The AA chart shows it costs more to charge an EV and who wants to sit in a car for the time it takes to charge every time, home charging fine using public chargers all the time is just a ball ache and it's never going to happen
Electric cars.
- Thread starter Polcho
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Yet again you are cherry picking how many normal people on avarage or below wage can afford a tesla
3 years old but due to the mileage will have more charging cycles, age is not an issue with modern batteries as long as they are not left unused at very low or very high charge there is no evidence that deg is such an issue.
As said the first gen Nissan leaf and others did not have a sufficient upper and lower buffer and no thermal management and do suffer high deg not disputing that for a second but look at the price of these vehicles they fell off the cliff where as next gen cars are still holding strong. these car can have batteries replaced and upgraded, but the design flaws in the battery management system will not fix this and will occur again
A used Tesla is now a great buy the certified used from Tesla are fully refurbished and have updated software etc if they had come down at time i bought mine I would have gone that way. They seem to hold up very well and full heath report is provided.
Likewise Kia/Hyundai EV models from 2018 are a good buy as well, same for MG EVs
Consumers will get savvy a simple OBDII reader can access the EV and check its battery State of Health (SOH), I know if i come to change i will request to see this or ask to use my reader to check, not so easy to do that with an ICE
You can check the battery's state of health before you buy. There are OBD scanners that will give that info. Nissan Leafs have a bar graph in the driver's display that also gives this at a glance. No mystery. You can buy your EV happy in the knowledge that it has sufficient battery health for your needs. Or walk away if not.
What costs 40k? A new EV? Why are you comparing this with a 7 year old banger?
30. So one in 300. Not insignificant when you consider it's 20 times more likely to happen than with a BEV. Which was my point about misinformation.
Hardly cherry picking since you had the most economical ICE car to compare with. But if you want affordable (goal post shift right there) then the Dacia Spring (£15k new) would be 24kWh/100 miles or 11.7p a mile.
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The AA chart is clearly based on averages. I've taken a specific model (and added another above) and proven that with the right car choice you can match the most economical ICE cars, even with public charging. And that was the point. Whether you want to do that is up to you, I've clearly shown it's both possible and affordable.
Unless you want to challenge my figures. In which case go right ahead. I'll wait.
The problem is as we are forced out of our dirty cars those on low pay will have to buy these cars as they cannot afford the modern ones with the long lasting batteries.
The average cost of a new BEV is 46 grand.
I would but I have nowhere to charge it
You need to define 'affordable'.
Dacia Spring £15k - 165km range
Leapmotor T03 £16k - 240km
Citreon e-C3 £22k - 260km
Renault 5 e-Tech £22k - 255km
Fiat Grande Panda £22k - 250km
Hyundai Inster £23k - 250km
I could keep going, there are quite a few more.
And yes, the average price of a new EV is weighted towards the top end, mostly because of the historical cost of batteries. But the trend in the last year or two has been for lower priced EVs due to the substantial decrease in the cost of battery production. Battery prices have dropped 90% in the last 15 years and are expected to fall even further in the next two years.
Even that is way too expensive for most people on low pay, this is what I am trying to get across these people are going to have no choice but to buy the cheapest EV they can find even original Zoe and Leaf are still too expensive for those people we are talking people who pay a couple of grand max for a runabout.
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Hold the ICE ban will only cover NEW ICE from 2030/2035/20??
That a minimum of 6 years away by then these 2nd gen EVs will over 12 years old and will be higher mileage and selling as used stock. at lower prices not sure how low they will get yet
There Nothing to stop you continuing ICE beyond 2030 as you state you are not talking about used cars, EVs are still a tiny part of the car fleet it will take generations to fully change over.
