Free Scotland

[Brew_DD2]

Scotland would still now be struggling to meet the criteria required to join the EU.

Evidence and citation?

 

[foxy]

You maybe missed the GDP chart a few pages back.

Also Scotland doesn't have a balance of payments. Certainly not one that can properly calculated without Treasury transparency.

Net Fiscal Balance 2021-22

This is the difference between total revenue and total public sector expenditure including capital investment. The net fiscal balance:

• Was a deficit of 12.3% of GDP (£23.7 billion)
• When excluding the North Sea, was a deficit of 15.7% of GDP (£27.2 billion)

 

[TrevTheBev]

EXACTLY the same evidence he has that Scotland would fail.

And they would !!

 

[Brew_DD2]

Net Fiscal Balance 2021-22
This is the difference between total revenue and total public sector expenditure including capital investment. The net fiscal balance:

• Was a deficit of 12.3% of GDP (£23.7 billion)
• When excluding the North Sea, was a deficit of 15.7% of GDP (£27.2 billion)

Accounting trick. Inaccurately apportioned debt payments.

 

[foxy]

Accounting trick. Inaccurately apportioned debt payments.

From the Scottish Government, I doubt they would be making the accounts worse than they are.

 

[Brew_DD2]

From the Scottish Government, I doubt they would be making the accounts worse than they are.

You can only piss with the **** you've got. Deficits are perfectly normal regardless. Scotland currently has zero borrowing powers. Only has power to adjust income tax.

What's Australia's current deficit?

 

[peter.millburn]

What evidence have you got that Brexit will be successful.

Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan.........

 

[Brewnaldo]

It's a shame that the thread was conducted so well before and has now descended into this.

Guess it's indicative of how societies discourse goes these days though. Far too often, people get a free pass to just blurt their opinions into an arguement which they present as fact, and refuse to recognise gaps in their knowledge or provide anything to back up what they are saying.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion of course, but don't be surprised if your ill informed one gets challenged.... Or just laughed out of the room....

 

[foxy]

You can only **** with the **** you've got. Deficits are perfectly normal regardless. Scotland currently has zero borrowing powers. Only has power to adjust income tax.

What's Australia's current deficit?

When the Howard government left office Australia had a surplus of 20 billion, the consecutive Labor governments soon whittled that into a deficit. But Australia doesn't need to breakaway from anyone. If Scotland wants independence surely there has to be a sound financial reason for breaking away. Something which those arguing for independence fails to address.

 

[Brew_DD2]

there has to be a sound financial reason for breaking away

Says who? As long as it's not a financial basket case (and there is little evidence it would be), being able to develop policy and fund it as we see fit as a country, is reason enough to seek political independence.

A sound financial footing will be required, but it's not the reason for seeking independence. I also don't think anyone is under any illusions that Scotland will be drowning in more cash than it knows what to do with post-independence. Any spending commitments will be decided by a government elected by the people of Scotland.

 

[foxy]

Says who? As long as it's not a financial basket case (and there is little evidence it would be), being able to develop policy and fund it as we see fit as a country, is reason enough to seek political independence.

I think there is more evidence that going it alone would be financially destructive, even more so if wanting to tie up with the EU.
Maybe you know something that we don't know as to why Scotland would be better off as an independent nation.

 

[Bosch]

Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan.........

Did Canada, New Zealand and Japan leave the EU?

 

[Bosch]

Well my father is from the South. The problem is more complex, the way I see it forgetting about religion is are the people from the South any different to those in the North?

Not really, no.
People don't magically transform when they cross a border.

 

[Bosch]

One thing to remember we are all tribes.

Is this from 'The Frankie goes to Hollywood' school of International affairs

 

[Polcho]

The border would be interesting, I wonder how that would work.

 

[pilgrimhudd]

The border would be interesting, I wonder how that would work.

Something like this I should imagine.

 

[foxy]

Something like this I should imagine.

A cricket match would serve better.

 

[LeeH]

This should have been shut down after the first post.

 

[StJayJay]

Anybody who thinks they know what would happen if Scotland left the UK, good or bad, is kidding themself. We have no evidence, just opinion and conjecture, nothing that we could accurately model. There’s no baseline to refer to with similar data from modern times based on other examples of a region seceding from a developed nation. Most longterm economic predictions are just guesswork and are little more accurate than a flip of a coun. If Scotland were to become independent tomorrow, we wouldn’t be able to begin to judge the success or failure for decades. Even then, you are comparing something that has happened with a hypothetical, an alternative history. You may have more data on how other countries have fared over the period but you’ll not be comparing like for like.
It’s the same with Brexit, we won’t begin to really know the long term macro impact for years when economic historians unpick the various strands, even then there will be a healthy amount of philosophising. People on either side will of course point to “evidence” that they were right but the whole thing is one big exercise in confirmation bias.
It’s better to come to terms with the fact that we don’t know what will happen, we can’t know, anything else is just opinion and rhetoric.
My opinion is that I would prefer to stay part of the UK. I am from England, albeit with Scottish, Welsh and Irish ancestry, but have a nice life up here with my Scottish wife and mongrel kids, I certainly don’t feel oppressed or disenfranchised (or living in a colony), even though my elective representatives in holyrood and London are not who I personally voted for. I’ve always felt British rather than England. My desire to remain is based on “better the devil you know” thinking. It could improve things, it could worsen things, things could bump along the same, I’d rather just not roll the dice.

 

[Clarence]

A cricket match would serve better.

... and be a bit quicker.
What a load of old mincing. Didn't realise they appreciated camp in those parts. A squad of lads in busbies on the one hand opposed by a team of bekilted dervishes on the other, all carefully choreographed and strutting their stuff to the whine of Tchaikovsky's "Prance of the Sugarplum Haggises" rendered by a single highland piper.
The stuff of legend.