Ban on new petrol and diesel cars in UK from 2030 under PM's green plan

[dad_of_jon]

we need bob lazar to save us...

 

[Northern_Brewer]

Bob Lazar can't change the fact that hydrogen cars have half the energy efficiency of an electric car.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

So you need hydride but its a weapon material so you cannot buy it you can make your own though but if you live in a 2 up 2 down that isn't going to happen, i have a feeling i now know why Hydrogen cars haven't caught on when you can simply plug an EV into the mains at home and if you have solar panels you can charge it with free electricity.

The other problem is its an odourless gas that cannot have an odour added (as other odourless gasses have)as it doesn't like it so if you has a leak into your car you wouldn't know, light a ciggy - BOOM.

 

[JockyBrewer]

So you need hydride but its a weapon material so you cannot buy it you can make your own though but if you live in a 2 up 2 down that isn't going to happen, i have a feeling i now know why Hydrogen cars haven't caught on when you can simply plug an EV into the mains at home and if you have solar panels you can charge it with free electricity.

The other problem is its an odourless gas that cannot have an odour added (as other odourless gasses have)as it doesn't like it so if you has a leak into your car you wouldn't know, light a ciggy - BOOM.

I think the main issue is the first one you mention - infrastructure. EVs could piggy back off the existing grid infrastructure. Hydrogen needed to have a nation wide network of fuelling stations built, with specific equipment. It could work for people running local fleets that come back to a depot to refuel (buses, trains, local delivery vehicles), but not for general public usage.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

It could work for people running local fleets that come back to a depot to refuel (buses, trains, local delivery vehicles), but not for general public usage.

Battery swapping stations could this be the way to get round charging points and LGV high milages.

 

[jof]

I have thought this was a sensible thing to do, but the realities of our capitalist culture won't allow this to work unless everyone had the same car (or car built on same chassis design).
But manufacturers are in competition with each other & people don't want to all drive the same car do they.

 

[hemanresu]

As i see it "probably the best car for the environment when compared to those that burn fossil fuel" is likely more accurate.

a bit long winded but yes,better than zero emissiom

 

[MmmBeer]

I have thought this was a sensible thing to do, but the realities of our capitalist culture won't allow this to work unless everyone had the same car (or car built on same chassis design).
But manufacturers are in competition with each other & people don't want to all drive the same car do they.

But surely having a car that was 'Battery Swap Compatible' would be a selling point. It would not be necessary for every car type, for instance most small town cars rarely travel more than 30 miles, but for the 'repmobiles' and motorway mile munchers, it would be a necessity. And it would be in the interest of the likes of BMW, Audi, Tesla etc. to work to a compatible format.

 

[marshbrewer]

I have thought this was a sensible thing to do, but the realities of our capitalist culture won't allow this to work

What type if port does your capitalist produced laptop have for memory sticks and other devices? What type does your neighbors have?

Basically, what @MmmBeer says. If consumers demand something (i.e. battery compatibility), producers will provide it.

 

[Bill_g]

I've been reading up on this lately and it doesn't look as though any of the major car manufacturers are likely to go down the replaceable battery route, in fact quite the opposite. In the recent Tesla 'Battery Day' presentation Tesla revealed some details of their new 4680 cell and the intention to make the battery structure very much integral to the vehicle chassis thus saving a lot of weight whilst lowering cost, improving battery performance and thermal management. This approach is much endorsed by the manufacturing guru Sandy Munro (see Youtube Munro Live). Tesla have the current lead in EV technology and are investing massively to maintain and increase their lead. Seems unlikely that they are wrong. Substantially it comes down to cost of manufacture and weight. Incidentally Tesla are intending to launch a $25000 car within the next 3 years. Also we are going to see a lot of cheap EVs appearing from the Far East very soon I think.
On the topic of liquid hydrogen, it almost certainly has a place for commercial vehicles, trains etc that do a regular daily high mileage but there are lots of issues for domestic vehicles that spend most of their time parked up. Liquid hydrogen needs to be stored cryogenically to avoid the need for immensely heavy storage tanks. So in practical terms it needs to be used quickly before it warms up and has to be vented off. I've seen mention of the use of solid hydrates but only for specialist military applications, so probably a lot of issues with cost etc. Another major factor is the low efficiency of the overal hydrogen system. Dr Jeff Dahn pointed out in a recent presentation that there are several processes involved: generation of hydrogen, transport & distribution, storage, conversion back to usable energy. Each of course are less than 100% efficient. The net result is that around 3x the electrical generating capacity would be required compared to an EV fleet based on li-ion batteries which are about 90% efficient in charge and discharge.
It's a complex topic, lots of counter arguments and vested interests. It will be fascinating to see how it all pans out.
By the way another good entertaining & informative Youtube channel worth a look is Fully Charged which covers all aspects of EVs & green energy.

