Electric cars.

Larse said:

None of that was my point, some people think it's a 'stepping stone' or better than ICE, when in effect it's not. Many PHEVs are never plugged in at all. Arguments based on whataboutery (what about trucks, trains, the rest of the world) don't carry any weight with me.

Still a pointless car in my opinion. Get a petrol or diesel if you can't use (or it doesn't suit your use case) a BEV.

Hybrids are expensive and pointless.

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I do think they'll be a necessary stepping stone for a few years, but my feelings are very mixed.

On one hand PHEVS allow people to do a school run or short commute with zero emissions and get the idea of electric power while also having the peace of mind of a tank full of petrol. I see quite a few people locally with their plug in hybrids actually plugged in.

On the other they perpetuate the idea in people's minds that you can't go very far on electricity alone, plus running two fuel types and motors they are more complex. I don't know, but I'd assume they'd be more expensive to maintain and possibly buy.

stripeyjoe said:

Why on earth would you buy a new car? That really is pointless, you would lose around £7k just driving it home!

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Over 2 million people do it every year. If nobody bought new cars, the industry would pretty much grind to a halt.

Larse said:

Over 2 million people do it every year. If nobody bought new cars, the industry would pretty much grind to a halt.

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Yep no new market = no used market

No new sales = no profits = no further investment = crap cars

I do not think it is a coincidence that as the market has shifted to lease/PCP/Salary Sacrifice etc. that the prices have shot upwards, yes the tech is betetr buts that has always been the case switch to electronic ignition over points did trigger this rise nor did ABS/ TC or Fuel Injection over carbs, the industry evolves always has always will.

Point is they have been able to charge more as fewer customers buy outright, the more that lease buy on credit whatever they can pump the prices up the industry finds new ways to make it seem like its affordable.

China (while yes state sponsored in places) have shown that EVs can be turned out for a fraction of the cost the traditional big ICE manufactures tried to charge. To a lesser extent Tesla have done the same, sadly they refuse to enter the cheaper segments to protect the brand.

Its much like housing prices, new build price are batshit crazy for decades now, so what did finance sector do? just make it easier to borrow more its vicious circle and not sure how we get of the merry go round now.

Larse said:

Over 2 million people do it every year. If nobody bought new cars, the industry would pretty much grind to a halt.

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Only 2 million, is that why the auto industry is in that famous creek, or is it because people will not be pushed into buying an EV when they already have perfectly good ice cars, the German auto makers are on their knees almost begging for mercy, the pipe dream of net zero is just a dream that can never be reached, i will stick with hydrogen is the way forward, we just installed a new combi boiler that is hydrogen ready, people like Ed Milliband and the fruit cakes in the EU are wrong

Rodcx500z said:

Only 2 million, is that why the auto industry is in that famous creek, or is it because people will not be pushed into buying an EV when they already have perfectly good ice cars, the German auto makers are on their knees almost begging for mercy, the pipe dream of net zero is just a dream that can never be reached, i will stick with hydrogen is the way forward, we just installed a new combi boiler that is hydrogen ready, people like Ed Milliband and the fruit cakes in the EU are wrong

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Hydrogen has its place and do think it will part of the future, the military are exploring for mobile power generation on the battlefield as modern kit and weapons need power.

The only issue for domestic systems is transporting it, existing natural gas networks will leak substantially with hydrogen.

For commercial applications i think its the way ahead, small rework and the existing gas powered generating stations could run on Hydrogen and be fully reactive to plug gaps where renewable's do not produce. The flat NO to hydrogen is wrong and needs to be looked at IMHO

Larse said:

Over 2 million people do it every year. If nobody bought new cars, the industry would pretty much grind to a halt.

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They don't buy them, the PCP or loan company do... The borrow them for three years, pay through the nose and then they get sold for around 2/3rds the purchase price.

stripeyjoe said:

They don't buy them, the PCP or loan company do... The borrow them for three years, pay through the nose and then they get sold for around 2/3rds the purchase price.

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There are going to be some good bargains as people buy new BEV on PCP and used 3 year old ones flood the market.

Chippy_Tea said:

There are going to be some good bargains as people buy new BEV on PCP and used 3 year old ones flood the market.

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The market sets the prices the 4 year old Kona I took on PCP was still sticker price £17k but the monthly payments were reasonable, the sticker price has dropped now there is more used stock.
If the new supp;y slows down the used prices will stall and not drop as they should

Chippy_Tea said:

There are going to be some good bargains as people buy new BEV on PCP and used 3 year old ones flood the market.

