they make or break nations, geo-politics, and differentiate developed or conflict nations. From oil exploration to drilling and mining to shipping and storage to refining and distribution to petrol pumps - it is simply mind-boggling. I cannot understand how EVs are going to replace this industry and where are humans going to find alternative energy to replace oil. Unless we find a Lithium deposit below earth similar to the Middle-East oil story from the 1970s - hoping the volume of Lithium deposits is the size of 3-4 states combined in India - I simply do not see how a 5 trillion $ industry can be closed down in 5-10 years. Unless someone invents a nuclear-powered car that can run on a spoonful of U235 for 25 years at a stretch…

 

[xozzx]

Oil/Petroleum/Refining/Distribution/Pumps
This is the hottest topic of all, can anyone even begin to estimate the number of jobs in the oil industry, it is simply massive and they make or break nations, geo-politics, and differentiate developed or conflict nations. From oil exploration to drilling and mining to shipping and storage to refining and distribution to petrol pumps - it is simply mind-boggling. I cannot understand how EVs are going to replace this industry and where are humans going to find alternative energy to replace oil. Unless we find a Lithium deposit below earth similar to the Middle-East oil story from the 1970s - hoping the volume of Lithium deposits is the size of 3-4 states combined in India - I simply do not see how a 5 trillion $ industry can be closed down in 5-10 years. Unless someone invents a nuclear-powered car that can run on a spoonful of U235 for 25 years at a stretch…

Oil reserves are finite and will eventually run out, obviously there are many opinions on how long it will last but around 50 to 100 years seems standard estimates. So in this case would it not be a good idea to start preparing for this as soon as possible rather than wait 50 years and find we suddenly have no oil and are not prepared. Also if we can use alternatives now where its more feasible then reserves will last longer for those needs where we dont yet have any alternative.

Oil companies are all diversifying with renewables, those who get left behind have themselves to blame, think blockbusters. I work in oil and gas exploration and fairly confident that Ill see out my working days in it but if I get the opportunity to move into renewables would jump at it.


Same could have been used about the sudden introduction on the internet, imagine how many jobs were lost when everything became digital...

 

[Chippy_Tea]

So in this case would it not be a good idea to start preparing for this as soon as possible rather than wait 50 years and find we suddenly have no oil and are not prepared.

In theory yes but how do you "start preparing" you cannot take people who work in the industry out now because in 50 - 100 years they may not have a job and what do you do to prepare them?

 

[xozzx]

One example would be to have a fully functional network for electric vehicles and more advanced tech to improve range and charging speed.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

One example would be to have a fully functional network for electric vehicles and more advanced tech to improve range and charging speed.

How are people currently working in refineries etc going to make your suggestion a thing?