I fully expect in 3.5 years time to upgrade mine to one of the current modes with faster charging etc, but if a good ICE works out a better deal i may consider it as well, given the HUGE number of ICE already out there I can see a tightening of emissions regs yes and rises in VED bit they can't just say no more ICE simply put EC supply will not be able to meet demand and as you say there is not the money to just replace all ICE this more a make the change if you can ie have a home charger and when you are changing car.
some predict diesels to plummet in value as we reach ICE ban personally if that happens i will scoop one up and run it until it dies if cheap enough.
as stated EVs offer the chance to check battery before you buy will be a great bargaining tool for used if you can prove its battery state.
lets take a 2023 Hyundia Kona EV by 2030 will be 7 years old and started life with 301 mile range lets assume 10% deg so still a 270 mile range car and will still have a warranty on the battery mileage depending (8yrs 100k). No idea what value they will command but they will co,me onto the market as they are ou there lots on lease and PCP tend to get the 0-3 years deal then the 3-8 years PCP deals outside this they are not normally eligible for PCP so value drops again. For used buyer its win win.
Nothing in current plans to FORCE drivers out of ICE the only ones who were forced were the manufacturers and they have demonstrated there is not the demand for the current offerings.
They can't afford and wont but I would love to see the UK Government lean in and partially subsidise UK made EVs and get them affordable and make it a viable option and help rebuild our failing car industry.
Not just the manufacture of EV, but also to have the government sponsor or support battery exchange and refurbishment centres all across the UK, drive the costs down and keep the skills in the UK.
That a minimum of 6 years away by then these 2nd gen EVs will over 12 years old and will be higher mileage and selling as used stock. at lower prices not sure how low they will get yet
There Nothing to stop you continuing ICE beyond 2030 as you state you are not talking about used cars, EVs are still a tiny part of the car fleet it will take generations to fully change over.
I fully expect in 3.5 years time to upgrade mine to one of the current modes with faster charging etc, but if a good ICE works out a better deal i may consider it as well, given the HUGE number of ICE already out there I can see a tightening of emissions regs yes and rises in VED bit they can't just say no more ICE simply put EC supply will not be able to meet demand and as you say there is not the money to just replace all ICE this more a make the change if you can ie have a home charger and when you are changing car.
some predict diesels to plummet in value as we reach ICE ban personally if that happens i will scoop one up and run it until it dies if cheap enough.
as stated EVs offer the chance to check battery before you buy will be a great bargaining tool for used if you can prove its battery state.
lets take a 2023 Hyundia Kona EV by 2030 will be 7 years old and started life with 301 mile range lets assume 10% deg so still a 270 mile range car and will still have a warranty on the battery mileage depending (8yrs 100k). No idea what value they will command but they will co,me onto the market as they are ou there lots on lease and PCP tend to get the 0-3 years deal then the 3-8 years PCP deals outside this they are not normally eligible for PCP so value drops again. For used buyer its win win.
Nothing in current plans to FORCE drivers out of ICE the only ones who were forced were the manufacturers and they have demonstrated there is not the demand for the current offerings.
They can't afford and wont but I would love to see the UK Government lean in and partially subsidise UK made EVs and get them affordable and make it a viable option and help rebuild our failing car industry.
Not just the manufacture of EV, but also to have the government sponsor or support battery exchange and refurbishment centres all across the UK, drive the costs down and keep the skills in the UK.
They will just turn it the other way and penalise those that don’t change I suppose.
We're bouncing around from edge case to edge case amid the ever shifting goal posts. Remember we started out talking about the 20 million people who can accommodate home EV charging? Whilst you kept focusing on those who can't as if they were the majority. Now having quoted the average cost of a new EV at £46k we're off at the edge again at £2k when it was pointed out that there are many affordable EV's below £25k.
As I said before, 2 million new cars are bought every year. Why are people who buy bangers even in this conversation? They can come into it in ten years time when there are plenty of up to 15 year old EVs available for that price.
Which would probably manifest as higher taxes on fossil fuels. I would not be in favour of this as it usually impacts the less well off most. Better to concentrate on the new car market and apply your sticks there.
Or Road charging for those vehicles, like ULEZ.
Yeah. Or Crit'Air in France.
Gives people the choice of getting a ZEV or public transport.
I will do the same they cannot put diesel up or the haulage industry would be up in arms and the price for bus and train travel would have to rise could be some nice bargains about.
I posted this before i read your post, they cannot inflate the price of diesel to force us out of our oil burners.
We’re still 10 years from only zero emission vehicles being sold.
The average age of a vehicle on the road in the UK is 9 years, and I believe most scrapped vehicles are 14-16 years old.