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From my very recent experience looking in this area I don't know that there are any bargains out there on the used market (well apart from some basically new Polestars being dumped out as used), but in the past year there was a noticeable uptick in the availability of BEVs on the 2nd hand market at the 3-4 year old mark that were useful for my purposes.

Not sure if relevant, but taking a quick look at Autotrader you get the following number of cars for sale:
2016: 109
2017: 183
2018: 157
2019: 473
2020: 1896
2021: 4666
2022: 2737
2023: 3403
2024: 3691
(BEVs only; >500 miles driven; Any battery size)

foxy said:

Well Toyota reckon they are close to a battery with a range of 750k and a 10 minute charge.

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foxy said:

There is no way I would be hurrying to get an EV at the present time. Technology is moving far too fast.

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Actually I'm not sure I would say that. We've got to the stage where we have the basics in place, where ranges are now at the bottom end of ICE cars (I've had an ICE car that could barely scrape 270 miles from a tank) - and more importantly the ranges are more than >90% of people do in a day in the UK or US. And prices are coming down, such that in some cases (like the Frontera) they're the same for ICE or electric, and in most cases the total cost including fueling at home is the same or less for electric.

It's not perfect, but we're at the stage where the technology of new EVs is good enough for most people, as evidenced by 90% of new cars in Norway being electric. It's not all sunshine, but the cars are good enough for most people and that "good enough" technology is going to grind down in price relative to ICE.

Yes there's solid state batteries and others on the horizon, but I'd think of them as supercharged V8s - it's great that they exist and allow cars to do 0-60 in 4 seconds, but we don't put V8s in every car because they are more expensive and most people don't need 0-60 in 4 seconds, they'd rather have a good enough car that was cheaper. Solid state batteries will have their place in premium cars and will eventually trickle down to runabouts, but it will be more like the spread of fuel injection or ABS rather than a sudden rush within 2-3 years.

The big unknown is how expensive they will be, all we know is that to start with they will cost quite a lot more than current batteries.

foxy said:

It is still going to be a big pull on the grid all electric vehicles.

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It's not a negligible problem, particularly for "en route" charging, but longer ranges will reduce the need for quick charging en route, over 85% of charging currently happens at night though, and vehicle-to-grid allows EVs to help out the grid at peak times. Elsewhere I calculated that electrifying all UK road transport would need the equivalent of 18GW continuous, or 54GW for 8 hours a day, which is doable- but that was based on an average efficiency of 3 miles/kWh, we're now starting to see cars claiming 5 miles/kWh. Grid will come under local strain, but again it's not rocket science to fix, again you can look at Norway for how they've rolled out chargers.

What i found was sticker price had no real correlation to the monthly PCP price.

The projected values and manufacturer warranty have a big impact as well

My 2020 Kona EV 64Kw was under 40k miles, in decent condition had sticker price around £17k but the monthly PCP even with very low deposit worked out way cheaper than an ICE, part of the reason was the warranty, the car itself only has 5 years, but the battery has 8 tears and as i will return it before then it helps to keep resale a viable option apparently.

Yes as more come onto the market the prices should drop, for me that a win win, the speed of innovation means EVs get outdated VERT quickly, again unless you REALLY need 150Kwh charging or over 250 miles range then the so called previous versions are more than fit for purpose and will start to offer decent value for money.

Only future fly in the ointment is the ridiculous expensive car tax supplement lasting 5 years, this will affect used EVs in the coming years as the value is the LIST price plus any options , so things like cut price Polestar or MG will assessed on list price not actual sale price.

Ironically i can see it changing the Lease market as the first years VED is £10 = VED £190, yet from year 2 its £190 (rising to £195) PLUS £410 expensive car supplement means £600 per year until the car is 5 years old.

Yet to be confirmed but has been predicted a 12 month deal might work out as cheap per month as a 24, 36 or 48 month term, this could further change the used market stock.

Speaking personally i will not take on a used car that attracts a VED bill over £600 per year, this starts to eat into any savings that an EV could deliver its bonkers approach to the uptake of EVs

Rodcx500z said:

i will stick with hydrogen is the way forward, we just installed a new combi boiler that is hydrogen ready, people like Ed Milliband and the fruit cakes in the EU are wrong

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And how will that hydrogen get to you, you're already seeing cities planning to shut down their gas grid, for instance Mannheim plan to shut down theirs by 2035 which has left people who bet on hydrogen stuffed :
https://www.cleanenergywire.org/new...-gas-grid-2035-encourages-heat-pump-purchases

Hydrogen has uses, but they're niche ones that will be more expensive in the same way that LPG is a niche fuel for heating - the mainstream will be electric. What hydrogen is available will be used in centralised industrial facilities like chemical plants - and just replacing existing fossil hydrogen with green hydrogen will take 10% of our electricity capacity.

