Covid the *** and the final stage.

[Polcho]

They said on the news that the Delta virus has 67% more transmissability than Alpha.

It occurred to me that the R rate may be giving a false idea of the situation if this is the case.

It’s around 1.1 at present, but if is 3/4 more infectious, shouldn’t that alter the R number on aggregate in some way?

 

[Northern_Brewer]

It occurred to me that the R rate may be giving a false idea of the situation if this is the case.

It's kinda the other way round, you start with the observed number of cases, use that to calculate the R number, and from that (and knowing eg the %age of a variant) you can work out the transmissibility.

So yes, a variant can increase the R, but the R is made up of a whole host of factors, not least an increasingly-vaccinated population that makes it much harder for even new variants to propagate.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

I had a text from the NHS, asking if I would like to bring my 2nd *** forwards, just been online and have changed it from 11th June to tomorrow afternoon.

Also worth noting that I've heard of several people going to the NHS website without being prompted, and being able to bring forward their second *** by 2 weeks or so. Obviously they have to assume 100% uptake when building the schedule, but if even 5-10% don't take the ***, that puts a lot of holes in the appointment list that can be used.

Also interesting that Manitoba has now got a formal policy of giving people who got the AZ vaccine first, the choice of AZ, Pfizer or Moderna for their second *** :
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/mani...nitoba-covid-19-vaccine-eligibility-1.6047013

 

[MmmBeer]

Also worth noting that I've heard of several people going to the NHS website without being prompted, and being able to bring forward their second *** by 2 weeks or so. Obviously they have to assume 100% uptake when building the schedule, but if even 5-10% don't take the ***, that puts a lot of holes in the appointment list that can be used.

The vaccination centre was very quiet when I arrived yesterday, was told it had been busier earlier in the afternoon, but they could handle more people than are going there at present. I was in, through all the checks, jabbed and out within 5 or 6 minutes. Slightly tender arm today.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

I gave someone a lift early Saturday afternoon to be faced with an hour-long queue. It wasn't obvious, but we heard an older woman who was there for her second AZ *** talk to someone and it turned out that the long queue was for Pfizer, there was a separate entrance for AZ that had no queue at all. My liftee was in a category that meant they were given the choice of AZ or Pfizer - but would have had to join the back of the queue to get Pfizer. So AZ it was.

A handy guide to the new "Greek" names, courtesy of Eric Topol :

 

[Chippy_Tea]

 

[Chippy_Tea]

The UK has announced zero daily Covid deaths within 28 days of a positive test for the first time since the start of the pandemic.

The latest figures also reported another 3,165 new cases, compared with 3,383 on Monday and 2,493 one week ago.

It comes amid concern over a recent small rise in cases linked to the spread of the variant first identified in India.

Any deaths that happen on Tuesday will be reported in days to come.

Reports of daily deaths are often lower at weekends and at the start of the week because less counting takes place while statisticians are off - and adding in bank holidays will make this figure less certain still.

The figure comes as there have been calls to delay easing Covid restrictions in England on 21 June due to warnings of a third wave.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57320320

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Summary

1. Zero daily Covid deaths announced in UK for first time since pandemic began
2. Cases remain above 3,000 amid concerns over the Delta variant first found in India
3. Glasgow will see restrictions ease slightly from Saturday after 277 days of tougher curbs
4. But many parts of Scotland will not proceed to the next step of the country's roadmap out of lockdown
5. First Minister Nicola Sturgeon says easing must pause in some places
6. She says there is not an "all size fits all" policy as other areas proceed to the lower level one curbs
7. Meanwhile, a scientist says the idea the "job is done is wrong" on the coronavirus pandemic in the UK
8. Prof Adam Finn warns many are still vulnerable and unlocking too soon could require a U-turn later
9. Peru has more than doubled its Covid death toll following a review, making it the country with the world's highest death rate per capita
10. In Sweden, bar opening hours are extended as curbs ease, as Italy sees a return to indoor dining

 

[Chippy_Tea]

The variant of coronavirus first identified in India is now the dominant strain in the UK, Public Health England (PHE) has said. (BBC NEWS)
The number of cases confirmed by laboratory analysis rose by 79% over the last week to 12,431.
Scientists believe the variant, now known as Delta, has overtaken the Kent, or Alpha, variant.
They say that there may also be a higher risk of hospitalisation linked to the Delta variant.
But that is based on early evidence, and PHE say more data is needed to have more confidence in the finding.
"With this variant now dominant across the UK, it remains vital that we all continue to exercise as much caution as possible," said Dr Jenny Harries, chief executive of the UK Health Security Agency.
"The way to tackle variants is to tackle the transmission of Covid-19 as a whole."

