Grain prices creeping up.

[The Baron]

It was announced last year that prices would go up on the 1st of Jan massively I think Geterbrewed released a video on Youtube pre-empting this and many breweries were buying and storing at the back end of last year.
A reply would be nice though AA as it was £24 last week and it is more than I expected?

 

[chopps]

We're buying by the tonne direct from the maltster. 40 sacks every couple of months.
My 2023 prices compared to 2022 - Pale +31%, Maris Otter +26%, Malted Wheat +29%, Crystals +17%, Oats +27%.
Now also charging for delivery which was 'free' in 2022.

 

[The Baron]

I think this is the Geterbrewed Blog with a video content at the bottom if it does interest anybody, it was released in October 2022
https://www.geterbrewed.com/blog/2022/10/30/secure-malt-prices-for-2023-with-geterbrewed/

 

[samale]

We're buying by the tonne direct from the maltster. 40 sacks every couple of months.
My 2023 prices compared to 2022 - Pale +31%, Maris Otter +26%, Malted Wheat +29%, Crystals +17%, Oats +27%.
Now also charging for delivery which was 'free' in 2022.

How can this be passed of to the costumer along with the increased in electricity. If the price of a pint keeps going up at some stage people will be priced out. I know profit margins are already tight

 

[Agentgonzo]

How can this be passed of to the costumer along with the increased in electricity. If the price of a pint keeps going up at some stage people will be priced out. I know profit margins are already tight

Largely, expect the price of a pint to go up. I was in America recently and beers were $7-10 per US pint.
All the more reason to homebrew!

 

[The Baron]

The market is going to be reduced by breweries falling by the wayside, and I thin we will be seeing a £2 lift on most craft beers.
The homebrewer will still be able to make a pint for sub 50p
4.5kg of grain £7.20
100g of Hops £6 dependant on style
£1 for yeast if re-used
£2 for heating and other bits
works out at approx 42p for a 19ltr batch per bottle.
Not easy to swallow but it is what it is

 

[The Baron]

Largely, expect the price of a pint to go up. I was in America recently and beers were $7-10 per US pint.
All the more reason to homebrew!

I went around Leeds last week and it was roughly £4.20 to £5.50 a pint so would expect +£2 myself but only time will tell.
That was in the good craft pubs Whitelocks, Scarborough Tap etc

 

[Agentgonzo]

The market is going to be reduced by breweries falling by the wayside, and I thin we will be seeing a £2 lift on most craft beers.

I think a lot of craft breweries will go under. There have been a lot of new micros enter the market in the last 10 years as craft beer got more popular. With prices going up and the recession hitting I think the demand is going to drop quicker than it went up. And there just won't be the market to support it - especially for those who brew American-style fad beers with tons and tons of expensive hops who will just get squeezed out of very tight market
.

 

[The Baron]

Unfortunately as you say AA too many have jumped on a bandwagon that was rolling and at sometime it is going to stop and slow down. Now with added costs the **** will hit the fan and the desire by some to hop beyond hopping has created a monster that is out of control.
Hops are the most expensive item in most craft beers and the amounts will have to be trimmed to keep the prices down but will the consumer accept it or will it start a revival of cheaper beers like Bitters/Milds etc

 

[vexedben]

We're buying by the tonne direct from the maltster. 40 sacks every couple of months.
My 2023 prices compared to 2022 - Pale +31%, Maris Otter +26%, Malted Wheat +29%, Crystals +17%, Oats +27%.
Now also charging for delivery which was 'free' in 2022.

Yep, we have a similar problem. Ended up with 6 tonne delivered before Christmas but that’s nearly all gone. End up ordering in 3 tonne each time to maximise the delivery charges now. *sigh*

 

[chopps]

How can this be passed of to the costumer along with the increased in electricity. If the price of a pint keeps going up at some stage people will be priced out. I know profit margins are already tight

Having done the maths, for our particular model the increase in grain price is (surprisingly) not a significant burden. e.g. on a typical cask run, the new 2023 grain prices add about £1.70 per 9G cask. We could swallow that. The utility prices and increased rent add about £10 per cask, and as you say margins are tight anyway so we will need to have some price conversations.
Even if you said £12 per cask increase to the pub, it's well under a 20 per pint increase to them. But then they have massive utility and other cost increases too, so it multiplies up pretty quickly by the time it's in a glass and in your hand.

 

[Rodcx500z]

Quick question, why do hops need to go up in price, are they not grown outside or am i missing something

 

[chopps]

I think a lot of craft breweries will go under. There have been a lot of new micros enter the market in the last 10 years as craft beer got more popular. With prices going up and the recession hitting I think the demand is going to drop quicker than it went up. And there just won't be the market to support it - especially for those who brew American-style fad beers with tons and tons of expensive hops who will just get squeezed out of very tight market
.

Yep. And it's happening now. Look for Steve at Beer Nouveau's list of closures.
Even a moderately hopped ale, my main one for example, the hops are expensive but the duty is a bigger portion.
I don't think I'm revealing any secrets, I've talked about it before, but the batch ingredient cost for Murgy is about £150. Not including finings and such. Very roughly £60 ish hops, £60 ish grain, £20 ish yeast. And then £132 duty. And electric and packaging and...

 

[AJA]

Hops are expensive because last year's weather was calamitous. Yields for some hop strains down over 50%. Most of this harvest will go on contracts, leaving very little for the homebrewer on the spot market.

 

[Stu's Brews]

Quick question, why do hops need to go up in price, are they not grown outside or am i missing something

I think the two biggest factors are the energy used in the processing (drying / pelletising) and transportation. There's then potentially things like increased labour costs.

 

[AJA]

It also makes no sense to talk about supply side impact on prices alone, like every media article alludes to.
In terms of demand, people have less disposable income this year, leading to consuming less beer, which has a downward impact on prices and margins, and much less beer will be sold as a result of the combination of these factors.
The under diversified and overleveraged small breweries will not survive unfortunately.

 

[chopps]

https://beernouveau.co.uk/2023-brewery-closures/

 

[user 4749]

I was looking at Minch Malt last week it was £24 thats a big jump £40 . GEB are still £26.95 for Crisps Best Ale Malt if anyone is ordering

 

[Leon103]

I think a lot of craft breweries will go under. There have been a lot of new micros enter the market in the last 10 years as craft beer got more popular. With prices going up and the recession hitting I think the demand is going to drop quicker than it went up. And there just won't be the market to support it - especially for those who brew American-style fad beers with tons and tons of expensive hops who will just get squeezed out of very tight market
.

Most of the news is showing a handful a week for the last month or so. At least Wild Beer was saved

 

[Leon103]

I was looking at Minch Malt last week it was £24 thats a big jump £40 . GEB are still £26.95 for Crisps Best Ale Malt if anyone is ordering

I saw that last week. May order at that price