One thing for sure is that brewing beer is a lot simpler ... and that's complicated enough sometimes!

 

[Chippy_Tea]

It's a complex topic, lots of counter arguments and vested interests. It will be fascinating to see how it all pans out.
One thing for sure is that brewing beer is a lot simpler ... and that's complicated enough sometimes!

Aint that the truth.

 

[Northern_Brewer]

But surely having a car that was 'Battery Swap Compatible' would be a selling point. It would not be necessary for every car type, for instance most small town cars rarely travel more than 30 miles, but for the 'repmobiles' and motorway mile munchers, it would be a necessity. And it would be in the interest of the likes of BMW, Audi, Tesla etc. to work to a compatible format.

Right now it's debatable how important "fast replenishment" is - I can't remember the exact figures but it's something like >90% of cars never go more than 200 miles in a day so will never need to charge away from home. Even a rep doing 40,000 miles a year is only averaging 167 miles per weekday (x 48 weeks), which any of the What Car top-10-by-range cars ("real" range 196-259 miles ) could handle. Obviously there will be days when they do more than that and will need some kind of replenishment, but the current state of the art on range is not that far away even for repmobiles. Since batteries are a major cost, it looks like we're heading for a market in which battery size will be one of the major specs like engine size for petrol cars - the new VW ID.3 has a standard list range of ~260 miles, but has a version with 337 miles at a ~10% premium (but heavier, so ~10% slower), and apparently a cheaper one is planned with 205 miles range.

And the current recharging state of the art can deliver >200 miles of charge in 30-40 minutes. So 15-20 minutes to take a 200-mile range up to 300-miles, which is enough for most people. So you have to ask - what is the market opportunity for any kind of replenishment that is much faster than that, whether faster recharging or battery replacement? At the very most, it's going to be a niche, which means it will be expensive, which means it will be even more of a niche. I guess the big opportunity would be for people who can't charge at home or at work, but I'm not sure that's going to be such a big market either.

I'm unusual, I regularly have to do a 250-mile journey, and sometimes do a 500-mile journey. I used to have a petrol car with ~270-mile range so I know how it feels to do these journeys with limited range. It would be very tempting to buy a long-range version that could do the 250 miles without stopping - I regularly do it like that but as often as not my bladder can't, and to be honest it is nice to stretch one's legs during a journey like that. So I could live with a 10-minute fast charge en route just as a quick top-up. But it's worth noting that I don't care about any extra range beyond that 250 miles (beyond a bit of allowance for battery degradation and doing it in winter).

Doing the long journey I often make a special trip to the garage the night before to top up the tank. But with the old car I'd still do two full fill-ups en route, one at lunchtime (when I take a 30-40 minute break), and one just before the end, to give me juice to potter round at the other end, as filling stations are pretty scarce around there. In an equivalent electric car I'd have no special trip to the garage, I could rapid-charge 200 miles of range over lunch and then I'd just need another stop of 20 minutes or so to get me to the end, but that's all I'd need as I could slow-charge overnight to cover my onwards needs. So although I'm in the top 10%, probably top 5%, of "most distance driven in a day", mainstream electric technology can accommodate me with pretty minimal changes to how I drive, maybe 10 minutes extra on the long drive. Which is a mild nuisance, but it's not worth going to a niche technology like hydrogen or battery swaps for. And of course, battery range and recharging will only get better.