It's already up and running in Holland and Fife in Scotland using the existing pipe network, i will not jump on the band wagon or believe anything that nut job Milliband says

It's already up and running in Holland and Fife in Scotland using the existing pipe network, i will not jump on the band wagon or believe anything that nut job Milliband says

Rodcx500z said:

It's already up and running in Holland and Fife in Scotland using the existing pipe network, i will not jump on the band wagon or believe anything that nut job Milliband says

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I am well aware of the Fife trial, it has been delayed as supply chain issue and safety reports were hidden an suppressed.

The explosion risk in domestic settings is a risk that SGN tried to hide the redacted the safety reports

Domestic Gas supplies need to be upgraded with additional safety kit and leak detection, commercial lines had to be internally relined to stop massive loses in the system, as hydrogen escapes where natural gas does not

Hydrogen has many plus points but not a silver bullet.

i fully support the excess renewable's being used to create green hydrogen rather than stored in hugely expensive battery farms

JockyBrewer said:

From my very recent experience looking in this area I don't know that there are any bargains out there on the used market (well apart from some basically new Polestars being dumped out as used), but in the past year there was a noticeable uptick in the availability of BEVs on the 2nd hand market at the 3-4 year old mark that were useful for my purposes.

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I meant in a few years time when we BEV become more popular

Forgive the continuing OTness but this is a good review of the science of hydrogen heating looking at 54 independent studies, which :
assesses the independent scientific evidence on the viability of heating with hydrogen and concludes that at best hydrogen will play a niche role for heating buildings. The findings suggest that future policies should focus primarily on tried and tested technologies such as heat pumps and district heating while maintaining a focus on improving energy efficiency of buildings.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2949790623000101

Northern_Brewer said:

Forgive the continuing OTness but this is a good review of the science of hydrogen heating looking at 54 independent studies, which :
assesses the independent scientific evidence on the viability of heating with hydrogen and concludes that at best hydrogen will play a niche role for heating buildings. The findings suggest that future policies should focus primarily on tried and tested technologies such as heat pumps and district heating while maintaining a focus on improving energy efficiency of buildings.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2949790623000101

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Very interesting if long read, my only concern is heatpumps have been tried in several local authorities on mass in Scotland, the results were dire with lower temperatures the air source heat pumps consumed a massive amount of electricity and forced hundreds onto debt for energy. vast number have now been taken offline and replaced by gas boilers.
This is well documented and has forced the Scottish Government to re think the strategy up here.
To be clear this was not simulation or modelling the Scottish Government followed the scientific advice and projections, BUT they did not match up.

yes it has been claimed the new high ouptut heat pumps may have been better suited, but the damage has been done.

Lord Willie Haughey who owns City Refrigeration (who supply and it heatpumps) has been very clear the Scottish Climate does not suit air source heat pumps even tho its his core business he advises not to fit them in areas where the temperature drops below 5C.
If the guy who sells them says its not the answer I am confused how other say different.

if read the study it talks about using hydrogen to supplement heat pumps this is the big red flag so need a heat pump AND a hydrogen boiler!

I do not know what the best solution is as going all electric places a massive strain on the grid and geographical location of parts of Scotland means that upgrading the power infrastructure would incur eye watering costs and take years.

Until there is a genuine option Gas is the only viable option cost wise, short term I think they should mix 10 or 20% of gas with Hydrogen, that would offer an immediate reduction in gas usage and emissions at least until a better solution is found.

Ironically council houses up here (maybe UK wide?) used to fit old bulky storage heaters that drew power at night on a cheaper rate and heated the big clay or concrete slabs, this was deemed in efficient then driven towards gas boilers now we have to ditch them.

​

Our new boiler is gas/ hydrogen ready

Rodcx500z said:

Only 2 million, is that why the auto industry is in that famous creek, or is it because people will not be pushed into buying an EV when they already have perfectly good ice cars, the German auto makers are on their knees almost begging for mercy, the pipe dream of net zero is just a dream that can never be reached, i will stick with hydrogen is the way forward, we just installed a new combi boiler that is hydrogen ready, people like Ed Milliband and the fruit cakes in the EU are wrong

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Hydrogen is the greatest joke in the history of vehicle propulsion. Use lots of electricity to make hydrogen, process it into a form suitable for use in a vehicle and end up producing less than 40% of the electricity at the wheels that you started out with. Bonkers.