PHE said the most affected area of the country remains the north west of England.
Confirmed cases of the Delta variant in Bolton have risen by 795 over the past week to 2,149, with Blackburn with Darwen seeing a near doubling of cases to 724 in total.
But scientists say there is encouraging signs that the transmission rate in Bolton has begun to fall and that the actions taken by residents and local authority teams have been successful in reducing spread.

Early analyses from England and Scotland suggest that people infected with the Delta variant could be twice as likely to need hospital care.
But there are still low numbers of people being admitted to hospital with any variant, and PHE stress that more data are needed to confirm this analysis.
In the last week, 94 people in England were admitted to hospital after attending A&E with the Delta variant.
The majority had not yet been vaccinated.
And 6% had had both jabs.

• Up to 75% of new UK cases could be Indian variant
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PHE has also published a breakdown of outbreaks and clusters of variants in schools settings with cases rising in line with higher levels of the Delta variant in the community.
The latest data suggest that there have been 97 confirmed outbreaks in primary and secondary schools that have had at least one variant case linked to them over the most recent four-week period. That represents around one in 250 schools in the UK.
It said its protection teams continue to work closely with local authorities and academies to carry out surveillance to better understand and reduce transmission in these settings.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

 

[Shirley Bassett]

We got notification of our second *** on Wednesday 2nd June. It was scheduled for Monday 7th June. Went on to NHS Scotland and rescheduled it at a different venue and had the *** yesterday.

My better half asked the nurse how many they were vaccinating each day. The nurse replied that over 50% of her appointments this morning hadn’t showed up. She said it’s the around 30 age bracket that have the “I’m invincible mentality”.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

I got a email last night saying I can bring my second *** forward, as mine is only a couple of weeks away and I don't spend much time near anyone that isn't a family member I decided to let others who need it more have my early slot.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

 

[Hop_it]

Already mentioned in an earlier post that I had my second Oxford/AZ *** a couple of weeks ago. Aside from the sore arm (courtesy of Nurse Ratched), I had no other side effects this time. However, when my wife had her first Oxford/AZ *** she came out in itchy red blotches. A call to NHS 111 confirmed that they were aware of this side effect, and they advised her to take over the counter antihistamine tablets. These cleared up the rash in a couple of days.
A few days ago she attended the local vaccination centre for her second dose. She was asked about side effects from the first dose, and when she reported what had happened they refused to give the second ***. She was told that she would have to have it under medical supervision at the local hospital. She is currently waiting for the appointment. . . . . . . . . . To be continued

I am pleased to be able to report that it only took an additional 5 weeks (on top of the original 12 weeks) for my wife to get her 2nd Covid vaccination - She had it this morning

We still don't know what the problem was. She spoke to our GP surgery at least 6 times, and received various letters from the surgery and from 2 local hospitals referring her to an allergy clinic, only to then be bounced back to the GP's surgery again ??????
I have the highest regard for the NHS and the medical support that we enjoy in the UK, but this apparent inability to make a decision, and act upon it was exasperating, and verging on incompetence. . . . . . It's not like she was the first person to experience this side effect with the AZ vaccine

 

[Chippy_Tea]

 

[Chippy_Tea]

I doubt this will come as too much of a surprise to most of us.



A third wave of Covid cases is likely and "the question is how big will this wave be", Wales' health minister has warned.

Eluned Morgan said she was concerned about the Delta variant spreading after a cluster of cases in Conwy county.
And she said it would be "difficult to stop the flow from England".
A surge in Covid cases in parts of the UK is being partly driven by the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant, which was identified in India.
There are 97 cases of the Delta variant in Wales, including 35 cases in Llandudno, Llandudno Junction and Penrhyn Bay.
And children at a primary school in Merthyr Tydfil have been told to stay home for another week after a visitor tested positive for the variant.
"A third wave is likely. It will be difficult to stop the flow from England, the question is how big will this wave be," said Ms Morgan.
"We are worried that the spread of the virus is so much higher with the Delta variant and that's why the latest lifting of restrictions is in two parts.