I appreciate that other long-distance drivers will not be accommodated so easily and might prepared to pay possibly a substantial premium for that kind of technology - for instance a lone driver needs stops, whereas if you have two people driving your limiting factors are bladders and the queue to buy some sandwiches. But you're talking a few percent of the market at most.

So I don't think technology is so much the problem, as the details of roll-out. For instance, I'd be OK rapid-charging whilst I have my lunch, but only if I know I can rock up to a charger and start straight away, which makes lots of assumptions about investment in infrastructure that might only be used a fairly small amount of the time. Having to wait 40 minutes before I could start charging would be a pain, a journey that takes 8 hours is long enough as it is - and for that one trip I'd be prepared to pay if it meant I could guarantee a slot.

As for standardisation - Tesla's chargers have shown that it's not essential. OTOH, it has been recognised as something that is very useful, and gov.uk is forcing the non-manufacturer charging companies to come up with a "universal" system for charging by next year. Whilst a standard battery pack is a nice aspiration, I can see that even if all the major manufacturers were to go for it (which as per above, seems pretty unlikely), you'd probably only end up with 6-8 different packs - and probably fewer as there would be some collaborations. Which would be a bit of a pain, but manageable for a refueling station to handle. And you could imagine the market creating a "universal" pack that had say 70% of the capacity of normal packs, but was small enough to physically fit in all the main battery slots with the help of an adapter.

But as I say, I think we're generally talking about something that would be fairly niche.

 

[Duxuk]

So few EV fanatics ever tackle perhaps the biggest drawback of battery power. As one of the top men at Nissan said when they released the Leaf "the life of the battery determines the life of the car". Back then they didn't realise that the batteries would average a mere 50-70,000 miles. Who'd replace a battery for a minimum of £6,000 when the car would then only be worth a few grand like most car are after a few years? It doesn't make economic sense. Hydrogen is a better solution but I'd still want an ICE to process it. With fuel cells being barely more efficient than ICEs it would be economical to save vast amounts on the purchase price and be sure that children weren't being sent down cobalt mines.
So you think that a battery will last for ever? How long does an I phone battery or laptop battery last? 300 full charges and uses is the answer. Even Elon Musk admits this figure.

 

[Duxuk]

e.

And the current recharging state of the art can deliver >200 miles of charge in 30-40 minutes. So 15-20 minutes to take a 200-mile range up to 300-miles, which is enough for most people. So you have to ask - what is the market opportunity for any kind of replenishment that is much faster than that, whether faster recharging or battery replacement? At the very most, it's going to be a niche, which means it will be expensive, which means it will be even more of a niche. I guess the big opportunity would be for people who can't charge at home or at work, but I'm not sure that's going to be such a big market either.

I'm unusual, I regularly have to do a 250-mile journey, and sometimes do a 500-mile journey. I used to have a petrol car with ~270-mile range so I know how it feels to do these journeys with limited range. It would be very tempting to buy a long-range version that could do the 250 miles without stopping - I regularly do it like that but as often as not my bladder can't, and to be honest it is nice to stretch one's legs during a journey like that. So I could live with a 10-minute fast charge en route just as a quick top-up. But it's worth noting that I don't care about any extra range beyond that 250 miles (beyond a bit of allowance for battery degradation and doing it in winter).

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So I don't think technology is so much the problem, as the details of roll-out. For instance, I'd be OK rapid-charging whilst I have my lunch, but only if I know I can rock up to a charger and start straight away, which makes lots of assumptions about investment in infrastructure that might only be used a fairly small amount of the time. Having to wait 40 minutes before I could start charging would be a pain, a journey that takes 8 hours is long enough as it is - and for that one trip I'd be prepared to pay if it meant I could guarantee a slot.

Whatever you do don't rapid charge! You'll only get 300 charge/discharge cycles if you charge nice and slowly. I have, for reference owned 2 electric vehicles and have an extensive knowledge of battery technology. I even have a degree in chemistry so my knowledge isn't just something I picked up online.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Who'd replace a battery for a minimum of £6,000 when the car would then only be worth a few grand like most car are after a few years?