So it’s quite possible the last petrol cars will be on the road until 2050ish which is really when everyone will be forced to go electric.
The average age of a vehicle on the road in the UK is 9 years, and I believe most scrapped vehicles are 14-16 years old.
So it’s quite possible the last petrol cars will be on the road until 2050ish which is really when everyone will be forced to go electric.
Tesla model 3 was first released 7 years ago, and whilst yes the model 3 isn't a cheap city runabout, the battery chemistry and battery management system is indicative of most EVs sold between 2017 and now.
(A lot are switching to lfp chemistry but we'll come on to that.)
So battery life of a model 3 and the model Y using NCM batteries is averaging 15% after 200,000 miles. And they have a very large dataset to reference, not like an average of 10 cars.
The even earlier released x and s using the same battery tech is showing only 12% Deg on average over 200,000 miles.
See here https://insideevs.com/news/723734/tesla-model-3y-battery-capacity-degradation-200000miles/
What does this tell us? That it can be reliably predicted for customers to expect their EV that started life with a 250mile range to still have 220 miles of range after 200,000 miles.
The average car mileage at scrappage in Europe is 150,000 miles, therefore the batteries will generally outlast the car
2 points from this, a scrapped ev will have a much higher value than a scrapped ice. Not only because the batteries can be used as power walls, but if not used for that, the materials are valuable for recycling the materials. More likely what will happen is the recyclers will test scrapped battery units and banks of cells averaging over 90% capacity will be used for the aftermarket spares supply for older vehicles and for remanufacturing battery packs. The rest will be recycled more traditionally. Remanufacturing batteries, repairing banks of cells and keeping battery packs going wayyyyyy past 200,000 miles will be much cheaper replacement than going back to Tesla or Kia for a replacement. Circular economy and all that
Lfp batteries by their very chemistry are more durable than NCM and NCA batteries. They are expected to last 50-75% longer than NCM/A due to their lower energy density and greater resistance to heat degradation. And its been proven in industry for years, so saying 'ah but they've only been fitted to EVs for 5 year's doesn't wash, as the usage of lfp batteries in industry to be charged up to max, then used gradually over many thousands of cycles is almost identical in use case.
So by the time your two grand ******* has started out as a last of the line ice 2030 new car, it will be nearly 2040.
So you don't have to worry about lack of affordable belt in oil petrol and diesel clatter-boxes for another 15 years or so
(A lot are switching to lfp chemistry but we'll come on to that.)
So battery life of a model 3 and the model Y using NCM batteries is averaging 15% after 200,000 miles. And they have a very large dataset to reference, not like an average of 10 cars.
The even earlier released x and s using the same battery tech is showing only 12% Deg on average over 200,000 miles.
See here https://insideevs.com/news/723734/tesla-model-3y-battery-capacity-degradation-200000miles/
What does this tell us? That it can be reliably predicted for customers to expect their EV that started life with a 250mile range to still have 220 miles of range after 200,000 miles.
The average car mileage at scrappage in Europe is 150,000 miles, therefore the batteries will generally outlast the car
2 points from this, a scrapped ev will have a much higher value than a scrapped ice. Not only because the batteries can be used as power walls, but if not used for that, the materials are valuable for recycling the materials. More likely what will happen is the recyclers will test scrapped battery units and banks of cells averaging over 90% capacity will be used for the aftermarket spares supply for older vehicles and for remanufacturing battery packs. The rest will be recycled more traditionally. Remanufacturing batteries, repairing banks of cells and keeping battery packs going wayyyyyy past 200,000 miles will be much cheaper replacement than going back to Tesla or Kia for a replacement. Circular economy and all that
Lfp batteries by their very chemistry are more durable than NCM and NCA batteries. They are expected to last 50-75% longer than NCM/A due to their lower energy density and greater resistance to heat degradation. And its been proven in industry for years, so saying 'ah but they've only been fitted to EVs for 5 year's doesn't wash, as the usage of lfp batteries in industry to be charged up to max, then used gradually over many thousands of cycles is almost identical in use case.
So by the time your two grand ******* has started out as a last of the line ice 2030 new car, it will be nearly 2040.
So you don't have to worry about lack of affordable belt in oil petrol and diesel clatter-boxes for another 15 years or so