• Indoor changes not worth the risk, FM says
• Social distancing could remain in Wales all year
• Will we need a third dose of vaccine?

"We have allowed three households to come together outdoors but we are waiting a few weeks for more data to be clearer that this variant is not spreading throughout our society and how it affects our hospitals.
"But it must be emphasised how successful the vaccination programme is and we have to learn to live with this virus and keep the NHS safe by minimising the number of patients that need hospital treatment."

More than 68% people in Wales have had a first vaccine and 37.5% have had a second, according to figures published on Friday.
Another 300,000 people could get the *** in the next two weeks, Ms Morgan told BBC Radio Cymru.
UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock told the BBC's Andrew Marr programme that the Delta variant was "more challenging".
Concerns have been raised that vaccine first doses are not as effective against the variant and that people infected with the variant could be more likely to need hospital care.

First Minister Mark Drakeford told Radio Wales' Sunday Supplement people who have not yet received a vaccination to come forward.
"There is evidence, not just in Wales but from elsewhere, that vaccination is not as powerful a defence against the Delta variant as it would be against the Kent variant which is why we are pressing ahead so quickly to make sure that we offer whatever protection vaccination can provide," he said.

• Ninth day of no deaths with Covid-19 in Wales
• Q&A: What are Wales' lockdown rules?

Mr Drakeford said he was prepared to take further action in Conwy if needed.
"We've always been open to taking local action where that is necessary. We're taking local action in Conwy at the moment with mobile testing facilities available, and a call to that local population to come forward and take advantage of that," he said.
"If further local actions are needed we won't hesitate to take them if we are advised they are necessary."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-57368803

 

[Chippy_Tea]

 

[Cheshire Cat]

I see that “our Tony” (Blair) has said fully vaccinated people should not be penalised because some people refuse the *** and others are not yet fully vaccinated. This is back to the passport which seems inevitable to me.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

That guy should never be allowed to speak publicly on any subject again -



John Prescott today turns on old boss Tony Blair to declare the Iraq War illegal.

And he makes a heartfelt apology to families of 179 dead UK soldiers for the part he played as Deputy PM.

In his Sunday Mirror column, Lord Prescott expresses “great sadness and anger”.

Of UN chief Kofi Annan ’s assessment the invasion was illegal, Lord Prescott adds: “I now believe him to be right.”

He blames Mr Blair for not allowing Cabinet ministers sufficient documentary evidence to base decisions on.

Lord Prescott says there was no paperwork even when Attorney General Lord Goldsmith told the Cabinet the war was justified.

He writes: “The Attorney General verbally announced it was legal, but provided no documentation to justify it.

"The timing was clearly designed to endorse an almost immediate action for us to go to war.”

The war cost the UK government £9.6billion and the official Iraqi death toll was around 150,000 – but other estimates put it as high as 600,000.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tony-blair-forced-illegal-war-8387288

 

[Chippy_Tea]

To the person who just reported me for posting off topic comment well it may be off topic but i stick by what i said.


Allegations of deceit
Political commentators were split as to what extent the report showed that Tony Blair had lied or deliberately misled Parliament and the public. NBC News said that the report "stops short of saying Blair lied", the chief political commentator for the Financial Times, Philip Stephens, said that Blair's "sin was one of certitude rather than deceit", and writing for Bloomberg View, Eli Lake said that the report proved Blair "didn't lie his way into Iraq". Speaking in Parliament, Corbyn said that MPs who voted for the war were "misled by a small number of leading figures in the Government" who "were none too scrupulous about how they made their case for war", and Caroline Lucas, MP for the Green Party, claimed that contradictions between public statements and private memos to Bush proved that Blair was "lying" about whether war could have been averted. Philippe Sands said the report pulled its punches but marshalled the factual evidence in such a way that an inference of lying, deceit or manipulation was possible.

Iraq Inquiry - Wikipedia