Sorry if you feel the projections are unfounded yes local elections are not 100% accurate in relation to general elections do not dispute that at all. They are simply projections, as correctly stated they do not include Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland.
But the pollsters who are generally pretty close do use local elections as a indicator of voting trends amongst other measurables.
There is the perception that Labour will make massive gains in Scotland, do I think they will make gains yes, but from my previous roles working in intergovernmental relations there are large majority of voters in devolved areas, who have no interest in Westminster elections and do not vote or use a protest vote.
One thing that is very clear from the English local elections, is a large support for parties who have taken a strong approach to the Gaza crisis, this split the labour vote considerably.
Also the disconnect between UK Labour and Scottish Labour is very clear not only in policy but political values.
As the Tory's will now push the election as far back as possible there is a lot of ground to cover and things can change yet.
Nothing is decided yet
But the pollsters who are generally pretty close do use local elections as a indicator of voting trends amongst other measurables.
There is the perception that Labour will make massive gains in Scotland, do I think they will make gains yes, but from my previous roles working in intergovernmental relations there are large majority of voters in devolved areas, who have no interest in Westminster elections and do not vote or use a protest vote.
One thing that is very clear from the English local elections, is a large support for parties who have taken a strong approach to the Gaza crisis, this split the labour vote considerably.
Also the disconnect between UK Labour and Scottish Labour is very clear not only in policy but political values.
As the Tory's will now push the election as far back as possible there is a lot of ground to cover and things can change yet.
Nothing is decided yet