Covid-19 the second wave.

[Appleyard]

The only surprise to me, Mr Chippy_Tea, is that anyone is surprised, or that some people seem to ignore it. The whole thing started from literally a handful of people, maybe fewer, and has infected over 70 million worldwide in less than a year, and has killed nearly 2 million, with a larger number suffering liong-term effects, and it's still growing, with - even in highly affected countries - far more people having not yet had the virus than have had it.

This has more information in "easy format":

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
From the ONS:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...ruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/11december2020

 

[Northern_Brewer]

Perhaps table service, to help enforce social distancing?

Already compulsory in Tier 1 (2.3.2#2 of the guidelines), so irrelevant to the Scotch egg debate which applies in Tier 2. And it helps reduce close contact between people waiting at the bar, but doesn't do anything to reduce the time indoors, or to reduce the number of people. Your scientific advisers are demanding much greater reductions in risky behaviour - what rules do you put in place?

Note, I'm not particularly trying to defend the rules that the government have put in place - I think there's lots of ways in which they could be better (more emphasis on ventilation and on school-night drinking to name but two), I'm just trying to make the point that if you are trying to cut the number of risky contacts by half or more then you have to make bigger changes than just "table service", and you're probably going to end up having to draw lines in slightly arbitrary places.

 

[marshbrewer]

Already compulsory in Tier 1 (2.3.2#2 of the guidelines)

Yea, I knew that - that was my point, thus the following sentences. Ya know, sarcasm!?!? My point is (again) that once you have put in restrictions to limit numbers, enforce space, etc, the items being served are irrelevant.

I'm not convinced by your time indoors arguments / explanation. A three course meal with coffee and cheese board probably has people sat at these socially distanced tables about the same time as huge beer session. What's that you say? Most people don't go to restaurants for a three course meal with coffee and cheese board? No they don't. And the majority of drinkers aren't out for a session each time either.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

A substantial meal isn't a 3 course one with a cheese board and coffee but I get your drift.

I would feel a lot safer sitting in a room of families all eating a meal than in a room full of people out on the lash not eating.

 

[Covrich]

We are in flu season now aswell, so its gonna be rough now until April.

Hopefully by this point 8 or so million will have had the *** which will take the sting out of it a little bit.

 

[yrhendystu]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-55311717
New strain in south east England just in time for Christmas.

 

[Benfleet Brewery]

A substantial meal isn't a 3 course one with a cheese board and coffee but I get your drift.

A friend of mine has just returned from Center Parcs with his family. He wanted to watch the football match in the bar whilst he was there but obviously there was the substantial meal rule in place. However, although a bowl of fries wasn’t classed as substantial but, loaded fries were!

 

[CD]

I have just returned from having my first anti-covid ***, and although it was the first day the Tavistock Surgery was handling the mass vaccination, it couldn’t have gone smoother. They were getting through between 30 to 40 patients an hour I reckoned, and the only hold up was an obligatory 10 minute precautionary wait in a chair after the injection. Physically, I didn’t feel a thing.

 

[Covrich]

I have just returned from having my first anti-covid ***, and although it was the first day the Tavistock Surgery was handling the mass vaccination, it couldn’t have gone smoother. They were getting through between 30 to 40 patients an hour I reckoned, and the only hold up was an obligatory 10 minute precautionary wait in a chair after the injection. Physically, I didn’t feel a thing.

Awesome, so you have to go back in two weeks?

 

[Chippy_Tea]

However, although a bowl of fries wasn’t classed as substantial but, loaded fries were!

I had to google that, i would call that a substantial meal.

 

[Benfleet Brewery]

Awesome, so you have to go back in two weeks?

I have to agree.

 

[CD]

Awesome, so you have to go back in two weeks?

No, three weeks. Two minutes past nine on the morning of January 5th 2021 to be (very) precise!

 

[Northern_Brewer]

Brauner et al looked at what interventions had an effect - in short reducing the size of gatherings had the most effect in cutting R, followed by closing down education and face-to-face businesses, whereas forcing people to stay at home beyond that didn't have much impact.

 

[Appleyard]

Brauner et al looked at what interventions had an effect - in short reducing the size of gatherings had the most effect in cutting R, followed by closing down education and face-to-face businesses, whereas forcing people to stay at home beyond that didn't have much impact.

View attachment 37557

So basically, in all but the most extreme and uncertain circumstances, everything that the various governments have done has helped.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

My point is (again) that once you have put in restrictions to limit numbers, enforce space, etc, the items being served are irrelevant.

And you're missing the point that there's already "restrictions to limit numbers, enforce space" in Tier 1 - this is about setting rules to *further* restrict the number of people in Tiers 2 and 3. And one way to cut the number of people going to the pub, is to say "don't go to the pub if you're just drinking".

I'm not saying it's the best way to do things, but that's the intention. And to be honest, if the pub is set up for the high fixed costs of a kitchen but capacity is reduced 50% or more, then from a business POV the pub would prefer that everyone is dining.

I'm not convinced by your time indoors arguments / explanation. A three course meal with coffee and cheese board probably has people sat at these socially distanced tables about the same time as huge beer session. What's that you say? Most people don't go to restaurants for a three course meal with coffee and cheese board? No they don't. And the majority of drinkers aren't out for a session each time either.

I would feel a lot safer sitting in a room of families all eating a meal than in a room full of people out on the lash not eating.

And that is clearly the perspective that is driving these rules. I'm not saying it's the best way, but it's why we've got the rules we have.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

So basically, in all but the most extreme and uncertain circumstances, everything that the various governments have done has helped.

Except for threatening legal action against Greenwich schools that were planning to go virtual from today to make sure that any child forced to isolate would be back in circulation for Christmas day. I do generally try and cut politicians some slack for having to make difficult decisions that often have no right answer, but I despair sometimes, this kind of stuff is just so flipping tone-deaf.

 

[Appleyard]

I was commenting on your chart.

 

[marshbrewer]

And one way to cut the number of people going to the pub, is to say "don't go to the pub if you're just drinking".

I'm not saying it's the best way to do things, but that's the intention. And to be honest, if the pub is set up for the high fixed costs of a kitchen but capacity is reduced 50% or more, then from a business POV the pub would prefer that everyone is dining.

Those two positions appear mutually exclusive. If the Covid secure rules have reduced capacity so that it is the limiting factor, e.g. demand outstrips supply, you do not reduce consumption of that product by artificially reducing demand.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

If the Covid secure rules have reduced capacity so that it is the limiting factor, e.g. demand outstrips supply, you do not reduce consumption of that product by artificially reducing demand.

I think you'll have to clarify what capacity you think is being reduced, and what demand/consumption you are talking about.

For the sake of argument, let's say that Tier 1 rules reduce capacity to 70%. Now the advisers want to reduce the total capacity of pubs to 30%, through a combination of reducing the capacity of wet-only pubs to 0%, and pubs with kitchens to 50%. (arbitrary numbers for the sake of argument)

 

[Northern_Brewer]

I was commenting on your chart.

And I was commenting on the fact that the chart suggests closing education is one of the best things to do, yet the government was threatening legal action to stop education closures.