The problem with EV's is we think of them like we do petrol/diesel cars, when the battery eventually fail's you are basically left with a electric motor and wheels there are few components that wear out unlike in a Diesel/petrol car so putting a new battery into an EV is not such a bad idea, the longevity and range will improve and the price of batteries will come down as EV's become popular .

As it says below Nissan offer a 5 year and 60.000 mile guarantee on batteries and later said they had a 2013 Leaf used as a taxi which had covered more than 100,000 miles without losing any of its battery life.

I watched a video a few days ago where a specialist EV battery company (they will be springing up everywhere soon) had an older EV that was reporting a battery problem meaning it wouldn't hold a full charge they found a bad cell replaced it and it was fine again total cost for a full days work including parts was £500, as i said above we are thinking of EV's and their batteries as one if the battery has a fault it may be repairable and if not you don't have to scrap the car.

Quotes from what car -

Nissan offers a warranty covering the battery and electric motor for up to five years or 60,000 miles.

Elsewhere, Renault’s warranty covers the Zoe electric hatchback for up to 100,000 miles or three years, while Tesla offers an eight-year warranty on the Model S that’s not subject to any mileage and can be transferred between owners.

It’s also worth noting that there are cases where an electric car battery has long since surpassed expectations. In 2015, for example, Nissan reported the case of a Leaf that was bought in 2013 to be used as a taxi around Cornwall. The car had covered more than 100,000 miles without losing any of its battery life.

 

[Chippy_Tea]

Well worth £20

 

[Duxuk]

The Renault warranty is amusing. You try covering 100,000 EV miles in 3 years. It's not just recharging which degrades batteries. Time is an equal enemy. You may find, for instance, that you can do 60,000 miles in 5 years but if you try to do that mileage over 10 years things might not go so well. I promise this is my last post on this subject. I've been mentally damaged by EVs! I can't afford therapy, also due to EV ownership

 

[Chippy_Tea]

It's not just recharging which degrades batteries. Time is an equal enemy. You may find, for instance, that you can do 60,000 miles in 5 years

This is the problem with people who have decided these things are a waste of space and it doesn't matter how much those that think they are the way forward (like me) prove the opposite they still posts the same negative stuff over and over again.



2013 Zoe 13,000 miles only lost 2% battery condition,

2014 Zoe 35.000 miles 98% battery condition.

2013 Leaf tested lost 17% in 95,000 miles.

Leaf battery packs don't have forced air cooling so degrade slightly faster than other makes
He goes on to say the battery state of health will improve after a few rapid charges (its been sat awhile due to lockdown) he also said they are good for the battery as long as you don't do them repeatedly.



How long to batteries last in an electric vehicle? Here's some 7 year old EVs

 

[Northern_Brewer]

So few EV fanatics ever tackle perhaps the biggest drawback of battery power. As one of the top men at Nissan said when they released the Leaf "the life of the battery determines the life of the car". Back then they didn't realise that the batteries would average a mere 50-70,000 miles.

Except modern ones don't - and the comparison with phone batteries doesn't work because phones don't have the thermal management of car power packs.
We're just repeating ourselves now. See eg #51 :

the average British car is scrapped after 14 years and around 100,000 miles. Tesla is currently quoting battery lives of 300-500,000 miles, mainstream manufacturers around half that. Battery life is not an issue for normal cars, although Tesla are aiming for million-mile batteries for bus and truck use. It's more a question of what to do with perfectly good battery packs with 80+% of their capacity left, once the cars around them wear out - it looks like they'll be used in homes/offices for storing cheap nighttime electricity. Also the batteries don't stop working, they just slowly lose capacity - but that actually suits how cars are used, the demanding users tend to buy newish cars, whereas the 10+ cars tend to do rather lower mileages so a battery with 80-90% capacity is less of an issue.

 

[Hanglow]

My brother has had his Tesla batteries replaced twice already, under warranty thankfully. They also did a software update that rendered the parking brake somewhat useless, the fix though had to be mechanical rather than redoing the software

I am excited to think of the future of electric cars though, there really are still in their infancy. Lots to like about them