Do you think the restrictions will be loosened so we can spend Easter with ours families?
There is zero chance of restrictions being relaxed - any change to the current schedule will be in the form of tightening, not loosening as any "shock" will always be bad. Whether that's a hiccup in vaccine supply as we've seen this week, or (the real threat) a variant emerges which breaks the vaccine sufficiently that everyone needs another *** to counter it.
Getting one *** into the over 50s is a big milestone, it cuts deaths by 90%, but doesn't do much for the epidemic of long Covid that we're facing. And even after 2 months of pretty hard lockdown, there's still plenty of virus going around . We're about back where we were in October when tiers were imposed, the M62 corridor in particular is still not looking great. Take the foot of the gas now, and we'll see a resurgence of cases if not deaths, as a lot of Europe is now experiencing with a third wave.
Its difficult to predict but I heard they are moving on to the over 50's and if they are getting through a minimum of half a million a day it cannot be long before they let families meet again even if in a restricted way.
Looks like they'll pretty much get first jabs into the over 50's by the end of March - but there was always going to be a pause then, just because the focus is then going to switch to getting second jabs into the over 50's, and first jabs for under 50's will come from whatever jabbing capacity is left over. Which was mostly going to come from the AZ delivery from India, but without that it's understandable they're being cautious and effectively saying "no under 50 jabs until the end of April" for the time being. There probably will be some, but second jabs are the priority right now.
My parents have both had the *** and i guess that goes for most here, if i was to go to see them this Easter (and keep a distance) i don't see why i would pose more of a threat than if i went to see them in a care home which they are now allowing with restrictions.
Well after 29 March we'll be into Step 1 and the rule of 6 or 2 households outside. But you've got to be a bit careful saying "X is allowed therefore Y should be allowed". From a purely health POV, we should be completely locked down til everyone's jabbed. In the real world you have to trade off the health benefits with the social and economic costs, but the less contact we have the better for now.
There's going to be a few months of generational conflict, as the jabbed feel free to party but the younger generation are still vulnerable. Perhaps the best way to look at it is that the under 50's have put up with a year of pretty hard lockdown so that the over 50's don't die, now the over 50's can repay the favour by accepting three months of softer lockdown so that the under 50's don't get long Covid.
My one concern is getting the second *** within the time limit of 12 weeks, seeing as WHO said that was the absolute limit and it should be more like 3 or 4 weeks. Especially if there is a shortage on the horizon.
Don't worry about the shortage from that POV, there's enough to cover second jabs, the shortfall of AZ from India only affects the 40-somethings who will see their first jabs pushed back from April to May.
Also you have to remember that the "normal" spacing for adenovirus vaccines like Oxford-AZ and J&J is 3-4 months (and up to 6 months or more can be OK), the spacing was only cut to three weeks for the trial to speed it up. It's not like some fish going off in the fridge, if anything you'll get a better immune response from waiting longer.
There was more of a concern about delaying the Pfizer and Moderna jabs beyond three weeks, because they use mRNA which is less stable and as new technology we just weren't really sure how it would work in the real world. But the technology has come through for us and it seems to be OK, I suspect that it's because the response to the first *** is so good that the timing of the second is far less critical.
And when you're listening to manufacturers and the authorities talking about these things, you have to remember that they are mostly talking for the benefit of lawyers who want to sue for £billions, so they always play it by the book, with the minimum of risk. But that model doesn't always work in a wartime situation where doing things by the book can also get people killed. As is probably happening in places like Spain and Serbia, who are concentrating on getting 2 jabs into the oldest groups, at the expense of people in their 60s and 70s, some of whom will die as a result.